ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#41 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:18 pm


This is probably already close to its initial expected peak (50 kt). H in cone at 5 maybe?
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:19 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:

This is probably already close to its initial expected peak (50 kt). H in cone at 5 maybe?


It's not out of the question, especially if it is trying to get an eye going.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#43 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:46 pm

We now officially have Gaston!

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GASTON...

9:00 PM GMT Tue Sep 20
Location: 34.7°N 44.4°W
Moving: NNE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#44 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:We now officially have Gaston!

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GASTON...

9:00 PM GMT Tue Sep 20
Location: 34.7°N 44.4°W
Moving: NNE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Wayyy too low. One of those moments where I heavily disagree with their analysis. If trends continue I think they might have to issue a special advisory once Dvorak estimates pick up.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#45 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:52 pm

The University of Wisconsin-Madison's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies has a tropical cyclone intensity estimator based on IR satellite imagery. They have TD 8 between 40-50 knots.

Source - https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... ry_IR.html

Image
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#46 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:00 pm

Since when does a 40 mph TS have an eye feature like this!?

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Gaston.png
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#47 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:01 pm

Playing Eye Spy already. 35kt is too low, not just because of the system's appearance, but how ASCAT usually has a ~5kt low bias. Also that pass was from when this was still classified as TD. I don't get why they weren't like "and based on continuing satellite improvement, the initial intensity is set slightly higher" like has been done for other systems.
Image
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#48 Postby Stormybajan » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:07 pm

aspen wrote:Playing Eye Spy already. 35kt is too low, not just because of the system's appearance, but how ASCAT usually has a ~5kt low bias. Also that pass was from when this was still classified as TD. I don't get why they weren't like "and based on continuing satellite improvement, the initial intensity is set slightly higher" like has been done for other systems.
https://i.imgur.com/umH5Y8C.jpg

Atleast 45 knots would be safe bet for this...might even reach 60 mph tonight at this rate. Will the hurricane streak stay alive?
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#49 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:11 pm

Looks like it's trying to sneak out an eye
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#50 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:16 pm

These types of storms always pull a sneak move and suddenly develop an eye. Had a feeling Gaston was going to do this too. Maybe get our 4th straight hurricane out of this.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#51 Postby Landy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:26 pm

Image
:lol:
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#52 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:44 pm

Yeah this might need a special advisory lol
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#53 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:54 pm

Almost as if Gaston was given the chance to fall in love with Beauty, but under the condition that he strengthens into a hurricane and defies forecasts :D
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#54 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:58 pm

40mph tropical storm looks better than some major hurricanes.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#55 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:58 pm

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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#56 Postby Owasso » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:27 pm

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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:28 pm

Rumors of the Atlantics’ death were greatly exaggerated.

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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#58 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:29 pm



The memes with "The weakest tropical cyclone with an eyewall" will explode with this one. :lol:
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#59 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:15 pm

Well, if we can have the video below made for the last Gaston, might as well bring it back :lol:



Link: https://youtu.be/KHDtEd87gwM

On a more serious note - definitely making a run at hurricane status, even if now it is struggling somewhat convectively. With that microwave structure it should bounce back pretty well overnight, though there will obviously be a couple of hiccups or two. Will end up being a brief hurricane starting tomorrow afternoon before conditions worsen as long as it can take advantage like it did today. Always nice to have some eye candy well away from land.

Edit: As a sidenote, did not realize the Youtube embed was messed up, probably some change Google did :(
Last edited by NXStumpy_Robothing on Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#60 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:19 pm

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:Well, if we can have the video below made for the last Gaston, might as well bring it back :lol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHDtEd87gwM

On a more serious note - definitely making a run at hurricane status, even if now it is struggling somewhat convectively. With that microwave structure it should bounce back pretty well overnight, though there will obviously be a couple of hiccups or two. Will end up being a brief hurricane starting tomorrow afternoon before conditions worsen as long as it can take advantage like it did today. Always nice to have some eye candy well away from land.

Edit: As a sidenote, did not realize the Youtube embed was messed up, probably some change Google did :(


The only way it would work is if you copy the link directly from the video, in which it would be under 'youtu.be'.
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