ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SapphireSea]

Didn't think the NWS would introduce tropical storm conditions for Pensacola already


I don't think the criteria for "ts conditions possible" is very high. Maybe one of our NWS staff members could provide some clarity. When is says "ts conditions likely" then you're cooking with gas.

I believe the two nomenclatures are "TS Conditions Possible" ergo a soft " TS Watch" and "TS Conditions Expected" which is a soft "TS Warning". I think I have seen Possible at any TS wind chance above 0%. Expected I believe is probobly 80%-100%.

[jlauderdal]

Didn't think the NWS would introduce tropical storm conditions for Pensacola already


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/d13d92a63b5fa7a8bb0799a1c8d8aa90.jpg

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

Seems like a very reasonable forecast

The NWS is also calling for TS conditions in Southeast Florida on Wednesday night, I’m fairly certain this has more to do with TS wind probabilities in any given area instead of the weather service actually expecting these winds to occur. Not sure TS winds would be occurring in Boca Raton at the same time as they are occurring in Pensacola.

Possible TS conditons and based on the modeling, both offices can make a decent case for their forecast

[skyline385]

Looks ready

[MetroMike]

On Wednesday night the Tampa bay office of NWS calls for hurricane conditions possible FWIW.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Besides several relatives I have down there, a good friend from Maine is vacationing in the Tampa Bay Area until Tuesday or Wednesday I told him not to go but he said "I'll be fine these things are seldom as serious as the media claims", oh boy.

[chris_fit]

On Wednesday night the Tampa bay office of NWS calls for hurricane conditions possible FWIW.

Same for me in Parrish...

[cycloneye]

Still some shear.

A. 09L (IAN)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 14.9N

D. 77.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVR W
QUAD SUGGESTING SOME SHEAR. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION
AND UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2035Z 14.7N 76.5W SSMIS


...KONON

[Iceresistance]

Alright, I'm back and that NHC forecast is INSANE!

[Iceresistance]

ADT has this at 50 knots

[cycloneye]

50 mph.

AL, 09, 2022092500, , BEST, 0, 146N, 772W, 45, 1002, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

[SouthernBreeze]

NHC calling for hurricane winds by 2 AM Sun - gonna have to start picking up steam soon to hit that!

[Iceresistance]

I forget exactly when the next recon departs for this system. But when is it?

[Iceresistance]

NHC calling for hurricane winds by 2 AM Sun - gonna have to start picking up steam soon to hit that!

Even though it's in an area of lower OHC, it will eventually get to an area of extremely favorable conditions that will literally cause this to explode in intensity, the chances for RI/VRI is very high and the NHC is taking no chances.

[skillz305]

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

[StPeteMike]

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

No doubt. And the one after that as well, they’ll have more information.

[jlauderdal]

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

No doubt. And the one after that as well, they’ll have more information.

What additonal info will they have to push the track east?

[cycloneye]

I forget exactly when the next recon departs for this system. But when is it?

Ready to go.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 4#p2994974

[tropicwatch]

Starting early.

[Blown Away]

Still some shear.

A. 09L (IAN)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 14.9N

D. 77.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVR W
QUAD SUGGESTING SOME SHEAR. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION
AND UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2035Z 14.7N 76.5W SSMIS


...KONON

INIT 24/2100Z 14.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.6N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

Ian already at 14.9N? That’s a decent N adjustment if I’m reading correctly?

[gatorcane]

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

I doubt we will see much of a track change at 11. The NHC 5pm track was east of the multi-model consensus and even though that consensus as shifted east some, it is still close enough to the NHC track to not adjust. The NHC will wait to see what the Gulf Stream data does with the 00Z guidance and adjust at 5AM accordingly.