ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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birdwomn
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1841 Postby birdwomn » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:18 pm

caneman wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Michele B wrote:


That's what I took away from it!

I finally just quit trying to explain anything to any of them!


Complacency might run higher in the Tampa Bay Area than some others. The last major hurricane to impact the area was 1921 and they have the reputation of having the “Tampa Bay deflector shield” due to so many hurricanes which look to threaten but pass well offshore (or weaken as the last minute) typically impacting the panhandle or Big Bend instead. They did get some impact from some storms like Frances in 2004 and Irma in 2017 but those storms were shells of their former selves by the time they went through. CAT 4/5 Charley in 2004 was the ultimate example. Models had the area pegged day of but somehow that hurricane veered over to Punta Gorda instead.


I wouldn't say shell, theyre weren't cake walks.. I live near the beaches in Pinellas. Got 70 mph winds from Frances and Jeanne and both took my power put for 6 days each. Irma was around 90 mph here on the beach and it took my power out for 5 days. Yes not a major but we've had enough taste to know what it can be like and should know how much worse it could be except the many newbies to the area. Locals have no excuses. Hurricane Elena plus many other high end tropical storms


Actually, being a native Floridian and living in Pinellas County near the beach for the last 35 years, Irma was a wake up call for many folks around here. We used both Irma and Charley as practice runs to put the evacuation plans we made when we moved to this house into motion. We worked out plan and our plan worked. Others did not and ended up in shelters at the last minute - they were very frightened and learned quite a bit. As of now, we are planning to stay put this time.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1842 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:19 pm

Ian’s improvement since the convective burst is apparent, banding features are increasingly evident.

Also, not really sure how to save a loop like this and post it, so I’ll just post the url. If someone who knows could dm me I’d appreciate it

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1843 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:28 pm

Personally I think the NHC should think about doing a position correction. It appears to be too far north and east compared to what the recon reported.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1844 Postby psyclone » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:30 pm

Latest EURO is another terrible run for team west coast.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1845 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:31 pm

The center looks to be wobbling around some more. This second fix was nearly half a degree further west but only 1/10th of a degree further north. Maybe Ian is doing some stair-stepping, maybe the center is shifting as the eyewall consolidates, maybe recon missed the exact LLC. Hopefully the third pass nails the center and gives us a better picture of what’s going on.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1846 Postby KC7NEC » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:31 pm

tropicwatch wrote:Personally I think the NHC should think about doing a position correction. It appears to be too far north and east compared to what the recon reported.


They will be at the 11 pm advisory.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1847 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:36 pm

aspen wrote:The center looks to be wobbling around some more. This second fix was nearly half a degree further west but only 1/10th of a degree further north. Maybe Ian is doing some stair-stepping, maybe the center is shifting as the eyewall consolidates, maybe recon missed the exact LLC. Hopefully the third pass nails the center and gives us a better picture of what’s going on.


They flew through the northern part of the small central circulation on the first fix wind barbs aren't perpendicular.
Low level center isn't perfectly aligned and they wanted to get the lowest surface pressure.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1848 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:36 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1849 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:38 pm

birdwomn wrote:
caneman wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Complacency might run higher in the Tampa Bay Area than some others. The last major hurricane to impact the area was 1921 and they have the reputation of having the “Tampa Bay deflector shield” due to so many hurricanes which look to threaten but pass well offshore (or weaken as the last minute) typically impacting the panhandle or Big Bend instead. They did get some impact from some storms like Frances in 2004 and Irma in 2017 but those storms were shells of their former selves by the time they went through. CAT 4/5 Charley in 2004 was the ultimate example. Models had the area pegged day of but somehow that hurricane veered over to Punta Gorda instead.


I wouldn't say shell, theyre weren't cake walks.. I live near the beaches in Pinellas. Got 70 mph winds from Frances and Jeanne and both took my power put for 6 days each. Irma was around 90 mph here on the beach and it took my power out for 5 days. Yes not a major but we've had enough taste to know what it can be like and should know how much worse it could be except the many newbies to the area. Locals have no excuses. Hurricane Elena plus many other high end tropical storms


Actually, being a native Floridian and living in Pinellas County near the beach for the last 35 years, Irma was a wake up call for many folks around here. We used both Irma and Charley as practice runs to put the evacuation plans we made when we moved to this house into motion. We worked out plan and our plan worked. Others did not and ended up in shelters at the last minute - they were very frightened and learned quite a bit. As of now, we are planning to stay put this time.


Were you guys there for Wilma?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1850 Postby d3v123 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:39 pm

Thoughts on latest Euro shifting a bit to the west?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1851 Postby REDHurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:39 pm

Lol I thought we knew better than to analyze every single new frame of satellite imagery to determine how a storm will evolve! What we know is that Ian is currently a tropical storm that is going to intensify over the next 48 hours into a hurricane -- 10 minute incremental changes of a TC's satellite appearance mean less than nothing at this point to help us predict the eventual outcome. I've been compulsively refreshing my weather tabs at least every few minutes too, but I think it's important not to allow the momentary dopamine bursts we get from seeing each new piece of information to affect our overall perception of the situation

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Last edited by REDHurricane on Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1852 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:42 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1853 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:45 pm

psyclone wrote:Latest EURO is another terrible run for team west coast.


They’re all getting worse and worse. Wonder if they start to lock in now or continue flipping back and forth… Ian hasn’t been playing nicely with forecasters so far.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1854 Postby Jr0d » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:45 pm

aspen wrote:The center looks to be wobbling around some more. This second fix was nearly half a degree further west but only 1/10th of a degree further north. Maybe Ian is doing some stair-stepping, maybe the center is shifting as the eyewall consolidates, maybe recon missed the exact LLC. Hopefully the third pass nails the center and gives us a better picture of what’s going on.


Based on radar, it looks like the eye is open to the SW, so if they missed southwest this would explain the light winds with higher pressure than the previous pass
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1855 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:46 pm

d3v123 wrote:Thoughts on latest Euro shifting a bit to the west?


It comes really Far East almost into tampa and then starts heading north again. Weird run all together. I’d like to dig into it more to see what causes that.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1856 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:47 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1857 Postby otowntiger » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:50 pm

d3v123 wrote:Thoughts on latest Euro shifting a bit to the west?

It likely means that the eastward shifts are done and the Euro and GFS are beginning to sort out their differences and settle on a solution somewhere north of Tampa to SW of the big bend.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1858 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:51 pm

psyclone wrote:Latest EURO is another terrible run for team west coast.


Yes bitterly disappointing. Well it's been 100 years since a CAT 3 hit Tampa. This last Euro run will inundate large portions of the Tampa Bay and coastal region.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1859 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:52 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1860 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:56 pm

00Z TVCN is in - landfall west of Tampa near Clearwater before sunrise on Thursday. I know NHC will be adjusting their track east. I don't think the consensus is done shifting east, though. It would not surprise me at all if it moves inland south of Tampa. That would be a lot better for Tampa than the current TVCN. If you live anywhere in that region, prepare for a hurricane. Intensity is still a bit question mark, but even an average-sized Cat 2 could put 14-18 feet of water into northern Tampa Bay.
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