ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

NHC track is in line with 12Z TVCN, and very close to my track. I do have lots of doubt about the track beyond Tuesday. It bugs me that some models have shifted the track farther offshore Wed/Thu. On the bright side, it would mean less severe impacts to the western Peninsula. It would also mean a weaker hurricane at landfall if it tracks any west of the current forecast, possibly only a TS at landfall. Would likely be hard hit by shear and dry air intrusion. We won't really be confident in where it will eventually go for another day or so.

Even if Ian landfalls as a Tropical Storm like wxman says it might, rainfall and flooding will still be a big issue, even if wind isn't an issue....

[eastcoastFL]

High likelihood of a tiny maybe pinhole eye coming soon..

https://i.ibb.co/3hYR9tw/eye.png

What do you see that tells you that?

[eastcoastFL]

[aspen]

High likelihood of a tiny maybe pinhole eye coming soon..

https://i.ibb.co/3hYR9tw/eye.png

Must be the remnants of an original eye. This is quite similar to the HAFS, which has shown a pinhole inside a larger eye up until landfall.

[Iceresistance]

High likelihood of a tiny maybe pinhole eye coming soon..

https://i.ibb.co/3hYR9tw/eye.png

What do you see that tells you that?

It may be trying to close off a smaller eye.

[underthwx]

High likelihood of a tiny maybe pinhole eye coming soon..

https://i.ibb.co/3hYR9tw/eye.png

What do you see that tells you that?

Looks like within the eye, some banding wrapping around into maybe a smaller eye?

[karenfromheaven]

If you like Tampa, don't go to the models thread. Posting this here to ask if someone knows whether new recon data was used as input for the 12z models, because otherwise I'm very surprised how such a big shift east is possible within 60 hrs?

Pretty sure current data is getting into the runs. The model ensembles have a huge spread out in the northern gulf. It doesn't take much difference in the individual weights to shift the combined average left or right.

[MGC]

Looks like the dry slot is starting to fill, should allow for further intensification this afternoon. Ian has been expending its energy on expanding its wind field. Wind field is expected to expand which should put most of the Tampa metro area in at least TS force winds. Large waves will ride atop the surge causing considerable damage and destruction......MGC

From the 11am advisory:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 82.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1574436377508413441

[AdamFirst]

Eye starting to show on visible.

[wxman57]

Eye starting to show on visible.

That's a dry slot rotating around the center.

[Sanibel]

If it wasn't nerve-racking enough already, Euro and GFS have now switched and Euro is further west in the Gulf and GFS has a slow grinder hitting Tampa...


Which, for any smart-thinking hurricane watcher on Sanibel, means if GFS verifies slightly south of its present prediction that Sanibel will be hit by a powerful stalling storm that pumps surge and damaging winds for a full day as it slowly grinds the island down...

[wxman57]

I just had a good laugh. After forecasting Ian to make landfall in Lake Charles a few days ago (and everywhere else along the Gulf Coast), the GFS now shifts to just north of Tampa. Makes me worried it's coming to Texas now.

[Tireman4]

I just had a good laugh. After forecasting Ian to make landfall in Lake Charles a few days ago (and everywhere else along the Gulf Coast), the GFS now shifts to just north of Tampa. Makes me worried it's coming to Texas now.

Now cut that out, sir. Sheesh.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eye starting to show on visible.

That's a dry slot rotating around the center.

There are a couple of hot towers making quick work of that dry slot.

[Aric Dunn]

Eyewall convection is building around what should be a pretty tiny eye soon.

[skillz305]

I just had a good laugh. After forecasting Ian to make landfall in Lake Charles a few days ago (and everywhere else along the Gulf Coast), the GFS now shifts to just north of Tampa. Makes me worried it's coming to Texas now.

Oh no! Texas be prepared /sarcasm . What are the chances the hurricane cuts thru central Florida? As the 12z model track guidance shows? Not talked about much

[birdwomn]

If it wasn't nerve-racking enough already, Euro and GFS have now switched and Euro is further west in the Gulf and GFS has a slow grinder hitting Tampa...


Which, for any smart-thinking hurricane watcher on Sanibel, means if GFS verifies slightly south of its present prediction that Sanibel will be hit by a powerful stalling storm that pumps surge and damaging winds for a full day as it slowly grinds the island down...

I was downright annoyed when I saw those runs.

[d3v123]

I just had a good laugh. After forecasting Ian to make landfall in Lake Charles a few days ago (and everywhere else along the Gulf Coast), the GFS now shifts to just north of Tampa. Makes me worried it's coming to Texas now.

I'm still sitting here in Bradenton, unsure as ever LOL. I've told people to stop asking me what I think anymore

[wxman57]

Eyewall convection is building around what should be a pretty tiny eye soon.

https://i.ibb.co/9hVwg99/eye.png

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.