ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
The latest SHIPS is still ridiculous with 33% chance of 25 kts increase in 24 hours and 26% chance of 30 kts in 24 hours. The max potential intensity also remains between 161-171 kts for the next 48 hours. Ian is not done yet unfortunately.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Wow, Ian's eye still looks great 2.5 hrs after making landfall, definitely it was on a strengthening phase prior to making landfall.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Woke up to no more doubt about evacuating this morning! Getting the last boards up and outta here
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Recon is about to make an eye pass over Cuba, has this happened before?
I don't think I've ever seen an eye pass over *land* before, much less Cuba.
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Tornado warning for Islamorada (Middle Keys) as of this post. 2nd one in that general area tonight.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:The latest SHIPS is still ridiculous with 33% chance of 25 kts increase in 24 hours and 26% chance of 30 kts in 24 hours. The max potential intensity also remains between 161-171 kts for the next 48 hours. Ian is not done yet unfortunately.
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It’s going to make a run at 5. The interaction as it approached and is still over Cuba couldn’t have gone any better as far as it’s strength and core is concerned.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
After ~2.5 hours, Ian is about or a little more than halfway across Cuba. The center should be fully back over water by 13:00-13:30z.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I wonder if we'll ever know how strong this storm was right at landfall. That is as good an eye presentation on radar as I've ever seen.
Any live weather stations available in W Cuba?
Any live weather stations available in W Cuba?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
dukeblue219 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Recon is about to make an eye pass over Cuba, has this happened before?
I don't think I've ever seen an eye pass over *land* before, much less Cuba.
Yes, they did that a couple of years ago or so, I can't remember which storm it was.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like Ian is starting to go over the Cordillera de Guaniguanico. Highest point is ~2,293. I’m not sure how high a mountainous area has to be to disrupt the low level circulation, hopefully someone can chime in on that part. If Ian is still holding on strong after going over the mountains, I don’t see how this doesn’t AT LEAST touch 150 mph.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
VDM is out, the pressure is unknown but the eye is closed and it is 20 Nautical Miles wide Circular.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Current winds, just west of Tampa
@300mb: 35 knt SSW
@500mb: 5 knt N
CAPE: 2500
@300mb: 35 knt SSW
@500mb: 5 knt N
CAPE: 2500
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- AdamFirst
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
dukeblue219 wrote:I wonder if we'll ever know how strong this storm was right at landfall. That is as good an eye presentation on radar as I've ever seen.
Any live weather stations available in W Cuba?
They've gotten great at post season analysis. My personal belief is that this was category 4 at landfall with a pressure around 940.
Not many live observations - the Cuban Meteorological Service has a Twitter account but they haven't posted in a few hours. They reported a gust of 130 MPH in Pinar Del Rio a few hours ago, in the northern eyewall. Right now the eye is over Pinar Del Rio.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:VDM is out, the pressure is unknown but the eye is closed and it is 20 Nautical Miles wide Circular.
Yes, they couldn't drop a dropsonde in the eye since is inland but the extrap pressure was 947mb, highest flight level winds was 105 knots.
Amazing, the pressure has remained at least steady.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
dukeblue219 wrote:I wonder if we'll ever know how strong this storm was right at landfall. That is as good an eye presentation on radar as I've ever seen.
Any live weather stations available in W Cuba?
I heard a report of a 115 kt wind gust at Pinar Del Rio earlier in the thread. Don’t know the specifics like mounting height but that would definitely support a Cat 3 landfall intensity.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Eyewall is still producing lightning over Cuba.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- skyline385
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
AdamFirst wrote:dukeblue219 wrote:I wonder if we'll ever know how strong this storm was right at landfall. That is as good an eye presentation on radar as I've ever seen.
Any live weather stations available in W Cuba?
They've gotten great at post season analysis. My personal belief is that this was category 4 at landfall with a pressure around 940.
Not many live observations - the Cuban Meteorological Service has a Twitter account but they haven't posted in a few hours. They reported a gust of 130 MPH in Pinar Del Rio a few hours ago, in the northern eyewall. Right now the eye is over Pinar Del Rio.
130mph just doesn’t sound like a C4 imo, most likely a C3
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