ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Models indicating strong tornado threat today from central FL to the glades

[Weatherboy1]

The mantra over the last 24-36 hours has been “south and East, south and East.” GFS, for instance, now showing landfall all the way down in Port Charlotte area. That’s 90-100 miles from downtown Tampa. Here in Northeastern Palm Beach County, my expectations for what kind of bad weather we’ll get are definitely going up. Live very close to Jupiter Inlet, the breakpoint for the new TS Warning area

[kevin]

Wow

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220927/7989a2354990595e116f09085c0915a4.gif


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Talk about a perfect eye. The best eye of the season so far and it's one above land...

[GCANE]

Anybody in a mobile home needs to get the f*** out.

[dukeblue219]

130mph just doesn’t sound like a C4 imo, most likely a C3


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we could get pretty off-topic on this, but how often do we see storms with Max sustained of, say, 145mph and no reported gusts on land above 110? 130mph well-inland surprises me from a 125mph max-sustained storm.

[caneman]

Recon is about to make an eye pass over Cuba, has this happened before?

I don't think I've ever seen an eye pass over *land* before, much less Cuba.

Yes, they did that a couple of years ago or so, I can't remember which storm it was.

Didn't Wilma do that? Or so I recall

[skyline385]

130mph just doesn’t sound like a C4 imo, most likely a C3


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we could get pretty off-topic on this, but how often do we see storms with Max sustained of, say, 145mph and no reported gusts on land above 110? 130mph well-inland surprises me from a 125mph max-sustained storm.

Fair point but the NHC isn’t going to upgrade based on that assumption


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[GCANE]

Big blow up in convection in the feeder band western tip of the Keys to mid Cuba.
This is going to be the first big punch for Fl.

[weeniepatrol]

Only good news is we can see the dry air encroaching into the Gulf.

[toad strangler]

Only good news is we can see the dry air encroaching into the Gulf.

https://imgur.com/1LPxVXr

Makes it look like Ian has no choice but go into the peninsula, but it's not a ridge.

[skyline385]

This image is probably going to be one for the history books

[ThetaE]

That recon pass sure impressed me! And I see a lot of itching for a narrative that Ian isn't going to weaken because of this landfall, but land is land and mountains are mountains and both are not good for TCs.

To set some expectations: both the HWRF (06z) and the HAFS (18z yesterday) have central pressure rising after landfall from around 950mb to the mid-950s before intensification begins anew after 18z today. The best explanation I have for this is that changes to the environment of a storm (that are not too drastic) have a bit of a delay in their impact. Winds weaken because of friction over land (and have less water to evaporate), but it takes time for that to lead to weaker ascent, and that takes time to lead to a rising pressure.

Despite this ~6hr pause, both of these models still take Ian down to the upper 930smb with peak winds in the 120-130kt range just before landfall. This is all to say: if Ian does not begin re-intensifying immediately after it moves over water again, please do not let your guard down!

[fllawyer]

To my untrained eye, Ian looks to be moving N-NNE over the last 90 minutes. Can anyone weigh in?

[GCANE]

Pretty good dry slot between inner feeder band and outer band.
Looks like this may rotate to Miami.
Watch out for tornadoes from this.

[Iceresistance]

Northern part of the eye now over the GoM.

[Iceresistance]

Recon staging for another pass, NW quadrant shows only 80 knots FL wind.

Ian may have weakened somewhat, but the eye is still complete.

[Jelmergraaff]

Recon staging for another pass, NW quadrant shows only 80 knots FL wind.

Ian may have weakened somewhat, but the eye is still complete.

Personally more interested in pressure rather than FL-wind. I also noticed they gained altitude this time.

[dukeblue219]

I don't think I've ever seen an eye pass over *land* before, much less Cuba.

Yes, they did that a couple of years ago or so, I can't remember which storm it was.

Didn't Wilma do that? Or so I recall

A reconnaissance pass through Wilma over the Yucatan? I don't recall it.

Edit - the context of my original post disappeared. Wasn't referring to an eye passing over land, but a HH making an "eye pass" while the eye was over land.

[toad strangler]

Only good news is we can see the dry air encroaching into the Gulf.

https://imgur.com/1LPxVXr

That is a huge slug of dry air and both the GFS and Euro have it getting wrapped up into Ian over Florida. That will choke him off for sure if he decided to sit and spin.

[wxman57]

Ian has definitely weakened while crossing the mountains of western Cuba. It'll have a short time to regain strength today then shear and dry air will be impacting it by the time it nears landfall tomorrow night. I told someone here from Bradenton to prepare to be without power for days or weeks. That appears to be the case. If it can hit south of Tampa Bay then it won't push up to 18 ft of surge into the bay like a hit just west would.