ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

Ño reason to get hung up on calling Ian a 5 or not. The damage will be catastrophic regardless at this point

It matters for the historical record.

[SohCahToa]

They should just call Ian a CAT 5 by now

I haven't seen any data to support that

You can easily infer that the storm has continued strengthening over the last three hours and has likely crossed the threshold.

I’m no scientist, forecaster, or have any education on the weather outside of where my hurricane enthusiasm has led online and on these boards. It seems to me that we see A LOT of estimations made by the NHC in all kinds of situations, so it seems crazy to me that with some of the recon data we had a few hours ago they wouldn’t upgrade based on estimations. I understand wanting things to be confirmed, but it just seems like they are the most strict on that when determining whether to upgrade to Cat 5 only.

[Ntxw]

Looks like Ian may be another intensifying system right up to landfall. Very scary situation, prayers for those who stayed.

[rwfromkansas]

Makes me sick seeing Sanibel get hit like this.

We went there many times as a kid. That is honestly the thing that is the worst to me is seeing them likely near destroyed, at least the north end of islands. This should make Charley look like a cakewalk.

[dukeblue219]

Folks, the Gulf of Mexico has good ADS-B coverage. While you can't get meteorological information, you can often track the AF HH in real-time. No need to panic when they haven't uploaded weather data for 40 minutes. Just check something like FlightRadar24.

[NDG]

Weird storm - Naples is what, less than 50 miles from the eyewall of a Cat 4, and it's barely raining there.
Looking at the live cams from Naples, people are outside walking the beach....

Euro was persistent for days in the SE & eastern quadrants not as wet as usual because of dry air rotating around it. The wettest quadrants will be the northern & NW quadrants of the storm.

[Buck]

Ño reason to get hung up on calling Ian a 5 or not. The damage will be catastrophic regardless at this point

It matters for the historical record.

NHC is on top of it… you don’t have to worry.

[ColdFusion]

Remarkably quiet radar presentation to the east of the eye.

[MississippiWx]

According to TT, the mission is complete. Any upgrade to Cat 5 will have to come from another plane, radar, or after the season. Semantics at this point. This is going to be horrible regardless.

[Ivanhater]

Ño reason to get hung up on calling Ian a 5 or not. The damage will be catastrophic regardless at this point

It matters for the historical record.

Plenty of time for that later. If enough data backs up Ian being upgraded, the NHC will do so.

[ElectricStorm]

Just woke up and checked the NHC page...

135kts. Wow. I actually did a double take to see if that was real. Absolute nightmare

[dukeblue219]

Ian has really slowed to a crawl out there. Awful.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Visible/IR continues to improve.

[Iceresistance]

Sounds like a broken record, but there is STILL an insane amount of Lightning in Ian's eyewall

[tolakram]

[sbcc]

Posting for caneman - this is a pic of the water, or rather the lack of it, in his canal near Indian Rocks...

FYI, the code instruction I posted is not working, need to copy the BBCode box there, then put it in the IMG tags. Sorry!

EDIT - I see you got it figured out, awesome!

[TallyTracker]

I haven't seen any data to support that

You can easily infer that the storm has continued strengthening over the last three hours and has likely crossed the threshold.

I’m no scientist, forecaster, or have any education on the weather outside of where my hurricane enthusiasm has led online and on these boards. It seems to me that we see A LOT of estimations made by the NHC in all kinds of situations, so it seems crazy to me that with some of the recon data we had a few hours ago they wouldn’t upgrade based on estimations. I understand wanting things to be confirmed, but it just seems like they are the most strict on that when determining whether to upgrade to Cat 5 only.

The NHC doesn’t operationally upgrade to Cat 5 often in these situations likely to avoid further panic. As soon as it’s an official Cat 5, the media will go bonkers more than before and people may try to panic leave at a time when it’s not safe to do so. The record can be updated later but the NHC is more in the business of saving lives rather than making sure the record is straight operationally. 155 mph is just as bad as 160 anyway so no need to upgrade unless absolutely necessary and undisputed.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/chrisshawtvnews/status/1575118906863165441


 https://twitter.com/SamAV8R/status/1575119688949972994

[JeninOrlando]

Hi all. Longtime lurker. Went through Irma here in east Orlando, now ready for Ian. I have a sister in evac zone A in Port Charlotte. She was prepared to ride it out anyway. This morning her pond was already up by more than a foot. She packed up and went inland a bit to a friend in NorthPort. Pretty nervous about the next 36 hours here in Orange County.

[rwfromkansas]

Can you imagine the 700ft immediate drop in altitude by the hurricane hunters from turbulence and them going back in for more passes? Those guys are extremely brave.

The ragged look of the eye from earlier is quickly correcting itself. Wow...I don't think he's done strengthening.

I grip the plane seat for dear life even with a minor bump. You could not pay me any amount of money to do a hurricane flight unless I maybe was heavily medicated.

Their job is so critical.