ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Mjm1111]

It’s like watching a birth of a hurricane in real time

[Hammy]

Ian seems to be lacking inflow on the west and south side at the moment and I'm seeing outflow boundaries.

Motion based on two recent microwave passes

[Kazmit]

So based on trends today, it's looking more likely that we will get a very powerful hurricane, but less likely that it will landfall close to peak intensity.

[Nimbus]

So based on trends today, it's looking more likely that we will get a very powerful hurricane, but less likely that it will landfall close to peak intensity.

The shear forecast for the northern gulf diminishes with time so a track like NHC is predicting with landfall fairly soon up in the big bend area would provide the most amount of cool dry shear before landfall.

A track making landfall west of Apalachicola would experience less shear near landfall because the trough would have already moved out. And if the system meanders till October then cooler waters might reduce the intensity some but there might not be any shear at all under a building high for example.

[toad strangler]

So based on trends today, it's looking more likely that we will get a very powerful hurricane, but less likely that it will landfall close to peak intensity.

Per Levi Cowan’s latest update I took:

1. Eastern range - quicker and stronger
2. Northern range - FL panhandle and N Gulf Coast weaker
3. Western range - TBD

wxman57 has been calling 1 & 2 the same for days

[AnnularCane]

It’s like watching a birth of a hurricane in real time

That's pretty much what it is.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/MeteoAtlas/status/1573804936940470272

[cane5]

Spin this all you’d like but this one is a real stumper

[Hurrilurker]

Still looks a mess on IR but you can see definite signs of counterclockwise banding forming.

[Kludge]

I'm excellent at predicting what the NHC will do.

I was giving some thought to recommending that my company subscribe to your services. But now I appreciate that taxpayer services already have us prepared. Thank you!

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1573819317375803392

[sunnyday]

Why is that an unprecedented NHC forecast?
Thank you.

[WiscoWx02]

If Ian’s center is truly stacked as NOAA obs say…holy crap this is going to be a dizzying 48 hrs in terms of rapid intensification. Now the possibility of this missing the trough taxi and stalling then heading further west…total 180 from what I expected 2 days ago or hoped for, was hoping for a CONUS miss to the east but that’s off the table now

[Ivanhater]

Didn't think the NWS would introduce tropical storm conditions for Pensacola already




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[Keldeo1997]

Why is that an unprecedented NHC forecast?
Thank you.

Probably the most Bullsh forecast for a weak tropical Storm ever.

[jlauderdal]

Didn't think the NWS would introduce tropical storm conditions for Pensacola already




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Seems like a very reasonable forecast

[sweetpea]

Didn't think the NWS would introduce tropical storm conditions for Pensacola already


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/d13d92a63b5fa7a8bb0799a1c8d8aa90.jpg

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Tallahasse has too

[Bocadude85]

Didn't think the NWS would introduce tropical storm conditions for Pensacola already


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/d13d92a63b5fa7a8bb0799a1c8d8aa90.jpg

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Seems like a very reasonable forecast

The NWS is also calling for TS conditions in Southeast Florida on Wednesday night, I’m fairly certain this has more to do with TS wind probabilities in any given area instead of the weather service actually expecting these winds to occur. Not sure TS winds would be occurring in Boca Raton at the same time as they are occurring in Pensacola.

[psyclone]

Didn't think the NWS would introduce tropical storm conditions for Pensacola already

I don't think the criteria for "ts conditions possible" is very high. Maybe one of our NWS staff members could provide some clarity. When is says "ts conditions likely" then you're cooking with gas.

[ronjon]

So based on trends today, it's looking more likely that we will get a very powerful hurricane, but less likely that it will landfall close to peak intensity.

Per Levi Cowan’s latest update I took:

1. Eastern range - quicker and stronger
2. Northern range - FL panhandle and N Gulf Coast weaker
3. Western range - TBD

wxman57 has been calling 1 & 2 the same for days

Good recap Toad. I'd add that Levi indicated Ian's location coming off Cuba is a factor. If it comes off near Havana, a western peninsula threat. If in the Yuc channel, probably FL panhandle.