ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

The cloudtops around Ian are also cooling rapidly from -61C at 08 UTC to -74C at 11 UTC (20 minutes ago). ADT is still kinda behind with a raw T# of just 4.2.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Morning! It’s definitely wobble-watching time here in northeastern Palm Beach County. Direct hit is highly unlikely, but any jogging/wobbling east of the forecast track now means worse weather later. I’m curious if the NHC will put TS watches up for Lake O and/or parts of the east coast later today.

Doubt it. Probably a Gale warning for the costal waters. The onshore flow with trough interaction should be interesting for rainfall totals on the east coast. Could use the rain.

[eastcoastFL]

I just woke up, and WOW! I knew that Ian was going to do this!

I just woke up because my dog wanted to go out...

I got about 3 hours of sleep. Woke up had to check the NHC and yep it’s a hurricane. Now I can’t go back to sleep. Store shelves were pretty bare yesterday so I’ll see if getting there early can score me anything this morning. If you’re up and you haven’t got gas yet, now is the time! It’s a school holiday in most places so traffic shouldn’t be too crazy today. Get stocked up now. The news is going to be in full hype mode from here on out so the stores will get bombarded and the gas stations too.

[Iceresistance]

The cloudtops around Ian are also cooling rapidly from -61C at 08 UTC to -74C at 11 UTC (20 minutes ago). ADT is still kinda behind with a raw T# of just 4.2.

The ADT has activated the constraint limit for the Raw T#.

[AdamFirst]

You can watch the evolution of this storm on the Cayman Islands main radar. The eastern eyewall of this rapidly developing hurricane, barring a freak wobble, will just narrowly miss Grand Cayman - a dodged bullet.

Not so lucky, however - It looks to me that the storm is heading directly for the Isle of Youth. That suggests to me a more easterly track on the guidance envelope, which would favor more of a coastal landfall once it gets up toward Florida. Of course, where exactly that would be remains to be seen.

[toad strangler]

We are now to point to watch any little trend in the short term that it could affect track of Ian as it nears the FL Peninsula over the next few days.
Weird how dry the SE quadrant is, looks better on satellite this morning than on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/wpQ4dIS.gif

That might not be the best quality radar.

It is good quality, Ian is very close to the radar site, just 50 miles, their airport is reporting fair weather. That's definitely a dry slot circulating really close to its eye.

https://i.imgur.com/VujvNlh.gif

Has to be dry air then.

[Iceresistance]

NOAA2 just made the 2nd pass, lowest pressure is at 978.9 mb extrapolated.

75 knot FL winds in the eastern eyewall.

[NDG]

That might not be the best quality radar.

It is good quality, Ian is very close to the radar site, just 50 miles, their airport is reporting fair weather. That's definitely a dry slot circulating really close to its eye.

https://i.imgur.com/VujvNlh.gif

Has to be dry air then.

Not unusually to have dry slots nearby initially, but the question is will it mix it out or will the dry slot temporarily disrupt the eyewall.

[kevin]

First pass by the AF300 plane, 978.0 mb extrapolated.

[MBryant]

I just woke up, and WOW! I knew that Ian was going to do this!

I just woke up because my dog wanted to go out...

Lol, I woke up earlier (Midnight, again at 4 AM, and at 5:30 AM) because my mind would not stop going crazy over Ian.

That's my normal night, but not from worry. It's old man disease.

[aspen]

That might not be the best quality radar.

It is good quality, Ian is very close to the radar site, just 50 miles, their airport is reporting fair weather. That's definitely a dry slot circulating really close to its eye.

https://i.imgur.com/VujvNlh.gif

Has to be dry air then.

If it is dry air, then it hasn’t bothered Ian’s IR presentation. There are still new, very deep hot towers popping up around the center that should close off the eyewall and mix out the dry air in fairly short order.

[ChrisH-UK]

This is the latest forecast for maximum surge with Hurricane Ian, Tampa Bay area is in a lot of risk with possible 10ft surge. - https://cera.coastalrisk.live/s/e4cc

[Iceresistance]

2/3 passes and the extrapolated pressure is going up, but I'm thinking they somehow missed the true center twice!

[shansgonefishin]

Good Morning from Grand Cayman - slept well no loss of power (yet!). So far so good, wind has picked up but nothing concerning so far, will see what the day brings!

FYI - I don’t claim to know radars but ours is quite substantial, I believe it’s Doppler, and warrants its own installation and is centered in the middle of Grand Cayman, it’s relatively new (5 years at a guess).

[KN2731]

Almost completely closed now thanks to that tower that went up in the NW eyewall

[MBryant]

Would eye wall closure be affected in any way by morning heating? Just checking my unreliable memory.

[aspen]

Ian looks to be right on track for the 8am intermediate advisory, which means it should miss the Isle of Youth and make landfall in 18-21 hours.

It hasn’t intensified a ton since last and seems to have taken a brief pause this morning. Now that the eyewall seems to be close on radar, more rapid intensification could start soon.

[kevin]

The shrimp seems to have closed off the eye, at least on IR. We could see a more traditional IR view soon when the eye clears.

[StormingB81]

I’m in Brevard county. I’m clearing my patio just in case. Been through this song and dance before. Charley, Irma….with a few models bringing it to the center of the state I’d rather be safe than sorry!

[Hurricane Mike]