ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sailingtime]

Looking at the models I think that Ian has a decent chance of making its second landfall on south Carolina as a hurricane.

Too much interaction with the cold front and the high pressure area both of which are combining to keep the wind speeds up a bit in Central Florida. I think Ian will remain a tropical or sub-tropical strom as it moves northward.

[fasterdisaster]

I think it's a little misleading to go back a week and find the one forecast track that went over the Fort Myers area and then claim the forecast was "phenomenal." I don't assign any blame to anyone at the NHC or any other forecasting agency; this was a uniquely difficult storm to track. And yes, the landfall point never left the cone. But given the large number of policymaking decisions and personal choices that were made based on significantly different forecasts over the last few days, I'm going to call this one a forecasting "miss" that needs to be researched in the future.

[hurricaneCW]

Looking at the models I think that Ian has a decent chance of making its second landfall on south Carolina as a hurricane.

Too much interaction with the cold front and the high pressure area both of which are combining to keep the wind speeds up a bit in Central Florida. I think Ian will remain a tropical or sub-tropical strom as it moves northward.

The trough is moving out and a large high is building in behind it. Ian will also move over gulf stream so a hurricane is a definite possibility into SC

[Sailingtime]

I have read that lightning is generally correlated to a strengthing tc. Obviously ian is not strengthening over land as seen in the radar presentation. But I have noticed a decent bit of lightning out here this evening. I don't recall seeing much lightning in the '04 storms i went through. Is there a reason we'd be seeing more lightning in this set up? There is still no rain as well so that makes it feel a bit more strange.

Ian is interacting with a cold front to the North. It is 62 degrees in Jacksonville this evening. Combine that with the High pressure also to Ian's North and you have cold air trying to push it's way down through the hurricane's warm core. Lightning is part of this process.

[IcyTundra]

I think it's a little misleading to go back a week and find the one forecast track that went over the Fort Myers area and then claim the forecast was "phenomenal." I don't assign any blame to anyone at the NHC or any other forecasting agency; this was a uniquely difficult storm to track. And yes, the landfall point never left the cone. But given the large number of policymaking decisions and personal choices that were made based on significantly different forecasts over the last few days, I'm going to call this one a forecasting "miss" that needs to be researched in the future.

The NHC did well considering the circumstances but I agree that it is misleading to say they nailed the forecast. Yes they did have landfall correct in their first advisory but even the NHC would tell you that was luck.

[Centralflamama]

Checking in from Lakeland. It’s getting pretty lively here— Morris than I like with two small kids in the house. Lightning is popping- was really active about an hour ago. Trying to stay away from the windows but the morbid curiosity is setting in every so often. We have barely any service so I’m not sure where we are in the process.

[Hammy]

I think it's a little misleading to go back a week and find the one forecast track that went over the Fort Myers area and then claim the forecast was "phenomenal." I don't assign any blame to anyone at the NHC or any other forecasting agency; this was a uniquely difficult storm to track. And yes, the landfall point never left the cone. But given the large number of policymaking decisions and personal choices that were made based on significantly different forecasts over the last few days, I'm going to call this one a forecasting "miss" that needs to be researched in the future.

The most readily presentable explanation seems like the GFS threw off the TVCN average by consistently being west of most of the rest of the guidance.

[decgirl66]

Titusville, North Brevard County. I don't think the rain has stopped all day. I feel like it was definitely more squally earlier today. Right now though it's just a little breezy. I am assuming the worst is yet to come, we are ready!

[TheBigO]

Getting pretty nasty here in Sanford, Florida (Seminole county). Lots of harder wind gusts. I can feel the pressure different when I open the doors. LOTS of suction outside. The rain continues to be little more than a drizzle, no downpours yet. Just a constant, near steady drizzle al day.

[bahamaswx]

I think it's a little misleading to go back a week and find the one forecast track that went over the Fort Myers area and then claim the forecast was "phenomenal." I don't assign any blame to anyone at the NHC or any other forecasting agency; this was a uniquely difficult storm to track. And yes, the landfall point never left the cone. But given the large number of policymaking decisions and personal choices that were made based on significantly different forecasts over the last few days, I'm going to call this one a forecasting "miss" that needs to be researched in the future.

This is just geometry. When a hurricane approaches land at a sharp/acute angle, even small forecast errors will result in large landfall errors.

[FLpanhandle91]

At this point Im not really sure where to post random things like this, but seeing the speed this water spout/tornado/water spout/tornado, moved and the power it had, was pretty impressive

https://twitter.com/terri_____/status/1575082364874948608?t=7P5gQQMgWJOkxvq28p9zaA&s=19

This was from the Fort Walton Beach area back in April 2018.

[Landy]

I've checked in with all my family and friends that stayed near ground zero. They are all safe. What a stressful day it has been.

[jasons2k]

Ian is a storm that will be studied for a long time. Since this morning, this cyclone has been slowly transitioning to a sub-tropical cyclone. It started to ingest dry air and you saw the uncharacteristically updrafts and downdrafts with intense lightning along with the Hurricane Hunters and their hail reports (and coffee spills). That is not typical for the incredible number of missions they have completed. Ian has been attached to a frontal trough with outflow and moisture being stripped to the NE. This is not your stand-alone, true tropical cyclone. For me, all the lightning and hail signaled a storm that was giving a very violent 'last gasp' - but would then start to fall part quickly after landfall and the dry air started to wrap around. That seems to be happening now - another 'half hurricane' - but in Florida. I look forward to the lessons that will be learned from Ian.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, down to 80 MPH? This weakened quick than I thought it would..... Might just be a depression by the time it exits the coast tomorrow sometime... Let's hope it's just a naked depression, so that the Carolina's won't have to deal with any problems.....

[Stormcenter]

The NHC did not nail the forecast IMO if they
had Ian going into Tampa or even further north
just days ago.

I think it's a little misleading to go back a week and find the one forecast track that went over the Fort Myers area and then claim the forecast was "phenomenal." I don't assign any blame to anyone at the NHC or any other forecasting agency; this was a uniquely difficult storm to track. And yes, the landfall point never left the cone. But given the large number of policymaking decisions and personal choices that were made based on significantly different forecasts over the last few days, I'm going to call this one a forecasting "miss" that needs to be researched in the future.

The NHC did well considering the circumstances but I agree that it is misleading to say they nailed the forecast. Yes they did have landfall correct in their first advisory but even the NHC would tell you that was luck.

[Steve]

To be fair, Naples/Marco Island weren't even inside the cone in last night's 8PM CDT update, and they got some of the worst surge from this.

Something that will certainly be retrospected-on after the cleanup is finished.

TBF they didn’t have to be in the cone to get the surge effects they did. It was a big storm.

[canebeard]

This strange looking funnel type cloud was shot in Davie, Florida (Broward County) just before dark last night in outer band of Ian. Damage was occurring under this to homes and shopping centers.

[Steve]

I think it's a little misleading to go back a week and find the one forecast track that went over the Fort Myers area and then claim the forecast was "phenomenal." I don't assign any blame to anyone at the NHC or any other forecasting agency; this was a uniquely difficult storm to track. And yes, the landfall point never left the cone. But given the large number of policymaking decisions and personal choices that were made based on significantly different forecasts over the last few days, I'm going to call this one a forecasting "miss" that needs to be researched in the future.

**** can’t always be perfect. We all knew a Cat 3 wasn’t hitting the Big Bend. It was west or south. NHC has to work with what they have. I don’t see a bust at all. They smooth things out in successive forecasts. They should get a B+ at worst. GFS maybe needs to be studied.

[hohnywx]

Wow, down to 80 MPH? This weakened quick than I thought it would..... Might just be a depression by the time it exits the coast tomorrow sometime... Let's hope it's just a naked depression, so that the Carolina's won't have to deal with any problems.....

A) winds are at 90 MPH, not 80.
B) it is forecast to be a strong tropical storm when exiting Florida, not a depression.

Both of these items are readily accessible at nhc.noaa.gov

[blueskies]

The situation in Fort Meyers is tragic. My stepfather's family last called at 4:55 PM from Royal Woods, saying that the walls were cracking, water was in the house and rising up to their necks, and that the entire neighborhood was underwater. Since then the water has risen another few feet and we haven't heard from them, my family is driving down to Florida tomorrow to try to find them. Considering only two of them can swim and one just had back surgery (along with living in a one story house) I fear the worst

Are there any resources that could help them find what roads are passable? I really appreciate it, thank you everyone

You might also try to contact the Red Cross of South Florida. They may offer services to help family members communicate with one another.

Contact the Cajun Navy

This is a number I saw several years ago for the Cajun Navy.

(833) 225 - 8616