ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
NASA has decided to roll back it's SLS rocket from the pad to the VAB at KSC:
https://twitter.com/NASAArtemis/status/1574406114266972163
https://twitter.com/NASAArtemis/status/1574406114266972163
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
New towers going up south of the center. We'll have to see if it can wrap that convection around. If so, it could try to bomb out to a major before it reaches Cuba
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- karenfromheaven
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Sanibel wrote:RI probably gulped-in some remnant dry air from Fiona...
This is a tough call on evacuation here on Sanibel because of the Charley factor...Plus I think this one might have surge unlike Charley, Wilma, and Irma...
The Bermuda High will make us or break us...
Have you studied the CERA website for surge? The bridge causeway off the island is underwater. You'll be cut off given the current NHC 13 track. That's without any Charlie-type deviations.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
underthwx wrote:Sanibel wrote:RI probably gulped-in some remnant dry air from Fiona...
This is a tough call on evacuation here on Sanibel because of the Charley factor...Plus I think this one might have surge unlike Charley, Wilma, and Irma...
The Bermuda High will make us or break us...
Sanibel, you do have a storm surge watch posted for 4-7 feet. I think because this storm is forecasted to be so large and powerful, even if its well off the coast, surge may be significant for SW FL.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
TallyTracker wrote:The convection is still pulsing. Is there mid-level shear impacting the cyclone that has not been analyzed properly? That with dry air intrusions is what it looks like to me. It wouldn’t be the first time unforeseen mid-level shear caused problems with a developing hurricane. Only a little can severely disrupt a hurricane.
It’s pretty common to see hurricanes take a dry air intrusion when they’re in the process of clearing out an eye. Not really seeing anything that isn’t par for the course. Intensification often doesn’t occur at a consistent rate.
Haven’t checked when the next recon is, but what I’m most interested in is if they will find a more symmetrical wind field. It has improved since last night when it was upgraded, when it had 71kt fl winds in the ne quad, but like 40kt winds in the nw quad. Still a ways to go though. You guys might remember Grace last year had that problem, and then when the wind field got sorted out it jumped to cat 3. Likely a similar situation here where intensification will resume once the wind field get in order
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Ian's battle against that pesky bit of dry air is becoming quite apparent on visible imagery, with a dry tongue (red) working its way towards the core. However, convection has recently been rotating into the N and eventually NW quads (blue), with some fresher activity in the SW quad (green). The mixing process could take a few more hours, possibly enough to spare Cuba from a MH landfall.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
ElectricStorm wrote:New towers going up south of the center. We'll have to see if it can wrap that convection around. If so, it could try to bomb out to a major before it reaches Cuba
If that happens, do you think a Category 5 landfall in Florida be a possibility?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
AviationWatcher wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:New towers going up south of the center. We'll have to see if it can wrap that convection around. If so, it could try to bomb out to a major before it reaches Cuba
If that happens, do you think a Category 5 landfall in Florida be a possibility?
No, the dry air and wind shear would increase.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
AviationWatcher wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:New towers going up south of the center. We'll have to see if it can wrap that convection around. If so, it could try to bomb out to a major before it reaches Cuba
If that happens, do you think a Category 5 landfall in Florida be a possibility?
is there a possibility, sure
there is also a possibility Ariana Grande spots me at a concert and marries me...
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
AviationWatcher wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:New towers going up south of the center. We'll have to see if it can wrap that convection around. If so, it could try to bomb out to a major before it reaches Cuba
If that happens, do you think a Category 5 landfall in Florida be a possibility?
Very unlikely, probably won't become a Cat 5 at all anyway. I think the NHC forecast looks pretty good for now
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Should have an eye soon. radar showing a contracting core that is nearly closed off through the mid levels. satellite showing the beginnings of the upper level eye beginning to show itself. That is not a dry air intrusion.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
AviationWatcher wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:New towers going up south of the center. We'll have to see if it can wrap that convection around. If so, it could try to bomb out to a major before it reaches Cuba
If that happens, do you think a Category 5 landfall in Florida be a possibility?
Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. Even if Ian would reach cat 5 status (which I don't think will happen) the current track would weaken it before it makes landfall. A cat 3/4 peak (like NHC is showing at the moment) seems the most realistic forecast for now.
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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Substantial improvement in the SE quad this pass. Multiple hurricane force SFMRs.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
cheezyWXguy wrote:TallyTracker wrote:The convection is still pulsing. Is there mid-level shear impacting the cyclone that has not been analyzed properly? That with dry air intrusions is what it looks like to me. It wouldn’t be the first time unforeseen mid-level shear caused problems with a developing hurricane. Only a little can severely disrupt a hurricane.
It’s pretty common to see hurricanes take a dry air intrusion when they’re in the process of clearing out an eye. Not really seeing anything that isn’t par for the course. Intensification often doesn’t occur at a consistent rate.
Haven’t checked when the next recon is, but what I’m most interested in is if they will find a more symmetrical wind field. It has improved since last night when it was upgraded, when it had 71kt fl winds in the ne quad, but like 40kt winds in the nw quad. Still a ways to go though. You guys might remember Grace last year had that problem, and then when the wind field got sorted out it jumped to cat 3. Likely a similar situation here where intensification will resume once the wind field get in order
From what I can tell, nothing abnormally strange seems to be going on with Ian. Still looks like it's on its way to intensify pretty substantially. I think this dry air stuff is being *slightly* overemphasized
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
SE eyewall stronger than last pass, also down to 981 and not at the center yet
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
74 kt FL winds and 69 kt SFMR. Might be enough for an upgrade to 70 kt for the next advisory even though I would also understand keeping it at 65 kt.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
kevin wrote:74 kt FL winds and 69 kt SFMR. Might be enough for an upgrade to 70 kt for the next advisory even though I would also understand keeping it at 65 kt.
Yeah that SE quad is much improved from the last pass. Likely still strengthening
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
ElectricStorm wrote:SE eyewall stronger than last pass, also down to 981 and not at the center yet
The crazy pressure gradient is the part that bothers me the most.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/recon_AF300-1409A-IAN_zoom.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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