ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Sure looks to be on somewhat of a northerly heading now and likely to cross Cuba further east than forecast unless something changes with its course.

[underthwx]

NHC track is in line with 12Z TVCN, and very close to my track. I do have lots of doubt about the track beyond Tuesday. It bugs me that some models have shifted the track farther offshore Wed/Thu. On the bright side, it would mean less severe impacts to the western Peninsula. It would also mean a weaker hurricane at landfall if it tracks any west of the current forecast, possibly only a TS at landfall. Would likely be hard hit by shear and dry air intrusion. We won't really be confident in where it will eventually go for another day or so.

So, according to the NHC 11 am discussion, Ian will encounter southwesterly shear in roughly 36 hours or so, and put an end to intensification? Is it possible that Ian may be weaker than currently predicted upon approach to land?

[CryHavoc]

At this point I think the storm track is of greater concern than the actual intensity - as far as Florida is concerned. 2+ days and nights of heavy rain has potential for catastrophic damage even if Ian is a cat 1 in the gulf.

[StormPyrate]

So the fellow residents of Pinellas, how does this compare to Irma?
We just moved to Clearwater and bought this house, there was some damage here for Irma, lost the fence and part of the Lanai roof but not much more.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574413677813370881

[kevin]

At this point I think the storm track is of greater concern than the actual intensity - as far as Florida is concerned. 2+ days and nights of heavy rain has potential for catastrophic damage even if Ian is a cat 1 in the gulf.

Indeed. Of course Harvey was a very powerful cat 4 upon landfall, but the main reason why it's so infamous are the days of rain & flooding after landfall when it was 'only' a tropical storm.

[CronkPSU]

NHC track is in line with 12Z TVCN, and very close to my track. I do have lots of doubt about the track beyond Tuesday. It bugs me that some models have shifted the track farther offshore Wed/Thu. On the bright side, it would mean less severe impacts to the western Peninsula. It would also mean a weaker hurricane at landfall if it tracks any west of the current forecast, possibly only a TS at landfall. Would likely be hard hit by shear and dry air intrusion. We won't really be confident in where it will eventually go for another day or so.

So, according to the NHC 11 am discussion, Ian will encounter southwesterly shear in roughly 36 hours or so, and put an end to intensification? Is it possible that Ian may be weaker than currently predicted upon approach to land?

yes there is that possibility, never plan on that tho

[jlauderdal]

At this point I think the storm track is of greater concern than the actual intensity - as far as Florida is concerned. 2+ days and nights of heavy rain has potential for catastrophic damage even if Ian is a cat 1 in the gulf.

Have you ever been in the core of a hurricane? Intensity matters

[TheHurricaneGod]

based on the cayman islands radar, it still looks on course to track west of the isle of youth like the models show, but it is possible that as the core gets itself further together some wobbles east could happen.

[CryHavoc]

At this point I think the storm track is of greater concern than the actual intensity - as far as Florida is concerned. 2+ days and nights of heavy rain has potential for catastrophic damage even if Ian is a cat 1 in the gulf.

Have you ever been in the core of a hurricane? Intensity matters

Of course it does. Ian as a cat 3+ would obviously be worse than Ian as a Cat 1. But in the case of a stalling TC sitting just off the coast, the primary driver of destruction will be flooding. Generally flooding in hurricanes is caused by storm surge, but adding rain to the equation greatly spreads out and amplifies the damage.

... And there's really no answer to it. You can build a home to withstand 130mph winds. It's much harder to prevent damage when you're measuring rainfall in feet.

[Aric Dunn]

High likelihood of a tiny maybe pinhole eye coming soon..

[karenfromheaven]

RI probably gulped-in some remnant dry air from Fiona...


This is a tough call on evacuation here on Sanibel because of the Charley factor...Plus I think this one might have surge unlike Charley, Wilma, and Irma...


The Bermuda High will make us or break us...

Have you studied the CERA website for surge? The bridge causeway off the island is underwater. You'll be cut off given the current NHC 13 track. That's without any Charlie-type deviations.

Karen, do you prefer the CERA map or the NHC inudation map? South Cape below CC Pkwy shows nothing except for a few small areas, yet the NHC map shows yellow (>3') for almost everywhere south of Veterans. I understand this can and will change but I'm trying to understand the discrepancy.

Seems like the CERA map is tuned to each NHC advisory, while the NHC map looks like it goes off their surge range. Also, the NHC definition of highest 10 percent confuses me, but I guess if you absolutely don't want to get your feet wet, that's the plot to use. The CERA map zooms in much farther, and it's easier to see individual streets. Also, the CERA map will show winds!

[Weatherboy1]

It sure seems based on satellite imagery that Ian is going to hit Isla de la Juventud directly, rather than miss it to the west and landfall in western Cuba. That would put it, what? 30 miles or so east of forecast points if so? Just wondering because that could have implications for eventual landfall in Florida

Looks possible but wouldn’t Ian have to go on a straight north heading for that to happen?

It looks to me like it’s on a more NNW heading than NW, which would be enough to clip the island at the very least. We will see.

[kevin]

If you like Tampa, don't go to the models thread. Posting this here to ask if someone knows whether new recon data was used as input for the 12z models, because otherwise I'm very surprised how such a big shift east is possible within 60 hrs?

[DestinHurricane]

If you like Tampa, don't go to the models thread. Posting this here to ask if someone knows whether new recon data was used as input for the 12z models, because otherwise I'm very surprised how such a big shift east is possible within 60 hrs?

Its not that big an east shift. Well within the margin of error.

[karenfromheaven]

So the fellow residents of Pinellas, how does this compare to Irma?
We just moved to Clearwater and bought this house, there was some damage here for Irma, lost the fence and part of the Lanai roof but not much more.

Resident of Lee County here. Irma's eyewall transitioned from Cat 3 to Cat 2 not far from my house. Tore off a big patch of shingles from my roof (2007 CBS house), bent my chain link fence, knocked over a citrus tree, snapped the tops off a couple of slash pines, tore out a couple of pool cage screens (I took a utility knife to half of them before the storm, hoping to save the cage. It worked). Many neighbors' lanais were flattened. A brand new 2-story one across the canal was bent over some 15-20 deg. Power was out for 11 days. No cell phone signal either. Slept in the RV with a generator and A/C until its fuel pump failed after 5 days. Good times! I grew up in Seminole, hoping for the best for everyone.

[eastcoastFL]

One of the tools I like to use when tracking these storms as they approach land is the buoys- if anyone else is interested here’s a link with the buoys closest to Ian’s path

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/1574430285487378432

[Hurricane Mike]

Noon video update on Ian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s21N7LmYW6s

[eastcoastFL]

If you like Tampa, don't go to the models thread. Posting this here to ask if someone knows whether new recon data was used as input for the 12z models, because otherwise I'm very surprised how such a big shift east is possible within 60 hrs?

It will have recon data but probably not the flight currently in the storm. I think that data will go into the next suite of model runs. Recon will be constant from now til landfall so each suite will have recon data included.