ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Looks to be cooperating for the moment with the track with slight wobbles right

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1574440282552430598




It's something that I am trying to remind people of.

[eastcoastFL]

Eyewall convection is building around what should be a pretty tiny eye soon.

https://i.ibb.co/9hVwg99/eye.png

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.

It seemed a little soon for a pinhole eye. Have you looked at the recent recon data ? Are there any signs of imminent RI?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eyewall convection is building around what should be a pretty tiny eye soon.

https://i.ibb.co/9hVwg99/eye.png

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.

It seemed a little soon for a pinhole eye. Have you looked at the recent recon data ? Are there any signs of imminent RI?

Not much has changed with the data since earlier this morning. Pressure has been pretty steady at 981mb and not much change is wind speed either. It is mixing out some dry air that got into the core, but that is just about all mixed out.

[eastcoastFL]

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1574440282552430598

It's something that I am trying to remind people of.

There will always be those people who think their prior experience with storms means they’ve seen it all and they can handle anything. Sadly they tend to be in the most vulnerable areas a lot of the times. I hope everyone along the west coast takes this seriously and does not focus on the current status of the storm. Always prepare for one category higher than forecast for your area has always been a solid prep plan to me.

[Aric Dunn]

Eyewall convection is building around what should be a pretty tiny eye soon.

https://i.ibb.co/9hVwg99/eye.png

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.

It is just the beginning of it. pressure will fall.

Radar confirms a tiny eye. it could of course collapse if an outer eyewall starts to develop as well.. but right now there is one continuous spiral band into the tiny eye.

[skyline385]

977mb extrapolated last pass, big jump


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[wxman57]

Eyewall convection is building around what should be a pretty tiny eye soon.

https://i.ibb.co/9hVwg99/eye.png

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.

It seemed a little soon for a pinhole eye. Have you looked at the recent recon data ? Are there any signs of imminent RI?

No, no sign of RI. Recon reports that the eye is 30nm across. No pinhole eye forming. Stop zooming in so far on the satellite.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.

It seemed a little soon for a pinhole eye. Have you looked at the recent recon data ? Are there any signs of imminent RI?

Not much has changed with the data since earlier this morning. Pressure has been pretty steady at 981mb and not much change is wind speed either. It is mixing out some dry air that got into the core, but that is just about all mixed out.

I think I just saw 977mb unless it was flagged

[FLpanhandle91]

Pressure data missing from the center pass. Will have to wait for dropsonde.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It seemed a little soon for a pinhole eye. Have you looked at the recent recon data ? Are there any signs of imminent RI?

Not much has changed with the data since earlier this morning. Pressure has been pretty steady at 981mb and not much change is wind speed either. It is mixing out some dry air that got into the core, but that is just about all mixed out.

I think I just saw 977mb unless it was flagged

I am waiting for a dropsonde reading (if they were able to get one in), but the extrapolated readings are about 4mb lower than previous extrapolated readings.
There is a 982 with 48kt winds which would imply it is at least 4mb lower.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pressure data missing from the center pass. Will have to wait for dropsonde.

It was 977mb at the wind shift.

[CryHavoc]

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.

It seemed a little soon for a pinhole eye. Have you looked at the recent recon data ? Are there any signs of imminent RI?

No, no sign of RI. Recon reports that the eye is 30nm across. No pinhole eye forming. Stop zooming in so far on the satellite.

Not sure I agree with him, mind you, but the Met on CNN did just state that Ian is RIing at 12:30 eastern time.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.

It seemed a little soon for a pinhole eye. Have you looked at the recent recon data ? Are there any signs of imminent RI?

No, no sign of RI. Recon reports that the eye is 30nm across. No pinhole eye forming. Stop zooming in so far on the satellite.

No sign of RI right now, but I bet we will have RI by tonight especially when you look at the NHC forecasted numbers

[DestinHurricane]

recon seeming to have trouble not missing the eye...

[cheezyWXguy]

It seemed a little soon for a pinhole eye. Have you looked at the recent recon data ? Are there any signs of imminent RI?

No, no sign of RI. Recon reports that the eye is 30nm across. No pinhole eye forming. Stop zooming in so far on the satellite.

Not sure I agree with him, mind you, but the Met on CNN did just state that Ian is RIing at 12:30 eastern time.

They aren’t scrutinizing the storm the way we are. Ian has been rapidly intensifying for the prior 18 hours, and is likely to resume RI again soon, but is currently intensifying more slowly. For public consideration, it makes more sense to keep the message consistent and say what they did

[psyclone]

Ian is really increasing in size as it assembles a massive galaxy of spiral bands. Even Jamaica is getting some outer bands again.

[DestinHurricane]

There is clearly a 5nm wide ish eye forming https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

[FLpanhandle91]

How does the topography of CA impact the inflow of storms in close proximity to the coast? Is it possible Ian was impacted by this earlier in its life and is now benefiting from more separation from the coastline?

[aspen]

Eyewall convection is building around what should be a pretty tiny eye soon.

https://i.ibb.co/9hVwg99/eye.png

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.

It is just the beginning of it. pressure will fall.

Radar confirms a tiny eye. it could of course collapse if an outer eyewall starts to develop as well.. but right now there is one continuous spiral band into the tiny eye.

https://i.ibb.co/48Rg7Gz/eye2.png

Definitely a double eyewall. You can even see the double wind maxima on the pass through the NW quadrant. This won’t be able to intensify much until that inner eyewall is gone.