Ronel2020 wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:bcargile wrote:I’ve been doing a lot of reading on this, and hope some of the regulars will reengage for discussion.
I don’t think Ian is a Hurricane or Tropical Storm at this point. There is a low pressure system that is bringing in rain wind and interacting with Ian. But the actual storm, I believe has lost its core and Tropical characteristics. Notice how every website and TV channel showed the radar view for 3 days prior to and through its journey across Florida. No one is showing it now, because it doesn’t have the Hurricane pattern even more. There is no moisture on the lower half. Still bad conditions and dangerous elements to deal with, but not a Hurricane or Tropical Storm. Not seeing anything more than 20-30 knots at the SC and NC beach spots. 36 k at Charleston Harbor.
I think Ian has decided he’s mad at you for making such a comment, given the recent formation of an eyewall.
I’m guessing it still counts as subtropical at this point, definitely not fully tropical. Maybe gcane can shed some light on how warm the core is?
Edit: gif didn’t work when I posted, fixed it
The NHC mentioned this in their discussion at 5 AM - “Ian continues to display hybrid tropical/extratropical characteristics, and the satellite appearance is increasingly taking on the pattern of an occluded low.” They also said that it should merge with the shortwave trough over the next day. I find their discussions very helpful and usually read that instead of the general bulletins. Heck, they mentioned many times before landfall in Florida that track was highly uncertain.
They did in their discussions, but the messaging was quite lackluster... the watches should have been up because of the mere possibility of a track drift instead of trying to pinpoint a precise small stretch of coastline. The NHC was constantly playing catch up, issuing only inland watches at 5am Tuesday for Dade and Broward for some reason omitting the coastal section until 11am? This resulted in children going to school in what was arguably the most dangerous day in hindsight for SEFL leading up to Ian. This has been a very difficult storm to forecast, but there really seemed a disconnect in their messaging and actual warning products. In my amateur opinion, the NHC should be more liberal in recommending watches. Better to be safe than sorry. Watches are not a "boy crying wolf" situation, it is only the "possibility" of conditions as such should be used to cover themselves in highly uncertain tracks.
At this rate, it doesn't matter if Ian is subtropical or hurricane or cold core or whatever. We shouldn't get hung up on the science specifics when public safety is the most pressing matter during a landfall situation. You don't want a repeat of the Sandy scenario, dropping warnings because the nature of the storm had evolved meteorologically... the general public doesn't know and often just doesn't care about those differences. We can always go back and reanalyze the specifics of the science in the TCR.
