ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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LandoWill
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2861 Postby LandoWill » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:19 am

Knight85 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
TheDreamTraveler wrote:
It's still mind blowing to me that the biggest surge ever recorded in the Tampa Bay was 4 feet during the Storm of the Century in 1993. And yet Ian's forecast surge is going to be 6-10 feet at least. This just shows you how rare powerful major hurricane strikes like this are on this part of the west coast of Florida


If the GFS is right they could see nearly 4 feet of rain.


The ground in the Tampa Bay area is waterlogged as it is. Driving along Bayshore in Safety Harbor, the drainage ditches are nearly topped already.

I live in land o lakes, Our lake is already at the top of my dock from rain, luckily it hasn't rained the last 7 days that much and it's dropped some, but some people on the opposite side of our lake, have had it almost up to their doors. Where I live, the lake had encroached over the rocks, and I had a small area of water in my yard where the water peaked over and started to enter the backyard. If we get 40 inches of rain here In land o lakes... My yard might flood. I have a pool right outside my doors as well. Do have flood insurance here, it was required.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2862 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:29 am



Isn't that Typhoon Noru?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2863 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:51 am

Just shy of category 3 strength at the 02 AM advisory. Winds up to 110 mph and pressure down to 958 mb.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2864 Postby FireRat » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:52 am

SconnieCane wrote:


Isn't that Typhoon Noru?


It sure is Noru, wow talk about twin calamities in the making halfway across the world from each other at the same time. :double:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2865 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:07 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2866 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:24 am

2:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 27
Location: 21.7°N 83.6°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph


Since 5pm: 1.4 degrees N; .4W
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Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2867 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:25 am

I'm assuming that the track of Ian didn't shift east otherwise someone would have posted it already
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2868 Postby psyclone » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:27 am

Blown Away wrote:
2:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 27
Location: 21.7°N 83.6°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph


Since 5pm: 1.4 degrees N; .4W

It looks barely west of due north now...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2869 Postby psyclone » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:28 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm assuming that the track of Ian didn't shift east otherwise someone would have posted it already


it shifted east at 11 and i wouldn't be shocked to see more eastward adjustments
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2870 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:32 am

psyclone wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm assuming that the track of Ian didn't shift east otherwise someone would have posted it already


it shifted east at 11 and i wouldn't be shocked to see more eastward adjustments


can you link there I can find the tracking map? I don't know where to find it. thanks
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2871 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:35 am

118
WTNT64 KNHC 270631
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
230 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN CUBA SOON...

Earlier aircraft and more recent satellite data indicate that Ian
has continued to strengthen. The maximum winds are now estimated to
be 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 230 AM EDT...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 83.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2872 Postby CryHavoc » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:35 am

Cat 3. Oh man.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2873 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:41 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
psyclone wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm assuming that the track of Ian didn't shift east otherwise someone would have posted it already


it shifted east at 11 and i wouldn't be shocked to see more eastward adjustments


can you link there I can find the tracking map? I don't know where to find it. thanks


actually, nevermind I found it through google
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2874 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:43 am

Not surprised at all with the upgrade. Ian is bombing out to landfall. After all that speculation on whether Ian will underperform, he ends up performing to expectations so far.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2875 Postby Owasso » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:01 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2876 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:09 am

Would not be suprised to see the center of Ian jump around a little as crosses western Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2877 Postby HDGator » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:15 am


The organization of Ian has improved tremendously this afternoon and evening.
I don't think that Cuba will be much of a speed bump where he's crossing; but we can always hope.
This is shaping up as bad juju from Fort Myers to Tampa.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2878 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:26 am

Cold cloudtops surronding that eye. Willing to bet Ian is at 105 kts now.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2879 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:39 am

If the eye can warm/round out better it'll be close to a 7.0. Right now it'll fluctuate between a T6.0 and T6.5 depending on the frame.

There's a good chance this becomes a Cat.4 before its Cuba landfall.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2880 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:47 am

Image
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