ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Windex view
https://i.imgur.com/8neT3Um.gif

Looks like something on Neptune

[ScottNAtlanta]

Very important step to enter the right information into the models every 6 hrs instead of every 12 hrs.

https://twitter.com/NWSSpokane/status/1573696830818263048

That is just wild that Spokane WA is launching balloons every 6 hours for hurricane forecasts

[Aric Dunn]

Recon found the new developing LLC> right about where it should be and more or less stacked..

it will of course still wobble around quite a bit. likely to the wsw for a time while it consolidates.

[Aric Dunn]

Very important step to enter the right information into the models every 6 hrs instead of every 12 hrs.

https://twitter.com/NWSSpokane/status/1573696830818263048

That is just wild that Spokane WA is launching balloons every 6 hours for hurricane forecasts

We definitely need more upstream data.. clearly the models were overdoing the trough and keeping it around way to long. it has been a pretty progressive pattern until the last few days of model runs.

[Blown Away]

Very important step to enter the right information into the models every 6 hrs instead of every 12 hrs.

https://twitter.com/NWSSpokane/status/1573696830818263048

Stuff like this is the awesome side of social media!

[tropicwatch]

It sure will be nice when Ian goes by a weather buoy that actually works

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder when the Weather Channel will begin their 24/7 coverage? I'm thinking by tomorrow night or Monday.... I haven't checked the weather channel in quite some time.....

[SouthernBreeze]

Very important step to enter the right information into the models every 6 hrs instead of every 12 hrs.

https://twitter.com/NWSSpokane/status/1573696830818263048

That is just wild that Spokane WA is launching balloons every 6 hours for hurricane forecasts

We need to know what's coming that could affect this for sure

[Hammy]

Recon found the new developing LLC> right about where it should be and more or less stacked..

it will of course still wobble around quite a bit. likely to the wsw for a time while it consolidates.

Looks like a mesovort. Structure reminds me of Isaac in 2012 and Elsa last year were the massive convective bursting seemed to fracture the center rather than consolidating it

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1573765954177474560

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573763428803543041

[AJC3]

How it started...

'The center hasn't even formed yet' talk is quickly on its way to becoming null and void from here on out. In fact, this morning's scatterometer data (13Z-14Z) and satellite derived winds showed a pretty well-defined surface-850MB vorticity center that should have gone into the initialization of the 18Z model guidance, and I suspect it will be at least as well-defined in the upcoming 00Z runs. How well the model guidance initializes it is another matter, however we're at the point now where we have a decent LL center fix to work with.

How it's going...

[floridasun]

How it started...

'The center hasn't even formed yet' talk is quickly on its way to becoming null and void from here on out. In fact, this morning's scatterometer data (13Z-14Z) and satellite derived winds showed a pretty well-defined surface-850MB vorticity center that should have gone into the initialization of the 18Z model guidance, and I suspect it will be at least as well-defined in the upcoming 00Z runs. How well the model guidance initializes it is another matter, however we're at the point now where we have a decent LL center fix to work with.

How it's going...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdchKbjWYAcsH5j?format=png&name=900x900

look like other center nw of southern low?

[Blown Away]

How it started...

'The center hasn't even formed yet' talk is quickly on its way to becoming null and void from here on out. In fact, this morning's scatterometer data (13Z-14Z) and satellite derived winds showed a pretty well-defined surface-850MB vorticity center that should have gone into the initialization of the 18Z model guidance, and I suspect it will be at least as well-defined in the upcoming 00Z runs. How well the model guidance initializes it is another matter, however we're at the point now where we have a decent LL center fix to work with.

How it's going...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdchKbjWYAcsH5j?format=png&name=900x900

What about @15/77 the convection has been bubbling for hours around there?

[Sanibel]

The Caribbean is doing its usual and keeping the storm from consolidating...By tomorrow it should start showing a clear center as it gets to the W Caribbean...When that happens the models will get a better grip and the steering patterns should have become a little more predictable...

I put off a lot of heavy lifting today but will have more work to do tomorrow if we get a sudden surprise (Euro)...

[eastcoastFL]

Starting to get some decent inflow and better overall presentation

[AJC3]

How it started...

'The center hasn't even formed yet' talk is quickly on its way to becoming null and void from here on out. In fact, this morning's scatterometer data (13Z-14Z) and satellite derived winds showed a pretty well-defined surface-850MB vorticity center that should have gone into the initialization of the 18Z model guidance, and I suspect it will be at least as well-defined in the upcoming 00Z runs. How well the model guidance initializes it is another matter, however we're at the point now where we have a decent LL center fix to work with.

How it's going...

What about @15/77 the convection has been bubbling for hours around there?

Yep. Peristent shear really caused problems for what had been a pretty well-defined vort center coming off the N coast of SOAM. Obivously, it wasn't (and isn't) done consolidating.

[tropicwatch]

Starting to get some decent inflow and better overall presentation


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/GEOCOLOR/20222671410-20222671940-GOES16-ABI-AL092022-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Looks like it is consolidating nicely just south of 15N.

[eastcoastFL]

Starting to get some decent inflow and better overall presentation


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/GEOCOLOR/20222671410-20222671940-GOES16-ABI-AL092022-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Looks like it is consolidating nicely just south of 15N.

Sure does. Can’t tell if it’s wnw heading or just a tad north of due west

[Sanibel]

The feathery outflow in the south quadrant is not what you want to see in a system about to enter the gunpowder zone...


The hazy airmass up here in SW Florida looks like hurricane plasma waiting to be tapped...