#1104 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:03 pm
The track beyond day 3 is extremely uncertain based on 5 pm disco:
The aircraft data suggest the center could be re-forming slightly
west of previous estimates, so the initial motion is an uncertain
265/14 kt. Ian is expected to move westward through early Sunday
before turning northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a
ridge to the north. A north-northwestward to northward motion is
forecast on Monday and Tuesday as the center of Ian passes near or
over the western tip of Cuba and emerges over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. Overall, the westward trend in the track models
continues, with the latest GFS on the far left side of the guidance
envelope and the ECMWF on the right edge. The track forecast is
still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions
about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even
among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the
north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida.
Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a
NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering
flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be
over the eastern U.S. early next week. The latest NHC track forecast
is once again adjusted westward, and further adjustments may be
needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.
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