ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Could be some mid-shear, who knows.

[blp]

Moving outside the track.

[Jelmergraaff]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

Based on satellite imagery I wouldn't say it's weakening, but maybe they have additional information supporting lower sustained winds.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

Not really, because it’s not weakening right now. 45kt at 12z was very likely an overestimation, I can barely recall any recon data overnight that justified keeping it as a ts. Suspect they would find more evidence for a ts now than they did back then

[verruckt]

Definitely more of a NW to NNW movement now.

[Aric Dunn]

Moving outside the track.

https://i.ibb.co/Hq32VFr/720db82547fa086d09eee9f8a28bbdfd85c14492302e472f410c57c221bc98d3.gif

with the current loose convection, the llc is going to bounce, wobble, and get pulled all over the place with even the slightest bursts of convection. which is what is happening now.. some deeper convection building to the north is pulling it temporarilly.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

Not really, because it’s not weakening right now. 45kt at 12z was very likely an overestimation, I can barely recall any recon data overnight that justified keeping it as a ts. Suspect they would find more evidence for a ts now than they did back then

That is right. So far, any recon mission has found winds over 45-50 kt.

[Teban54]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

IMO the 45 kts was too high based on recon. Probably just correcting themselves.

Also, while Ian hasn't intensified much, its structure is way better than yesterday. IMO it's more ready for intensification than ever before.

[SapphireSea]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

Not necessarily weird or odd. The storm has had issues with multiple centers / elongation which can create obstacles for strengthening. Even powerful convection, if far enough from the active center will cause weakening. Usually this happens because a reformation is underway. It's also even possible it happens again, and again, although I think the vigorous spin in the convection near the best track will probably stick and should see progressive strengthening from here on out.

[AJC3]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

Not to me. This is simply an artifact of the structural reorganization. The satellitte presentation continues to improve, and recon shows a more coherent single center forming, It's been well-established how favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions are ahead of Ian. I have no doubt that the RI forecast to occur over the NW Caribbean will soon be underway.

[verruckt]

Although it may not be an actual eye, somehow Ian looks rather impressive on satellite the last frames. I think Ian is (almost) ready to take off.

https://imgur.com/grmb6OE

I am still puzzled as to what is holding it back currently. Supposedly great conditions.

Someone mentioned that Convective Inhibition is causing issues with Ian, but he's improving now.

Definitely will improve. Ian is about to hit an area of really high heat content in the next 12 hours. I bet it really kicks off tonight.

[Jelmergraaff]

Definitely more of a NW to NNW movement now.

Yeah, I would say NW too.

[wxman57]

TVCN shifted well to the east and is now precisely on top of my track. Not good news for Tampa. NHC will follow with an east shift in a couple hours.

[SFLcane]

Moving outside the track.

https://i.ibb.co/Hq32VFr/720db82547fa086d09eee9f8a28bbdfd85c14492302e472f410c57c221bc98d3.gif

Indeed! Link?

[aspen]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

It probably hasn’t weakened. I don’t think there were any direct observations that supported 45 kt. But yeah a storm remaining this anemic and wasting all this time in an ideal environment is 2022 at its finest.

[jlauderdal]

Moving outside the track.

Whats a few miles when trajectory makes a huge difference...weaker storm moving to the right, odd

[jlauderdal]

TVCN shifted well to the east and is now precisely on top of my track. Not good news for Tampa. NHC will follow with an east shift in a couple hours.

When is your new track released and what are you going to do? Seems trend is your friend so nudge right, tvcn has been playing catch up due to the gfs.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/massachusettswx/status/1574113023618437120

[bonitabeachbum]

Can I ask a stupid question? Been looking at the storm surge risk maps here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/
It seems like in FL especially south of Ft Myers that a major could easily inundate 5-10 miles inland if not more.
My question is how widespread could these scenarios play out? I assume this map is the absolute worst case for each point on the map if a hurricane was perfectly placed to flood it. That's why it shows flooding in TX, LA, FL all at the same time - it's not responding to a specific storm. Is there a way to visualize what kind of hurricane would create the surge needed to flood a specific place? Or theoretical flooding for a theoretical storm? This map makes it hard to estimate because it just shows hundreds if not thousands of continuous square miles flooded up and down the coast without any way to see what's realistic.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1574116524943704069