ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dspguy]

Is it making that turn yet? Seems like the NW turn hasn't happened yet (at least NHC keeps saying it is moving north).

[Tireman4]

Just an FYI. First, welcome to all the newbies. We appreciate you. Welcome to our little part of the weather universe. Second, if you could put where you live in your profile, that can help the good folks on here answer your questions better ( as it were).

[tropicwatch]

Is it making that turn yet? Seems like the NW turn hasn't happened yet (at least NHC keeps saying it is moving north).

No drastic turn is expected before landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/091540_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[GCANE]

The PV streamer that is over Ian has dissipated quite a bit since last night.
Effect can be clearly seen as convection is covering the surface vort.
Getting better stacked.
CAPE is also on the rise since dawn with 2500 at the core.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[bcargile]

I’ve been doing a lot of reading on this, and hope some of the regulars will reengage for discussion.

I don’t think Ian is a Hurricane or Tropical Storm at this point. There is a low pressure system that is bringing in rain wind and interacting with Ian. But the actual storm, I believe has lost its core and Tropical characteristics. Notice how every website and TV channel showed the radar view for 3 days prior to and through its journey across Florida. No one is showing it now, because it doesn’t have the Hurricane pattern even more. There is no moisture on the lower half. Still bad conditions and dangerous elements to deal with, but not a Hurricane or Tropical Storm. Not seeing anything more than 20-30 knots at the SC and NC beach spots. 36 k at Charleston Harbor.

[SecondBreakfast]

Nasty day in store for the low country/sea islands.

[cheezyWXguy]

The PV streamer that is over Ian has dissipated quite a bit since last night.
Effect can be clearly seen as convection is covering the surface vort.
Getting better stacked.
CAPE is also on the rise since dawn with 2500 at the core.

Makes sense, I’m seeing convection trying to wrap around to the east side of the center now. Strongest attempt yet to build an eyewall.

[Comradez]

What a bizarre-looking storm right now. Amazing to see the high-altitude clouds race off to the north while the low-level cloud layer and dry air slides in the complete opposite direction. I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane start such an extra-tropical transition at such a low latitude in September. Must be a really powerful cold front. I know the morning here in Missouri sure is crisp. Low of 42F last night. Quite chilly for this time of year.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[blueskies]

Oh, Sanibel.

I am so sorry for your loss. Your S2k family is here if you need anything.

Sanibel,

Please let us know if there is anything we can do for you - Make calls, Look up information, etc. Also if there are items you need we could try to find a way to have them transported to you.

[syfr]

I’ve been doing a lot of reading on this, and hope some of the regulars will reengage for discussion.

I don’t think Ian is a Hurricane or Tropical Storm at this point.

I've just looked at several live reporting stations along the SC/NC coast and what you mention confirms that. Certainly some 30-40 MPH winds but I can't find higher.

I'm not complaining!

[ColdMiser123]

Drop supports 978 mb, the recent convection has led to some pressure falls.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’ve been doing a lot of reading on this, and hope some of the regulars will reengage for discussion.

I don’t think Ian is a Hurricane or Tropical Storm at this point. There is a low pressure system that is bringing in rain wind and interacting with Ian. But the actual storm, I believe has lost its core and Tropical characteristics. Notice how every website and TV channel showed the radar view for 3 days prior to and through its journey across Florida. No one is showing it now, because it doesn’t have the Hurricane pattern even more. There is no moisture on the lower half. Still bad conditions and dangerous elements to deal with, but not a Hurricane or Tropical Storm. Not seeing anything more than 20-30 knots at the SC and NC beach spots. 36 k at Charleston Harbor.

I think Ian has decided he’s mad at you for making such a comment, given the recent formation of an eyewall.



I’m guessing it still counts as subtropical at this point, definitely not fully tropical. Maybe gcane can shed some light on how warm the core is?

Edit: gif didn’t work when I posted, fixed it

[bcargile]

I’ve been doing a lot of reading on this, and hope some of the regulars will reengage for discussion.

I don’t think Ian is a Hurricane or Tropical Storm at this point. There is a low pressure system that is bringing in rain wind and interacting with Ian. But the actual storm, I believe has lost its core and Tropical characteristics. Notice how every website and TV channel showed the radar view for 3 days prior to and through its journey across Florida. No one is showing it now, because it doesn’t have the Hurricane pattern even more. There is no moisture on the lower half. Still bad conditions and dangerous elements to deal with, but not a Hurricane or Tropical Storm. Not seeing anything more than 20-30 knots at the SC and NC beach spots. 36 k at Charleston Harbor.

I think Ian has decided he’s mad at you for making such a comment, given the recent formation of an eyewall.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/j3Cw2Vj/CEA5-DFB0-34-DB-4-A9-D-8937-766522-E86-D02.jpg [/url]

I’m guessing it still counts as subtropical at this point, definitely not fully tropical. Maybe gcane can shed some light on how warm the core is?

Damn! Sorry…

[mpic]

I have been combing through the news coverage today trying to find out about damage in the area where my parents are supposed to be going in 2 weeks, and I ran across a story that seems relevant to a conversation thread here. A woman and her husband with a 21 month old baby left Tampa to go to her in-laws house to the south in Punta Gorda to avoid the storm. They got there, realized the track had changed,and there was no where they could get gas to go back, and there was a lot of misinformation flying around about shelters being full that was not true, and they ended up having to ride it out in their house. They watched both neighbors roofs fly off, but they were all ok. When it comes to information like this in an emergency, GOVERNMENT sources are the ONLY sources you should trust. People can say what they want about it, but these people's only job is service to their community and keeping people safe. Facebook doesn't care, Twitter doesn't care, and Reddit doesn't care. Only government (local or otherwise) sources should be used to make those decisions.

Granted it was 2005, but we listened to local government sources and left when we were told to in Rita. We ended up in the path in Woodville and exhausted a tank of gas doing it and had to have a friend in Houston bring us enough to get home. 2008 Ike was the same...local sources said it was a Mexico storm 3 days before it hit my house north of Galveston. I didn't listen to them then and got out. Storm2k saved me in Ike.

[dpep4]

Some post-storm sat photos are out.

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ian/index.html#15/26.5442/-81.9253

I've only looked at some of Cape Coral, but the good news is it looks like most (potentially all?) of the homes are still standing.

[Ronel2020]

I’ve been doing a lot of reading on this, and hope some of the regulars will reengage for discussion.

I don’t think Ian is a Hurricane or Tropical Storm at this point. There is a low pressure system that is bringing in rain wind and interacting with Ian. But the actual storm, I believe has lost its core and Tropical characteristics. Notice how every website and TV channel showed the radar view for 3 days prior to and through its journey across Florida. No one is showing it now, because it doesn’t have the Hurricane pattern even more. There is no moisture on the lower half. Still bad conditions and dangerous elements to deal with, but not a Hurricane or Tropical Storm. Not seeing anything more than 20-30 knots at the SC and NC beach spots. 36 k at Charleston Harbor.

I think Ian has decided he’s mad at you for making such a comment, given the recent formation of an eyewall.


I’m guessing it still counts as subtropical at this point, definitely not fully tropical. Maybe gcane can shed some light on how warm the core is?

Edit: gif didn’t work when I posted, fixed it

The NHC mentioned this in their discussion at 5 AM - “Ian continues to display hybrid tropical/extratropical characteristics, and the satellite appearance is increasingly taking on the pattern of an occluded low.” They also said that it should merge with the shortwave trough over the next day. I find their discussions very helpful and usually read that instead of the general bulletins. Heck, they mentioned many times before landfall in Florida that track was highly uncertain.

[wxman57]

Recon still hasn't found any solid evidence that Ian has any hurricane force winds. Charleston just got hit by that heavier squall NW of the center and reported sustained 30 kts and gusts 43 kts. No TS winds being reported at the standard coastal stations. Some weather flow towers reporting strong wind at 50 ft above the ground.

[SecondBreakfast]

High tide coming

https://twitter.com/edpiotrowski/status ... 85024?s=21