ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tomatkins]

Some post-storm sat photos are out.

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ian/index.html#15/26.5442/-81.9253

I've only looked at some of Cape Coral, but the good news is it looks like most (potentially all?) of the homes are still standing.

The building codes worked in as much as the houses are still there. But they will all have to be gutted due to water damage.

[ColdMiser123]

Peak FL wind of 80 kt, peak SFMR of 72 kt so far, but they are disconnected from each other. Strongest part of the storm should be the western side, which hasn't been fully sampled yet.

[Sanibel]

Good cell reception at Twins Spring Training ballpark...

A relative saw a flyover of my house...Roof intact and apparently still standing...Hope it didn't wash through in living area above stilts...

Funeral home was prompt and took my mother's body away yesterday at 1pm...4 foor surge had lapped at building first floor where she died...Person also died of heart attack there in car...

Got word from Sun Dial Resort 20 foot surge washed through second storie there...

[GCANE]

Judging by radar, eye may be closed off now

[ScottNAtlanta]

My sister is in Mount Pleasant and she says lots of wind and rain and no power. Their power lines are buried so it is very unusual for them to lose power. It would have to be a big substation

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like their wind direction is off shore...hopefully it remains that way due to surge flooding

[LarryWx]

Buoy 41004, which is at 32.5N, 79.1W, is very near the center. It last reported at 10:40 AM a SLP of 28.96" or 981 mb. Winds had become much lighter, with the center barely south then, at 14 knots from the ESE. Two hours earlier they were at 43 knots, gusting to 58 knots. All of the constantly updated data is here along with a cool recent photo of the high seas:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... ><br

[Tireman4]

Good cell reception at Twins Spring Training ballpark...

A relative saw a flyover of my house...Roof intact and apparently still standing...Hope it didn't wash through in living area above stilts...

Funeral home was prompt and took my mother's body away yesterday at 1pm...4 foor surge had lapped at building first floor where she died...Person also died of heart attack there in car...

Got word from Sun Dial Resort 20 foot surge washed through second storie there...

Sanibel, know we are here for you! We are so sorry for this.

[ColdMiser123]

Weatherflow site 4 miles ESE of Charleston reported a gust to 83 mph, hurricane force gusts now moving onshore.

[weeniepatrol]

Satellite images show that Ian has re-developed deep convection
near the center, with frontal features away from the core of the
cyclone. Additionally, a primitive eyewall has formed around about
half of the circulation.

[Sanibel]

My nephew meant well but he got the house number wrong...Houses in my neighborhood standing but obviously destroyed in image I just saw...

[wxman57]

Peak FL wind of 80 kt, peak SFMR of 72 kt so far, but they are disconnected from each other. Strongest part of the storm should be the western side, which hasn't been fully sampled yet.

That 72 kt SFMR was over twice the FL speed, which makes it quite suspect. Winds appear to be in the 60-65 kt range in a small area. Highest current ob at KGGE (Georgetown Airport, south of Myrtle Beach) at 33 kts gusting 48 kts. Charleston has 30 kts gusting up to 47 kts in the past hour. NHC will never indicate a storm is weakening prior to landfall because they need to keep people out of harm's way. That's why they're not calling it an extratropical storm now - people won't understand and won't heed warnings. They have it ET by this evening once inland.

[wxman57]

Weatherflow site 4 miles ESE of Charleston reported a gust to 83 mph, hurricane force gusts now moving onshore.

That tower height is 50 ft, I believe. It's been the highest reporting wind all morning

[OuterBanker]

Although nws called for .75 to 1 inch this am we are already at almost 2. Winds steady from yesterday 30 to 35 kts. Much more like a nor'easter than a tropical system. Ian just needs to die. At least we will never have to deal with the name again .?

[jimpsummers]

Pawleys Island webcam, looking south from Pawleys Pier Village rooftop just south of the Pier. Cam is going off and on line - but this appears to be the possible point of 2nd landfall:

https://www.pawleysislandrealty.com/about-pir/webcam

[ColdMiser123]

Peak FL wind of 80 kt, peak SFMR of 72 kt so far, but they are disconnected from each other. Strongest part of the storm should be the western side, which hasn't been fully sampled yet.

That 72 kt SFMR was over twice the FL speed, which makes it quite suspect. Winds appear to be in the 60-65 kt range in a small area. Highest current ob at KGGE (Georgetown Airport, south of Myrtle Beach) at 33 kts gusting 48 kts. Charleston has 30 kts gusting up to 47 kts in the past hour. NHC will never indicate a storm is weakening prior to landfall because they need to keep people out of harm's way. That's why they're not calling it an extratropical storm now - people won't understand and won't heed warnings. They have it ET by this evening once inland.

There isn't any evidence to indicate this is weakening, though. This is the most expansive the hurricane force wind field has been at flight level, and this is the lowest pressure that the storm has attained since crossing over into the Atlantic.

Additionally, the odds that a single weather station will capture the location of the max winds is extraordinarily low, which is why recon data and radar data are so instrumental for assessing intensity. NHC also factored in the averaged radar bin velocities into their intensity estimate.

This is also not fully extratropical yet, I know of no extratropical cyclone that has a formative eyewall with -70 degree Celsius convection near the center of circulation.

[wxman57]

Buoy 41004, which is at 32.5N, 79.1W, is very near the center. It last reported at 10:40 AM a SLP of 28.96" or 981 mb. Winds had become much lighter, with the center barely south then, at 14 knots from the ESE. Two hours earlier they were at 43 knots, gusting to 58 knots. All of the constantly updated data is here along with a cool recent photo of the high seas:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... ><br

Winds dropped a lot suddenly as the center passed (10 kts). Peak sustained 47 kts with a peak gust of 64 kts. Should be representative of what coastal locations will experience soon. Note that air temps on the SC coast are in the low 60s. Ian appears to be attached to a cold front now.

[StormSkeptic]

Buoy 41004, which is at 32.5N, 79.1W, is very near the center. It last reported at 10:40 AM a SLP of 28.96" or 981 mb. Winds had become much lighter, with the center barely south then, at 14 knots from the ESE. Two hours earlier they were at 43 knots, gusting to 58 knots. All of the constantly updated data is here along with a cool recent photo of the high seas:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... ><br

down to 980mb now, so close to the center. Will be telling when the south side of the storm hits. That is where the highest winds are according to recon.

[Kingarabian]

Compared to 5 hours ago, the NW quad is much stronger.



This is about 2.5 hours ago. It's likely just off shore now.

[Ronel2020]

We have been in a pretty decent band on Johns Island (near Charleston) for an hour or so. Looks like we will be in it for a while. Fortunately, the wind is offshore here, so the surge risk is minimal now. Power has flickered by has stayed on for the most part. Very cool though. Temp hovering in the 60s.