ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.

I think the opposite. The farther east it goes, it's because it's encountering strong westerly winds aloft (shear). In addition, it would cut across some tall mountains in Cuba. Might peak east of Florida in that case.

what is your prediction for the intensity at landfall on the FL west coast? It appears the guidance is steadily dropping. Is it possible it is only a TS by the time the shear in the gulf is done with it?

[SFLcane]

[skyline385]

TD?

AL, 98, 2022092300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 672W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like it’s putting the dry air and sheer behind it

[Aric Dunn]

Should be TD ..

Engines ready!

https://i.postimg.cc/c1BQ33Hf/8-F4-E0364-2794-4-A8-F-B069-2-B76-B10-A8-FBD.gif

I am starting to think the GFS developing the south end of the wave is right as opposed to the Euro trying to spin up the top. It looks like the spin is already started on the south end

You definitely shouldn't buy into the eastern solutions. Euro very likely over doing the weakness left behind from Fiona then add in the right bias (typically from exaggerating troughs). You should find the middle ground here. Also definitely wait until models have more data.

Also... I guess that one transitory shower over a weak swirl wasn't meaningless...

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/KjGQTDhs/A14-FE4-F4-CAE3-4480-A1-A9-42-BCDCC81920.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/zBS03P6g/B840929-C-6-E2-A-4493-BD3-C-459-BCB8-FA57-C.gif

The convection is intense! It does not take much to get this going.

[eastcoastFL]

Caribbean wide view

[Teban54]

TD?

AL, 98, 2022092300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 672W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

Doesn't LO mean a low instead of a TC?

[skyline385]

TD?

AL, 98, 2022092300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 672W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

Doesn't LO mean a low instead of a TC?

yea i accidently glanced over the invest part as well. No change it looks like...

[eastcoastFL]

SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path

[skyline385]

WTNT21 KNGU 222100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (98L) REISSUED//
REF/A/FLTWEACEN NORFOLK VA/212100Z SEP 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(WTNT21 KNGU 212100)//
RMKS/1.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 66.2W TO 14.0N 70.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 66.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3.THIS MESSAGE SUPERSEDES REF A. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED,
SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO
WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 232100Z.//

[ConvergenceZone]

SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Of course what helps the STDs is the fact that it's untapped due to such low tropical activity in the carib this season...

[typhoonty]

When forecasting formative tropical cyclones facing moderate to heavy shear vectors, I have been well served in expecting a center reformation or two to occur downshear as the vortex tries to align itself with the deepest convection. You can sort of see this happening on the 18Z HWRF, multiple center reformations southwest as 98L gets vertically stacked. This will make it difficult, though not impossible, to squeeze east of the Florida Peninsula.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2022092300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 672W, 30, 1006, LO

[Iceresistance]

SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Of course what helps the STDs is the fact that it's untapped due to such low tropical activity in the carib this season...

The OHC is also crazy high too, we could have an absolute beast with this one.

[hipshot]

SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Again, I don't understand why I'm seeing replicated pages on this board from days ago.
I open a new page and it is the same posts with later post numbers from pages ago. Is there
something wrong with my Google browser or is something goofy going on with this web site?

[eastcoastFL]

SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Of course what helps the STDs is the fact that it's untapped due to such low tropical activity in the carib this season...

.
I hadn’t considered that. Pretty fresh pools for now.

[eastcoastFL]

SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Again, I don't understand why I'm seeing replicated pages on this board from days ago.
I open a new page and it is the same posts with later post numbers from pages ago. Is there
something wrong with my Google browser or is something goofy going on with this web site?

I just posted that 10 mins ago.

[Iceresistance]

SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Again, I don't understand why I'm seeing replicated pages on this board from days ago.
I open a new page and it is the same posts with later post numbers from pages ago. Is there
something wrong with my Google browser or is something goofy going on with this web site?

Mods/admins cleaning up this forum due to useless posts.

[eastcoastFL]

Engines ready!

https://i.postimg.cc/c1BQ33Hf/8-F4-E0364-2794-4-A8-F-B069-2-B76-B10-A8-FBD.gif

I am starting to think the GFS developing the south end of the wave is right as opposed to the Euro trying to spin up the top. It looks like the spin is already started on the south end

You definitely shouldn't buy into the eastern solutions. Euro very likely over doing the weakness left behind from Fiona then add in the right bias (typically from exaggerating troughs). You should find the middle ground here. Also definitely wait until models have more data.

Also... I guess that one transitory shower over a weak swirl wasn't meaningless...

The run right now is showing a very strong trough. Does that seem overblown? I don’t remember seeing it before. I wonder how much these shift once they classify it. It seems it should be a TD by morning now unless convection dies off.