ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Just an FYI from the Sarasota area, gas stations were insane (hitting them tomorrow), grocery stores wiped out. Word is Costco is out of everything but at BJ's Wholesale other than idiots in the gas line acting like idiots, plenty of water and canned foodstuffs for the unprepared.

Publix was W-I-L-D.

Can report Tampa the same

Unleaded running out here and there. No water to be found anywhere

Same in Key West. Water is sold. Regular gas is out, one of the few times Im happy my vehicle like premium.

[BobHarlem]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/729/cmPc0S.gif

Something trying to wrap around the center there? I'm wondering whehn I wake up tomorrow if this thing will look a lot different.

[cheezyWXguy]

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

No doubt. And the one after that as well, they’ll have more information.

How do you shift that?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_geps_latest.png

If any of those tracks, or the mean, end up correct I will renounce weather-weenie-ing for the rest of hurricane season

[cycloneye]

Starting early.

Yes. The planned departure was 10:15 PM.

[aspen]

I really don’t know what I’m going to wake up to tomorrow morning. Earlier recon data suggested the system was stacked and a little further north, but the MLC/LLC still seems pretty bare, and it’s unclear how long Ian will continue going W or WSW, so maybe this N shift doesn’t impact the track all that much. Or the offset convection tugs the system even further north than it already has been. Will Ian’s track take a huge east shift? How organized will it be tomorrow morning, with 48 hours left in the WCar?

[Gums]

Salute!

from years of experiencing and watching, I still have good feelings about the front coming down over the southeast. Traditionally, the fronts have not only helped steering but have diminished strength.

Gums sends....

[chaser1]

Small intense storms wig me out. Tendancy to deepen or weaken really fast. Stearing more easily reactive to nuanced influences. My view is let this stew to the south for a while cuz that is one significant shortwave forecast to swing south from the Eastern Great Lakes to New England. Greater ridging in the west would amplify that trough. If Ian goes on the NW (or NNW) move any bit sooner, then we could see this little fella headin' for Disney World lol. Right or wrong though, i just don't feel like I've got a solid handle on this one. Even with all the increased data going into the 0Z model runs, I question whether Ian has quite yet developed the vertical core for models to better forecast future track. Once we get to that point however, Ian's track should finally be locked & loaded.

[canebeard]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/729/cmPc0S.gif

Something trying to wrap around the center there? I'm wondering whehn I wake up tomorrow if this thing will look a lot different.

It will look a lot different.

[otowntiger]

I really don’t know what I’m going to wake up to tomorrow morning. Earlier recon data suggested the system was stacked and a little further north, but the MLC/LLC still seems pretty bare, and it’s unclear how long Ian will continue going W or WSW, so maybe this N shift doesn’t impact the track all that much. Or the offset convection tugs the system even further north than it already has been. Will Ian’s track take a huge east shift? How organized will it be tomorrow morning, with 48 hours left in the WCar?

All very good questions. To me it doesn’t look as if it’s organized one bit all day. It should be ramping up just about now if the forecast is going to be correct. No evidence of that attm.

[floridasun]

with stift to right you think cone cover south fl again down in miami dade or wait over night to see more stift to east over night

[PTrackerLA]

with stift to right you think cone cover south fl again down in miami dade or wait over night to see more stift to east over night

The NHC track is still east of the latest TVCN, I don't see how they would shift the track right at 11pm.

[BobHarlem]

with stift to right you think cone cover south fl again down in miami dade or wait over night to see more stift to east over night

The NHC track is still east of the latest TVCN, I don't see how they would shift the track right at 11pm.

https://i.imgur.com/gAgdrPc.png

My guess they won't touch it and wait until 0z global runs with the newer data.

[otowntiger]

with stift to right you think cone cover south fl again down in miami dade or wait over night to see more stift to east over night

The NHC track is still east of the latest TVCN, I don't see how they would shift the track right at 11pm.

https://i.imgur.com/gAgdrPc.png

yeah, I’d be surprised if the NHC shifts their track at all in this advisory based on that graphic right there. Will hold steady imho.

[CrazyC83]

I'd just leave the track alone for now and make shifts as needed at 5 am.

[skillz305]

I'm very curious as to what latitude the NHC labels Ian at, at 11pm.

[CronkPSU]

I'm very curious as to what latitude the NHC labels Ian at, at 11pm.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 77.7W
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[Stormcenter]

Track was shifted westward per 11pm discussion.

[d3v123]

So with NHC tracking even more west again this run, do we expect to keep that west trend/placement?

[MetroMike]

Track was shifted westward per 11pm discussion.

Shows me not to pay attention to some tweets on here tonight.

[psyclone]

that is a big adjustment westward.