ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

12Z TVCN is in. No big changes. Passes about 30 miles offshore Clearwater Thursday moving VERY slowly. Landfall just north of Crystal River late Thursday. Lots of uncertainty about where that slowing will occur. Ian's forward speed next 48 hrs will play an important role in where it moves inland south of Tampa and slows down or if it slows down just offshore. For now, I have it passing offshore.

I’m waiting to see what happens on the 12z.
Thoughts on W Shift on 06Z Euro?

[wxman57]

12Z TVCN is in. No big changes. Passes about 30 miles offshore Clearwater Thursday moving VERY slowly. Landfall just north of Crystal River late Thursday. Lots of uncertainty about where that slowing will occur. Ian's forward speed next 48 hrs will play an important role in where it moves inland south of Tampa and slows down or if it slows down just offshore. For now, I have it passing offshore.

Thoughts on W Shift on 06Z Euro?

Would rather it be wrong. Forecast gets tricky up around Tampa area. High pressure to the north may block it for a bit. Would be good for Tampa.

[Fancy1001]

12Z TVCN is in. No big changes. Passes about 30 miles offshore Clearwater Thursday moving VERY slowly. Landfall just north of Crystal River late Thursday. Lots of uncertainty about where that slowing will occur. Ian's forward speed next 48 hrs will play an important role in where it moves inland south of Tampa and slows down or if it slows down just offshore. For now, I have it passing offshore.

I think I post that in the wrong line
Thoughts on W Shift on 06Z Euro?

[Fancy1001]

12Z TVCN is in. No big changes. Passes about 30 miles offshore Clearwater Thursday moving VERY slowly. Landfall just north of Crystal River late Thursday. Lots of uncertainty about where that slowing will occur. Ian's forward speed next 48 hrs will play an important role in where it moves inland south of Tampa and slows down or if it slows down just offshore. For now, I have it passing offshore.

I’m waiting to see what happens on the 12z.
Thoughts on W Shift on 06Z Euro?

Never mind it’s bugging out for some reason

[Iceresistance]

Was going to put the WeatherNerds Satellite loop here, but the site had a nasty error that wiped it out almost all of the loop.

[Iceresistance]

Microwave pass over Ian, the northern band appears to be weakening compared to the previous pass. Nasty eyewall though.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Microwave-pass-over-Ian.gif

[aspen]

Seems to be that Ian will remain steady until the eyewall gets a little better closed. I’m thinking it could make landfall in Cuba as an 85-90 kt Cat 2, then peak as a 105–115 kt major in the Gulf before shear picks up.

[skillz305]

Is Ian moving NNW or am I extremely exhausted working my 6am-4:30pm shift?

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems to be that Ian will remain steady until the eyewall gets a little better closed. I’m thinking it could make landfall in Cuba as an 85-90 kt Cat 2, then peak as a 105–115 kt major in the Gulf before shear picks up.

Was just about to remark that intensity has leveled off, and that NW eyewall needs some work. However, it’s grown a lot in size and the wind field has gradually gotten more symmetrical over the last 12 hours. Structural changes ongoing…

[Iceresistance]

Was going to put the WeatherNerds Satellite loop here, but the site had a nasty error that wiped it out almost all of the loop.

Nevermind, I got it.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/55067916.gif

[toad strangler]

Is Ian moving NNW or am I extremely exhausted working my 6am-4:30pm shift?

I would stick with NHC direction even when a wobble happens. And that is an overall NW movement.

[FLpanhandle91]

Is Ian moving NNW or am I extremely exhausted working my 6am-4:30pm shift?

I would stick with NHC direction even when a wobble happens. And that is an overall NW movement.

Eye dropsonde is .2 degrees due north of the 8AM advisory position. At this point I'd consider it a wobble, but we will have to keep an eye on trends.

[Sanibel]

RI probably gulped-in some remnant dry air from Fiona...


This is a tough call on evacuation here on Sanibel because of the Charley factor...Plus I think this one might have surge unlike Charley, Wilma, and Irma...


The Bermuda High will make us or break us...

[TallyTracker]

The convection is still pulsing. Is there mid-level shear impacting the cyclone that has not been analyzed properly? That with dry air intrusions is what it looks like to me. It wouldn’t be the first time unforeseen mid-level shear caused problems with a developing hurricane. Only a little can severely disrupt a hurricane.

[underthwx]

RI probably gulped-in some remnant dry air from Fiona...


This is a tough call on evacuation here on Sanibel because of the Charley factor...Plus I think this one might have surge unlike Charley, Wilma, and Irma...


The Bermuda High will make us or break us...

With the forecasted intensity of Ian, and the threat it poses to yall in the warned areas, this cyclone is better watched from afar, until the threat passes...

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1574401215236030467

[Category6]

The rain bands that were well north of the storm completely fell apart. Sunny and unusually still (and extra humid) morning here in Fort Lauderdale.

[TheHurricaneGod]

The rain bands that were well north of the storm completely fell apart. Sunny and unusually still (and extra humid) morning here in Fort Lauderdale.

same general location. ready to enjoy 20 mph winds and some rain! Is there a nearby wind tunnel hurricane simulator?

[wxman57]

Looking further into the 6Z Euro, it moves Ian slower, allowing it to be blocked by building high pressure to the north on Thursday. That's the little wiggle in the track you see west of Tampa on the ensembles below. Once the high moves east, Ian continues north toward the panhandle, where it would encounter increasing wind shear and very dry air. That could cause Ian to weaken to a TS before it moved inland up in the panhandle. Would be quite good for those of you on the FL peninsula if this happens. Only one run, though. Ian's forward speed next 48 hrs will be key.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL09_2022092606_ECENS_0-120h_large.png?1664198476

[skillz305]

The rain bands that were well north of the storm completely fell apart. Sunny and unusually still (and extra humid) morning here in Fort Lauderdale.

same general location. ready to enjoy 20 mph winds and some rain! Is there a nearby wind tunnel hurricane simulator?

Y’all are wishcasting huh