ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

One of the southernmost Post-tropical Transitions I've ever seen for September standards.

...IAN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT THE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUES...

5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30
Location: 33.9°N 79.2°W
Moving: N at 15 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Deep convection has ceased now that Ian has lost its energy source
from the Atlantic Ocean, and the circulation has wrapped into cooler
surface air. Thus, Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low.
The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt based on elevated
hurricane-force winds still being observed on radar offshore of
eastern South Carolina.

Ian continues to move faster to the north, around 13 kt, and should
turn to the north-northwest later today due to a shortwave trough
over the southeastern United States. Ian should rapidly weaken in
the cool airmass and dissipate by early Sunday over western North
Carolina or Virginia. No significant changes were made to the
track or intensity forecast.

It should be emphasized that just because Ian has become a
post-tropical cyclone that the danger is not over. Dangerous storm
surge, flash flooding and high winds are still in the forecast from
this cyclone.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge this evening
along the coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning
areas.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the warning area
through early Saturday.

3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through
next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding
is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally
considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North
Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 33.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 01/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1800Z 37.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Coolcruiseman]

I went to South Daytona/Port Orange area this morning because of work, I think that reanalysis is going to show that Ian was a hurricane again way sooner than when the recon got there later in the evening.
The damage that I saw is not of a TS, the wind damage that I see on TV on structures right on the Beach is definitely of a hurricane. The Beach Safety Headquarter Station right on the beach reported sustained hurricane force winds with wind gusts in the 90s, but not sure the height of the anemometer.

That area was getting battered all afternoon/night Wednesday as Ian moved across the state. Consistently hurricane force gusts reported while watching WFTV coverage. Tom Terry's team was discussing how the uniqueness of Ian was contributing (the cold air being pulled in, the high just to the northwest, etc).

[StAuggy]

Based on the geography of the SC coast… you can’t have a landfall in Georgetown. I know they said near Georgetown. Is this because they can’t really discern and go with the nearest city for now?

Based on the angle of approach it should be Cat Island or Collins Island. I assume that will be updated at some point

edit* I found a small stretch of shore between Collins Island and Pawleys Island that indeed shows up as Georgetown. I will assume then Ian made landfall in this stretch of shoreline

[Iceresistance]

Based on the geography of the SC coast… you can’t have a landfall in Georgetown. I know they said near Georgetown. Is this because they can’t really discern and go with the nearest city for now?

Based on the angle of approach it should be Cat Island or Collins Island. I assume that will be updated at some point

Likely the location of landfall closest to a town/city for a reference point.

[StAuggy]

Based on the geography of the SC coast… you can’t have a landfall in Georgetown. I know they said near Georgetown. Is this because they can’t really discern and go with the nearest city for now?

Based on the angle of approach it should be Cat Island or Collins Island. I assume that will be updated at some point

Likely the location of landfall closest to a town/city for a reference point.

I edited my post but there was indeed a stretch of coastline that shows up as Georgetown when you drop a pin. I was surprised to see it that far from the town.

[ThunderForce]

Yikes, Ian's wind field is extremely large according to the NHC's wind field graphic. It looks like the TS-force winds extend further than where the convection is.

[cycloneye]

I think this might become the longest thread of the season. We'll see. Here's IR (data is slightly delayed):

https://imgur.com/bC5pvNu

Yes it was. In fact it ranks #7 among the most longer threads.
Ike
Irma
Dorian
Harvey
Ian
Wilma
Michael

[Teban54]

I think this might become the longest thread of the season. We'll see. Here's IR (data is slightly delayed):

https://imgur.com/bC5pvNu

Yes it was. In fact it ranks #7 among the most longer threads.
Ike
Irma
Dorian
Harvey
Michael
Wilma
Ian

Isn't the Ike thread even longer than Irma?

[typhoonty]

Agree with the previous statement. People need to take the action to leave when they are told to. We can’t force them to, and it’s a personal choice and I get that. It’s sad that some folks wouldn’t leave when they knew it was going to be catastrophic.

This is the one thing I will push back on, they didn't know it would be catastrophic. 95% of so heard basically the same exact messaging for Irma when it was projected to go west of Sanibel. I can't blame people who look at the same exact message being given for two storms in 5 years and thinking that it's probably the same hype. The problem was no one said that while the highest storm surge values were for Tampa. The highest confidence in storm surge occurring was south of Tampa because they were more likely to be south of the eye.

I know they say don't look at the line or the icon, but they ABSOLUTELY based the storm surge forecast off of the center line track with no margin of error. We all knew on this forum that Fort Myers was going to get more than 4-7' of surge if it made landfall at the south end of the cone but that was never communicated to anyone.

[cycloneye]

I think this might become the longest thread of the season. We'll see. Here's IR (data is slightly delayed):

https://imgur.com/bC5pvNu

Yes it was. In fact it ranks #7 among the most longer threads.
Ike
Irma
Dorian
Harvey
Michael
Wilma
Ian

Isn't the Ike thread even longer than Irma?

Indeed is #1.

[LarryWx]

Based on the geography of the SC coast… you can’t have a landfall in Georgetown. I know they said near Georgetown. Is this because they can’t really discern and go with the nearest city for now?

Based on the angle of approach it should be Cat Island or Collins Island. I assume that will be updated at some point

edit* I found a small stretch of shore between Collins Island and Pawleys Island that indeed shows up as Georgetown. I will assume then Ian made landfall in this stretch of shoreline

At 2:05 PM, the time of landfall, the NHC said that Ian was at 33.3N, 79.2W. That, indeed, is at the south end of Collins Island, which is SE of Georgetown or "near Georgetown". It appears Ian may have barely scraped it with the left side of the center because the true center continued close to due north from there and had to have passed Conway just to its east and not too many miles west of Myrtle Beach based on Conway having no SE or S winds the rest of the afternoon. Conway is actually slightly east of Collins Island's longitude, too. It is all kind of strange.

[Vdogg]

I suspect that the strongest winds are probably some distance away from the center with the storm being in its hybrid configuration at the moment. And it probably does not have a sharp wind maximum anywhere, but probably a spread-out high wind plateau of high-tropical-storm winds covering a larger area. I seriously doubt if this thing has hurricane force winds anywhere near the surface. Still, it can definitely cause some rain flooding and minor coastal flooding on the east side.

We've had TS level winds and heavy rain for hours here in VA. Beach. Well away from the center, which often happens with these extratropical transitions.

[typhoonty]

Good cell reception at Twins Spring Training ballpark...

A relative saw a flyover of my house...Roof intact and apparently still standing...Hope it didn't wash through in living area above stilts...

Funeral home was prompt and took my mother's body away yesterday at 1pm...4 foor surge had lapped at building first floor where she died...Person also died of heart attack there in car...

Got word from Sun Dial Resort 20 foot surge washed through second storie there...

I am so sorry Sanibel, I can't imagine what you are going through. Thank you for the update though, I'm glad you're alive. My godmother contacted me this morning, water got into my house 12 feet high in Iona but she made it.

[Iceresistance]

Yes it was. In fact it ranks #7 among the most longer threads.
Ike
Irma
Dorian
Harvey
Michael
Wilma
Ian

Isn't the Ike thread even longer than Irma?

Indeed is #1.

Here is the thread posting numbers to be exact in the discussion page (As of 6:30 PM CST on 9/30/2022)

#1: Ike - 13,505 posts
#2: Irma - 12,435 posts
#3: Dorian - 9,186 posts
#4: Harvey - 7,832 posts
#5: Ian - 6,033 posts (will update when this is done and over as the last post)
#6: Wilma - 5,624 posts
#7: Michael - 4,367 posts

[cycloneye]

Isn't the Ike thread even longer than Irma?

Indeed is #1.

Here is the thread posting numbers to be exact in the discussion page (As of 6:30 PM CST on 9/30/2022)

#1: Ike - 13,505 posts
#2: Irma - 12,435 posts
#3: Dorian - 9,186 posts
#4: Harvey - 7,832 posts
#5: Ian - 6,033 posts (will update when this is done and over as the last post)
#6: Wilma - 5,624 posts
#7: Michael - 4,367 posts

Ok this is it. Thank you.

[cycloneye]

Indeed is #1.

Here is the thread posting numbers to be exact in the discussion page (As of 6:30 PM CST on 9/30/2022)

#1: Ike - 13,505 posts
#2: Irma - 12,435 posts
#3: Dorian - 9,186 posts
#4: Harvey - 7,832 posts
#5: Ian - 6,033 posts (will update when this is done and over as the last post)
#6: Wilma - 5,624 posts
#7: Michael - 4,367 posts

Ok, this is it. Edited my post. Thank you.

[StAuggy]

Isn't the Ike thread even longer than Irma?

Indeed is #1.

Here is the thread posting numbers to be exact in the discussion page (As of 6:30 PM CST on 9/30/2022)

#1: Ike - 13,505 posts
#2: Irma - 12,435 posts
#3: Dorian - 9,186 posts
#4: Harvey - 7,832 posts
#5: Ian - 6,033 posts (will update when this is done and over as the last post)
#6: Wilma - 5,624 posts
#7: Michael - 4,367 posts

Looking at this short list… it’s clear the curse of the “I” names holds weight

[Buck]

Isn't the Ike thread even longer than Irma?

Indeed is #1.

Here is the thread posting numbers to be exact in the discussion page (As of 6:30 PM CST on 9/30/2022)

#1: Ike - 13,505 posts
#2: Irma - 12,435 posts
#3: Dorian - 9,186 posts
#4: Harvey - 7,832 posts
#5: Ian - 6,033 posts (will update when this is done and over as the last post)
#6: Wilma - 5,624 posts
#7: Michael - 4,367 posts

Should we send this to NHC so they can store this info too?
At least add it to the wikipedia pages about Hurricane records/notable storms.

[Category5Kaiju]

After tracking Ian, I think I've really come to realization on how terrifying storm surge is.

When you imagine the textbook picture of hurricane destruction, you would think that it was because of the wind. No. It's storm surge that causes such a kind of destruction. No wonder why the destruction left by a powerful hurricane almost looks like a tsunami destruction.

[cycloneye]

After tracking Ian, I think I've really come to realization on how terrifying storm surge is.

When you imagine the textbook picture of hurricane destruction, you would think that it was because of the wind. No. It's storm surge that causes such a kind of destruction. No wonder why the destruction left by a powerful hurricane almost looks like a tsunami destruction.

Storm surge is the most destructive thing apart from the winds in a powerful hurricane.