ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

NHC has been following TVCN very closely.

I suspect the new cone will be near Cedar Key like the TVCN

I’ll suspect Hernando Beach/Crystal River. Not far of a difference, but big enough of terms of impacts to Tampa Bay Area.

[verruckt]

I just heard from local news that SE Florida may dodge yet another bad storm.


Not sure how much I believe that.

We might only get outer band squalls out of this down here but I agree with the local met as well but it also depends on the size of the storm too.

agreed. It has time to grow in size as well as intensity.

Yep. Also good to keep in mind that the storm is already essentially 1 degree squared. It's already pretty large.

[cane5]

Weather channel is possibly expecting a more Western movement but like we all have agreed nobody knows anything including the WC and it might be days until we know what we have and where it’s going. Been around too long to enjoy anything but the comments here and learn from the experts but even they are having trouble with this one as does the NHC or somebody would have the inside track and report it.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

LLC has been relocating to the SW as a result of the wind shear. This was consistently forecasted by the GFS/HWRF and is why the Euro has been too far east. The initial "launching off" point is going to be just as critical as the strength of the trough.

[Ivanhater]

Another adjustment North and West




Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

[Jelmergraaff]

Peak intensity bumped up to 105kt/120mph by the NHC at +96h.

[NDG]

Another adjustment North and West


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/2fe35c3db56c0dc802a8aacffad503b3.jpg

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

The cone of uncertainty is fairly wide at day 4 & 5, anything can still change by several miles at this point.

[Jelmergraaff]

Another adjustment North and West


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/2fe35c3db56c0dc802a8aacffad503b3.jpg

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

Not sure if it's "on purpose" (to let people know the intensity around Cuba) or that they're actually forecasting Ian to emerge into the GOM after landfall as a MH?

[wxman57]

NHC track right on top of mine, as expected. They stick close to TVCN, which is not a bad strategy. I thing shear and dry air may prevent it from reaching Cat 3 in the Gulf, but lots of uncertainty there.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There are a couple of things to consider with Ian and how it affects Florida.
1. How strong it is when it gets in the gulf
2. Where it crosses Cuba. Further west would seem to imply a further north landfall
3. The angle of landfall. Storms that tend to parallel the coast for a significant time typically weaken because they are pulling in dryer air from land. Remember circulation is counter clockwise as opposed to paralleling the east coast. A perpendicular hit means a stronger storm at landfall. Charlie is a good example of that.
4. How strong is the trough. How is it oriented. That is going to determine how strong the "tug" will be.
5. Timing. When does this cross Cuba and get to the GOM

These are the things to be watching. They will determine the endgame and also whether this rides up the East Coast or makes a second landfall in the Carolinas or stays inland over Georgia.

[jfk08c]

I think Sunday will give a lot more of an idea after Ian starts to make it's turn up to Cuba

[Weatherboy1]

Judging from evolving satellite picture, I’m very curious to see if MLC is aligning over the LLC up closer to 15N …

[verruckt]

Another adjustment North and West


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/2fe35c3db56c0dc802a8aacffad503b3.jpg

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

Not sure if it's "on purpose" (to let people know the intensity around Cuba) or that they're actually forecasting Ian to emerge into the GOM after landfall as a MH?

My guess is SSTs and limited shear.

Those waters are 30 to 32c right now.

[eastcoastFL]

Another adjustment North and West


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/2fe35c3db56c0dc802a8aacffad503b3.jpg

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

Not sure if it's "on purpose" (to let people know the intensity around Cuba) or that they're actually forecasting Ian to emerge into the GOM after landfall as a MH?

They mention in the disco that it won’t be over Cuba long so they don’t expect the land interaction with Cuba to effect intensity

[NDG]

Officially from the NHC's latest discussion:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1454.shtml

Limited land interaction is
expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian
is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

I personally think it will become a MH before crossing Cuba and stay as a MH as it approaches FL.

[gatorcane]

Officially from the NHC's latest discussion:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1454.shtml

Limited land interaction is
expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian
is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

I personally think it will become a MH before crossing Cuba and stay as a MH as it approaches FL.

Agreed

[cycloneye]

Judging from evolving satellite picture, I’m very curious to see if MLC is aligning over the LLC up closer to 15N …

We will find out very soon as Recon is on it's way.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is almost there, but looking at the coordinates the 11am advisory has on satellite, there is quite a bit of convection firing over the NHCs center point. Recon might find this a bit more stacked now. I personally think this becomes a hurricane a little earlier than forecast for late Sunday... I am thinking Sunday morning.

[MGC]

Officially from the NHC's latest discussion:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1454.shtml

Limited land interaction is
expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian
is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

I personally think it will become a MH before crossing Cuba and stay as a MH as it approaches FL.

I'm thinking the same.....NW Caribbean looks ideal for RI. Warm SST and low shear. Might weaken at approach it Florida due to shear......MGC

[wxman57]

Officially from the NHC's latest discussion:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1454.shtml

Limited land interaction is
expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian
is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

I personally think it will become a MH before crossing Cuba and stay as a MH as it approaches FL.

I'm not buying the MH into FL yet. Lots of wind shear in the NE Gulf that it will be fighting. Dry air, too. NHC may be erring on the high side to get the public to take action, not a bad move on their part. We may not even be certain where Ian will make landfall by Tuesday morning. Similar to Charley. Small changes in its heading will make a big difference in track. Fort Myers not out of the question, neither is eastern Panhandle.

Ok, I've been going solid for 6 hrs since 4:30am on Ian, Gaston, and Hermine. Time for a break.