ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

AL, 09, 2022093000, , BEST, 0, 297N, 794W, 70, 986, HU, 34, NEQ, 360, 140, 150, 200, 1008, 260, 40, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IAN, D, 12, NEQ, 270, 120, 60, 90, genesis-num, 028,

[boogiefrizz]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

Sanibel, my deepest condolences. I'm a complete stranger to you, but you are one of those names that is synonymous with storm2k. I'm so incredibly sorry for your loss.

Sent from my SM-A716U using Tapatalk

[bcargile]

I don’t understand the posters saying it’s strengthening when it appears to have fallen apart. The radar views I find only show the top half with moisture.

[Sciencerocks]

[hohnywx]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[hohnywx]

I don’t understand the posters saying it’s strengthening when it appears to have fallen apart. The radar views I find only show the top half with moisture.

The 11 PM discussion from the NHC addresses this:

Ian continues to have the appearance of a hybrid tropical cyclone, having the characteristics of both an extratropical low with some frontal features, and a sheared tropical cyclone with convection well removed from the low-level center. The system is interacting with a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough just to its west, and this interaction may be contributing to slight strengthening.

[SconnieCane]

Delete. Previous post said essentially the same thing.

[GCANE]

Tower firing off

[WilmingtonSandbar]

11pm update has landfall very close to Myrtle now. Hurricane Warnings may need to be extended north to New Hanover County and Pender County soon.

[Beef Stew]

I don’t understand the posters saying it’s strengthening when it appears to have fallen apart. The radar views I find only show the top half with moisture.

In the traditional sense, its structure has fallen apart. That being said, we’re not really looking at a traditional storm here, but rather a hybrid system that has characteristics of both an extratropical cyclone and a true warm-core tropical cyclone. As the NHC put it in their most recent discussion:

“Ian continues to have the appearance of a hybrid tropical cyclone, having the characteristics of both an extratropical low with some frontal features, and a sheared tropical cyclone with convection well removed from the low-level center.”

“It should be emphasized that although Ian is not expected to be a classic hurricane at landfall, this does not diminish the threat it poses. Strong winds and storm surge will also extend far from the center and will begin well before the center arrives.“


Despite this appearance and transition, Ian is still strengthening due to favorable interaction with the trough, as well as the warm SST’s from the Gulf Stream below it. The most recent recon has confirmed this with dropsonde, SFMR, and center-fix data. While its hurricane appearance, if you will, is falling apart- the system that is Ian itself is continuing to strengthen.

[AJF060288]

85mph now

[weeniepatrol]

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN A LITTLE
STRONGER...

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Ian's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h).

[CronkPSU]

I don’t understand the posters saying it’s strengthening when it appears to have fallen apart. The radar views I find only show the top half with moisture.

well it is now 85 mph so it IS strengthening

[tropicwatch]

I don’t understand the posters saying it’s strengthening when it appears to have fallen apart. The radar views I find only show the top half with moisture.

well it is now 85 mph so it IS strengthening

And forecast had been calling for 80mph. Ian loves his tricks.

[Hurricane Mac]

Here is something I am having trouble with and hopefully those more knowledgeable than me can help with.
I live in Sumter, SC, which is now under the orange TS storm force winds according to the 11pm advisory. However, the station at Shaw AFB (about a mile from my house) has not reported TS force sustained or gusts to this point. I also checked closer to the coast to see what they were experiencing and also found places like Beaufort and Charleston are also below TS force gusts. Only Hilton Head is reporting as NE 30 Gust 45.
So why would the NHC show the wind field so large into SC when it is not showing up on any of the NWS weather stations?
Thanks!

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

I think there may be some chance at this rate Ian could reach category 2 before landfall. The trees in the Carolinas are not suited to such winds, especially away from the coast - deciduous trees do not do well.

[jasons2k]

I have on WTOC from Savannah. It’s 59 degrees in Savannah under a Tropical Storm Warning. You don’t see that every day.

[cycloneye]

TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1115 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN A LITTLE
STRONGER...

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Ian's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, Ian is still strengthening. This storm is just plain ridiculous, it almost seems like it has a mind of its own and wants to make life as miserable as possible across the SE US.