ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

NOAA plane bailed. Going home

Is it the storm? Seems to be a reoccurring theme.

[kevin]

When are the next recon planes leaving? I expect there to be recon all the way up until landfall just like f.e. Ida last year.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Peninsula side of FL hasn't seen a hurricane this strong since Andrew. You have to go back many decades to find a hurricane this intense approach SWFL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I just got up and I can't not believe that this thing is basically a cat 5. Unreal. Power went on and off during the night but I'd on now. Internet is out. Anyone else around the treasure coast having similar issues ?

Yep. Nice to know xfinity system can't even sustain rain.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm honestly flabbergasted by how many Cat 4+ storms in the Gulf have made landfall in the CONUS since 2017. Ever since then, with the exception of 2019, every year has had one of these kinds of storms, and Ian looks to continue this deadly pattern. Unlike years before then, Cat 4+ GoM storms aren't weakening before landfall, they're literally strengthening up until then. Not sure what is causing this pattern, whether it is a property of the gulf itself that has changed or if something in the Atlantic atmospheric state is causing it, but I can bet you that unless something drastic happens, it's likely that 2023, 2024, and so forth will feature at least one of these kinds of systems in their respective seasons.

It's only a matter of time before those maps depicting Harvey, Michael, Laura, Ida, and (now) Ian are going to become totally unreadable.

[NDG]

Wow, pressure continues to drop.

[wx98]

When are the next recon planes leaving? I expect there to be recon all the way up until landfall just like f.e. Ida last year.

Next one doesn’t arrive until 1:30 pm EDT

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 6699643904

[Fancy1001]

Peninsula side of FL hasn't seen a hurricane this strong since Andrew. You have to go back many decades to find a hurricane this intense approach SWFL.

https://i.imgur.com/wzmq55C.jpg

Do you mean western side of the peninsula, peninsula side doesn’t make any sense since most of Florida is a peninsula

[NDG]

My cousin sent me this picture of Tampa Bay from Ana Maria Island where he lives, offshore winds have empty it out ahead of Ian.

 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1575096699583754240

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Peninsula side of FL hasn't seen a hurricane this strong since Andrew. You have to go back many decades to find a hurricane this intense approach SWFL.

https://i.imgur.com/wzmq55C.jpg

Do you mean western side of the peninsula, peninsula side doesn’t make any sense since most of Florida is a peninsula

No, I mean the entire Peninsula. The last hurricane this strong to hit FL in general was Michael in the Panhandle.

[Dean_175]

I hate to say it, but this reminds me of Dorian. The incredible eyewall lightning, the incredibly clear eye, the impressive microwave presentation…this is turning into an absolute monster.

I agree. This cyclone could strengthen to 125-130 knots over the next 18-24 hours.

Models seem to be in pretty good agreement that it is going to begin to interact with the upper trough in such a way that shears the convection eastward and pulls dry air in to the west side, resulting in a weakening system at landfall. Sort of reminds me of how Irma weakened as it was pushed into Florida upon leaving the tropics. I think Florida is looking at a cat 2/3 landfall rather than a cat 3/4.

Well I sure blew that one. Aged like milk. I live in Fort Myers. Hopefully it isn't too bad.

[ronjon]

From radar returns, looks like Ian is getting some dry air entrained on its east and southeast side. Probably the influence of the trough. Hopefully the start of a weakening trend.

[GCANE]

Perfect warm core structure extending to 100mb. Confirmed with the cirrus layering on Visible Satellite.
Basically punching thru the tropopause.
Two cold pools below the warm core to the ocean surface. That is the basic mechanism that pulls warm, moist air out of the water. Same as lake-effect snow/precip in the Great Lakes

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[KWT]

Peninsula side of FL hasn't seen a hurricane this strong since Andrew. You have to go back many decades to find a hurricane this intense approach SWFL.

https://i.imgur.com/wzmq55C.jpg

Do you mean western side of the peninsula, peninsula side doesn’t make any sense since most of Florida is a peninsula

No, I mean the entire Peninsula. The last hurricane this strong to hit FL in general was Michael in the Panhandle.

This is basically Charley's larger brother.

Ian is stronger in terms of peak, but in reality Ian and Charley in terms of max winds into SW Florida are pretty close.

[lovingseason2013]

I just found out that I have a friend in Englewood that didn't evacuate. Oy. I hope he and his wife end up okay.

I have family in Port Charlotte about 300 feet from the harbor just down from 75 bridge that didn't leave because they felt safe because they are directly on the water, I told them that they are going to be directly on the water soon and then become an island in the middle of the harbor. They just don't understand down there, so many people there went through Charley and think this is no different. They don't understand or comprehend storm surge. The ones that survive will come out very different people after this. I know, I have been affected by every major storm that has hit CONUS GOM since 1995. Either through a friend, refugees, as a survivor of Erin, Opal, Ivan, Sally and Michael, as a contractor that went into affected areas, or as a volunteer to help pass out water, Ive seen the horrors these storms bring. I pray for no deaths and for a speedy recovery for these people down there.

UPDATE: My best friend who is living down there also, I got him to pack up and head out east! Still working on the family.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Do you mean western side of the peninsula, peninsula side doesn’t make any sense since most of Florida is a peninsula

No, I mean the entire Peninsula. The last hurricane this strong to hit FL in general was Michael in the Panhandle.

This is basically Charley's larger brother.

Ian is stronger in terms of peak, but in reality Ian and Charley in terms of max winds into SW Florida are pretty close.

Ian's overall kinetic energy is much higher than Charley. But you're right in that Charley is the closest comparison.

[Fancy1001]

What in the world is wrong with the planes or equipment over the last few years.

[skyline385]

Is one of the recon trapped in the eye? Seems to be just doing circles and the other recon turned away at the same time. This could be getting dangerous with the continuous lighting in the eyewall.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Still working on the family.

Too late, honestly. Probably more dangerous to be on the roads right now because the eyewall is almost on shore.