ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

The latest forecast calls for a 120 kt peak which might be an underestimation considering Ian right now, but it of course all depends on how it survives Cuba. Landfall at Tampa has now been raised to 105 kt, which would make it the strongest landfall near Tampa (at least since 1851). Even stronger than the 1921 one which was 100 kt at landfall. Only Charley would surpass it, but that one made landfall quite a bit farther south.

[johngaltfla]

So Ian went from a 75 mph minimal hurricane to 125 mph strong category 3 storm in 24 hours, an increase in 50 mph!

Also from a 45 mph storm at 5pm Sunday to 125 mph this morning at 5am. So that's 80 mph in 36 hours. That's some rapid intensification right there!

This is not a prediction but a warning; do not be surprised if we see another increase after it clears Western Cuba this afternoon up to 140-145 mph. It's a warning that many of us on this board have been saying, a GOM bound storm before water temps drop is a formula for a major disaster. There are so many powerful storms that have intensified in history it's truly scary.

[johngaltfla]

The latest forecast calls for a 120 kt peak which might be an underestimation considering Ian right now, but it of course all depends on how it survives Cuba. Landfall at Tampa has now been raised to 105 kt, which would make it the strongest landfall near Tampa (at least since 1851). Even stronger than the 1921 one which was 100 kt at landfall. Only Charley would surpass it, but that one made landfall quite a bit farther south.

If we get anything above 110 kt at landfall with a slow moving storm and huge storm surge into the mouth of Tampa Bay, this will go down as one of the costliest storms in history. And it might be a historic marker for the housing "boom" in Florida much like the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane. God help us.

[cjrciadt]

Hey I just woke up and we were on page 120, what did I miss

Track around Venice/ Sarasota landfall. Prolific rainfall... Oh and its very strong.

[StAuggy]

https://twitter.com/Central_IL_Wx/statu ... R2R6yFKZ1g

Info on the potential tornado threat coming.

Gcane have you seen any of this yet?

[HDGator]

Graphics version; note no weakening it comes on shore as a major near Tampa:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/042148_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Another shift east takes landfall through Longboat Key and Bradenton up through downtown Tampa.
IMO unless the guidance changes, we may not be through with the eastward shifts.

Extending the Hurricane Warnings down to Bonita Beach appears well warranted. Many from Sarasota and southward will be waking up to bad news this morning.

[Bocadude85]

I’m becoming very concerned for Captiva/Boca Grande/Port Charlotte/Englewood.. models seem to be trending more and more in that direction.

[johngaltfla]

Hey I just woke up and we were on page 120, what did I miss

Track around Venice/ Sarasota landfall. Prolific rainfall... Oh and its very strong.

I just mapped the NHC points, this sucker is projected to traverse right over the Skyway Bridge into south Tampa. Bad for Manatee and Sarasota, but unreal what it will do to the Tampa area on this path. A 120 mph storm slow moving into the bay will create catastrophic flooding.

[johngaltfla]

Graphics version; note no weakening it comes on shore as a major near Tampa:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/042148_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Another shift east takes landfall through Longboat Key and Bradenton up through downtown Tampa.
IMO unless the guidance changes, we may not be through with the eastward shifts.

Extending the Hurricane Warnings down to Bonita Beach appears well warranted. Many from Sarasota and southward will be waking up to bad news this morning.

Bad news this morning?

Hell we haven't had any good news for two days now.

[caneman]

When is the next GFS run?

[NDG]

When is the next GFS run?

Should be starting now.

[bob rulz]

Will never understand people downcasting this storm (and many others). How many storms have we seen explode in exactly this area? The Western Caribbean is a tinderbox.

[jlauderdal]

Will never understand people downcasting this storm (and many others). How many storms have we seen explode in exactly this area? The Western Caribbean is a tinderbox.

What's the big deal, minimal issues at my place, deflector shield stays in place. Seriously, very dangerous situation and just another reminder why the cone is a great tool but impacts go far and wide and the entire western part of Florida from key west to the Bama Florida state line should have been thinking I am getting a major. BTW, the trend is your friend, key west to the panhandle should be prepared for a major hurricane, small change in the steering flow and you get it in any of these areas. NHC is great but their tools and experience go only so far and the dynamics can change faster than they can model it themselves.

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1574694102251499520

[johngaltfla]

Interesting shift south by the GFS. If this trend continues we might get lucky but there are way too many variables until this storm clears Cuba. Once it is 50 miles north of the Western tip and RI is completed, then and only then do I think we get a clear picture. 1100 update it is, and I'm going to be busy as hell.

Good luck to all my Florida Man peeps (and ladies). We're going for a wild ride the next 72 hours.

[beachnut]

Got bounced out of bed at 5am by the alerts going off on our phones, but thank goodness for those. Wow! I'm pretty savvy with these things but honestly this one has me very concerned to say the least. Actually I'm freaking out a bit on the inside. Storm prep is done at the house and now we start moving down to Estero. Hard to decide what to take but will keep it minimal on the first couple runs then get more if we have time, which I thought we had at 11pm last night. I have to say that most people down here have taken a lax attitude towards this storm. Schools should've been closed yesterday and people should've been allowed the day off work. Even today my daughter has to work, hopefully that changes.

[Fancy1001]

It looks like Tampa's 100 year streak might survive after all.

[Jr0d]

https://twitter.com/Central_IL_Wx/status/1574520468400324608?s=20&t=bAtTlizQlN-ER2R6yFKZ1g

Info on the potential tornado threat coming.

Gcane have you seen any of this yet?

We had tornado warning earlier near Islamorada, heard somewhere it was confirmed.

Unfortunately many more warnings and confirmed touchdowns are inevitable the next 60 hours or so.

[Chemmers]

looks like there is still a bit off lighting around the core, will be very interesting what it is like when it comes off Cuba

[johngaltfla]

That GFS precipitation forecast of 40"+ of rain by Friday is something else...

[Jelmergraaff]

That GFS precipitation forecast of 40"+ of rain by Friday is something else...

https://i0.wp.com/johngaltfla.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/092722_0600Z_PRECIP_jgfla.jpg?w=1024&ssl=1

Not used to working with inches, but it's equal to >1200 mm of rainfall... Annual rainfall here in The Netherlands is about 800 mm...

What is the elevation of Tampa Bay area? Is it below sea level or just above it?