ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Not being a wishcaster here but I just dont think the models have a handle on this at all yet.

Its too far out. First Naples was panicking, then Tampa now the jog is more towards the panhandle.

I wouldn't rule anything out at this point and I think Monday we will have a way better handle on this. The cone isn't really an indication of anything till you get 3 days out. This thing is still a thousand miles away

[cheezyWXguy]

Ian is in a formation phase where I'm having trouble locating the surface center to see which of the models was correct on whether the southern end of the wave would grab the center or northern...


To my eye, it looks like the rapidly-improving curvature is roughly starting to define the center...


If so, the trend is more towards GFS than Euro at this point with a verifying flat track towards the west Caribbean, which explains the models nicking left...


I'm guessing where Ian starts to turn north then becomes much more important than the trough...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

This is a good point, I am wondering exactly when the north turn takes place. The gfs takes this further west as a stronger storm, but I think it’s still a little faster with the progression of the trough than the euro (correct me if I’m wrong). I’d imagine a stronger storm would feel more influence from the trough over the next couple of days, and if the euro is closer to correct about trough placement, I wonder if it would turn it north sooner. Not to mention, it’s not implausible Ian gets stronger in the near-mid term than the gfs is showing. It takes 36 hours for the gfs to bring this to hurricane strength, and I think it could be sooner than that if these organizational trends continue. If that’s the case would it bend north a little sooner than the gfs is saying?

[cycloneye]

AF plane decends to operational altitud. Let's see what it finds.

[underthwx]

Not being a wonderful forecaster here but I just dont think the models have a handle on this at all yet.

Its too far out. First Naples was panicking, then Tampa now the jog is more towards the panhandle.

I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.

There is a large spread on where Ian has the potential to ultimately make its landfall, as I read in the 11am NHC update. It's my understanding that thete is a NOAA reconnaissance flight scheduled, which, "will help resolve the steering flow around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week." Are these the two main issues in regards to track/intensity of Ian?

[Aric Dunn]

Just waking up and slept alot... anyway.. I see the HWRF was on the right track with the reformations. Last night it was pretty clear what was happening. I also see the first recon flight pinned a questionable llc. but to the SW of that ( which they did not explore) I see some evidence that there is a vort there as well. I would expect some more subtle shift to the west(north in this case ) for landfal.

[MGC]

Need some additional weather balloons in the midwest to help forecast the strength of the trough that is going to interact with Ian......MGC

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1573364109072015361

Want to point this out because I'm already seeing people ignoring this storm.

WOW!!!!

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1573361006042120194

Yes, Whitmeyer, ALL OF US can tell. It's very obvious that you are a yank and not from ANYWHERE NEAR florida...

Looking more and more like he was right to wait for more data.

[StormingB81]

I still remember Charley’s forecasts. Hopefully people in some areas don’t let down their guard until it’s north of their latitude

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am not sure if I am seeing things correctly, however, it sure does look like the center is at 15 ° North. Lots of rotating blobs around the area there. Who knows. Recon will soon.

[wxman57]

Even a "non major" cane tracking just off the west coast would be a very bad set up for that surge prone region. a big evacuation will be needed if a decent storm takes that trajectory. we need a better deal. i was gunning for easterly shifts keeping us on the weak and dry side. is it shear and dry air to the rescue? we always get bailed out somehow...

Yes, an average-sized Cat 2 striking near Tampa could produce a surge of 12-15 feet into Tampa Bay.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Even a "non major" cane tracking just off the west coast would be a very bad set up for that surge prone region. a big evacuation will be needed if a decent storm takes that trajectory. we need a better deal. i was gunning for easterly shifts keeping us on the weak and dry side. is it shear and dry air to the rescue? we always get bailed out somehow...

Yes, an average-sized Cat 2 striking near Tampa could produce a surge of 12-15 feet into Tampa Bay.

Here is a pretty good Interactive map based on elevations

https://hillsborough.maps.arcgis.com/ap ... aad988d2ec

[Blown Away]

AF plane decends to operational altitud. Let's see what it finds.

I do think the uncertainty down the road is because models have not had a well defined LLC to lock on to.

I think the stalls shown in earlier runs was models moving to fast, nearly all the models have trended slower over past several runs.

To go essentially NW from @15N/80W to the Panhandle @32N in late September and not get kicked NE is not impossible, but seems highly unlikely.

[chris_fit]

Ian is definitely getting 'that look'

[StPeteMike]

Starting to get its dominant bands together in the southeast and northwest sides, pretty stacked, and pretty low shear.

Allow the bands to wrap around more in the next few hours and it’ll start it’s RI. Still thinking it will clip the western tip of Cuba.

[StPeteMike]

AF plane decends to operational altitud. Let's see what it finds.

I do think the uncertainty down the road is because models have not had a well defined LLC to lock on to.

I think the stalls shown in earlier runs was models moving to fast, nearly all the models have trended slower over past several runs.

To go essentially NW from @15N/80W to the Panhandle @32N in late September and not get kicked NE is not impossible, but seems highly unlikely.

Pretty much. If it’s not a drastic change in direction that causes that stall in models, likely just stumped on not having a strong llc and not enough feedback from atmospheric samples yet to add the two together and get a definite answer (or close to it)

[wxman57]

Minor changes to Ian's position now are not so significant. Major weather feature will be a deepening trof across the central and western Gulf this week. No matter where Ian tracks in the Caribbean, it's not crossing the upper wind flow. That flow would take it to Florida. 12Z GFS is smoking that crack again. Worst model for this storm.

[Aric Dunn]

I see recon is already locking on to a clear edy on the edge of the convection. I sure hope they explore around 13,8 north. likely multiple vorts still but the one to the SW will carry the energy.

[eastcoastFL]

Coming together nicely now. Hard to tell but appears to be heading wnw at the moment

[Sanibel]

This is a good point, I am wondering exactly when the north turn takes place.

The second part of this that I left off is that the center is actually more north than we think and is not apparent because of lingering NE shear...


In which case the Euro could suddenly emerge correct and not be out of the picture yet...


Perfect set up for people thinking we can relax because this has happened so many times before with majors, only this one doesn't give us any breaks like Charley and Irma...

[eastcoastFL]

Shear forecast ahead of Ian continues to be “Very Favorable” for further development

TROPICAL STORM 09L 12:00UTC 24September2022
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from NHC) :
Latitude : 14:40:50 N
Longitude : 74:21:12 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1002.5 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 890.0 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 112.5 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 2.2 m/s ( 4.3 kts)
Direction : 2.0 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF VF VF VF