ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

In fact, I can't think of one that wasn't since Michael.

Not to be that guy, but Delta weakened before both its landfalls.

I felt sure there was one, I just couldn't think of one. I felt sure someone would correct me

[tropicwatch]

Recon Descending

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC said it's a hybrid cyclone but they expect it to wrap and strengthen overnight.

It doesn't look very tropical right now.

We have had some really strong wind gusts here in Atlanta of all places. It blew 2 ficus trees (about 7 ft tall) in some pretty heavy pots over. Twice already

It’s north weighted and likely to be NW weighted as it goes inland because it’s butt-up to the trough to the west. KJAX radar

https://www.weather.gov/jax/

Water Vapor showing it up against the extremely dry, Fall air.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

—————
I don’t really know what to say about information. People even seek out misinformation these days, and there are plenty of trolls willing to provide it. Rumors (and b.s.) have always been part of the hurricane story on the ground. That isn’t going to change. Remember back to first grade when they taught you how gossip works by someone telling you something and as it gets passed along morphs into something completely different and often exaggerated. I’ve been hearing from official sources to “ignore rumors” since I was a little kid. It’s easy to get caught up in the moment, but a good rule is if it’s more than second hand, disregard it.

We called that game telephone...I do remember playing it and the end was never like the beginning. I always think of people's motives. Your local government agencies have no motive to try and mislead people. In fact many times they could make a lot more money doing something else yet they do what they do so we all can benefit. It's called service. Facebook (IMO) is a cesspool and I avoid it, and I trust none of it.

[ThunderForce]

I have some good news. An uncle and great-uncle of mine and their families have both made it through Ian safely. I have another great-uncle who's sister has posted on Facebook after the storm so she seems to be safe as well thankfully.

Unfortunately I still haven't heard anything from some other family members I have in the area including said great-uncle, but I feel a bit better now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have some good news. An uncle and great-uncle of mine and their families have both made it through Ian safely. I have another great-uncle who's sister has posted on Facebook after the storm so she seems to be safe as well thankfully.

Unfortunately I still haven't heard anything from some other family members I have in the area including said great-uncle, but I feel a bit better now.

YEA!!! Some good news! (This would be the only good thing that FB does, fyi)

[Iceresistance]

Possibly the first wide footage of Fort Myers and Sanibel after Ian.



Link: https://youtu.be/l0wGD_ewnYY

[Iceresistance]

SMFR supports 65 knots on the NW side.

[Vdogg]

It certainly doesn't look very tropical on satellite for a hurricane. Curious to see if any convection can wrap overnight.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3RFy6GFs/44f3aa4d-3b40-4e8d-8c17-14620a5bfaac.gif [/url]

NHC said it's a hybrid cyclone but they expect it to wrap and strengthen overnight.

It doesn't look very tropical right now.

We have had some really strong wind gusts here in Atlanta of all places. It blew 2 ficus trees (about 7 ft tall) in some pretty heavy pots over. Twice already

"Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Ian remains a hybrid tropical cyclone with characteristics of an
extratropical low, including a comma-pattern on satellite images
and some frontal features in the outer circulation. The cyclone
continues to have a warm core, however, and all indications are that
it will re-develop strong convection over the center overnight.
Based on Melbourne Doppler radar velocity data of persistent 70-80-
kt winds from 5-10 thousand feet, and earlier sustained winds of
about 60 kt near that band from an observation in New Smyrna Beach,
the initial wind speed is raised to 65 kt. This makes Ian a
hurricane again. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to fly through Ian this evening and will provide a
better intensity estimate."

[CrazyC83]

Recon supports about 70 kt right now.

[Kingarabian]

Recon supports about 70 kt right now.

Yeah I agree. Still has a little more time over water depending on when the east drifts end.

[Zonacane]

Breaking news: Hurricane too angry to die

[Steve]

Possibly the first wide footage of Fort Myers and Sanibel after Ian.

https://youtu.be/l0wGD_ewnYY

I was remote today and couldn’t help cracking out on effects on YouTube. I’m still doing it. Fort Myers, Iona, Punta Gorda, Sanibel, Naples, Cape Coral, Orlando…. It’s crazy. Gotta believe that Ian ends up on the Top 5 costliest storms list. The only mitigating circumstance is that there’s a lot of open water and of course swampland and rural inland communities that take up space that would otherwise eventually fill up. Populations of the hardest hit counties - Collier (Naples), Lee (Ft Myers), Charlotte (Punta Gorda) are 380,000, 755,000, 185,000 respectively. I sold a bunch of property over the years in the next in counties, and many of those are much more sparsely populated (Hendry, DeSoto, Glades and Highlands). Gonna be a high 11 figure storm, and probably insurance will become even harder to get. :/

[syfr]

It's extremely cool in NC these past days. It will be interesting to see how the remains of IAN digest that air once it starts landward. Humidity is very low too.

[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1575644152053653506




SFMR a bit higher, pushing 75 kts. Ian’s not done yet, unfortunately.

[socplay02]

Speaking of spaghetti models: I will say it drives me a bit crazy that they show the spaghetti models on TV because they virtually never explain what they are showing and very few members of the general public understand what they are seeing and which models are reliable and which and not so reliable. Just my two fifths of a a dime on the topic.

I agree 100% with this. I am always glad in Levi's videos and on his website he goes out of his way to say that you should not use those as a forecast unless you know how to read them.

Total novice here, but I think I've made some solid evac decisions living in Ft Lauderdale from 2012-2020 based on the info I've gotten from here.

I think the spaghetti plots are super helpful not because of the paths so much, but because you get really smart people in here discussing the different things the models are seeing that is causing them to predict certain things.

Some of the models might be super unlikely to happen because they rely on a key thing that needs to happen and that thing is really unlikely. However, if that unlikely key thing does happen, then that model is suddenly going to have a really good chance of happening.

I think it was Dorian that was like that. I rented a car and booked a hotel that Wednesday for Friday morning when it ended up being slightly stronger and moved north slightly earlier when it was forecasted to arrive Monday. People said I was nuts and I was the only one pretty much in my neighborhood putting up my shutters and bringing everything in the house as they were predicting it was going to be a tropical storm. We jumped in the car that night and drove up to Georgia, and it was either that morning or the next morning that it rapidly intensified and Ft Lauderdale had a cat 5 barreling down with virtually no notice. If it wasn't for that super unexpected front coming out of nowhere from the west at the last second, it would have been really bad and I remember talking to people from work on the phone and it was panic. I tried to warn everyone I talked to, showed them screen shots of the plots and the things that people said to watch out for and that each one was happening.

I think people have a hard time understanding that really unlikely things are only really unlikely when things are random. If there is a 1% chance of a going on this one random road, but if you do go on that one road there is a 50% chance you'll crash, and you suddenly find yourself on that road, even if it's a really long road, it stops being a 1% chance and is a 50% chance. I think it's really hard for people to recalibrate that. Dr's do that when they misdiagnose things because they're so rare...yeah they're rare until someone comes in presenting with this group of symptoms...having those symptoms is rare, having the disease when having those symptoms is not...

Excuse my rambling, I used to live in Ft Lauderdale, but I live in Raleigh now and a bit nevrous for tomorrow and need to go out and bring some things inside my garage just in case tonight and I'm putting it off. I'm keeping my eye on that sharp left turn, and how the storm keeps trending east and stronger with an expanded wind field and the potential for the worst rains being forecast really not all that far west of us.

If you draw a Florida Peninsula and put Raleigh somewhere like the Tampa area in that hypothetical and the storm a bit past Cuba, kinda feels like a very similar angle. A slight east track now can make a huuuge difference, especially if it's stronger and has that big of a wind/rain field. I am envisioning a worst case (which I have no idea if it's possible, but looks like it based on where we are on the edge of the cone) coming in slightly east of Raleigh with the north west quad hitting us, stalling and then starting that sharp left turn and just having the entire front of the storm rake across us (I am not even a tiny bit of an expert, this is just pure my somewhat reasonable worst case speculation).

I mean that's going to happen somewhere I would think where it stalls and somewhere gets the entire front of the storm strafing them. This potential trend east has me nervous. Not saying I think it will happen, again I'm a novice and am still waiting for more information, just perhaps a bit of ptsd left over from evacuating from Irma...

[Steve]

It's extremely cool in NC these past days. It will be interesting to see how the remains of IAN digest that air once it starts landward. Humidity is very low too.

It’s always cool in North Carolina IMHO. It’s quickly becoming my favorite place to go. <- but I know what you meant. Rainfall looked possibly underdone in some areas per 12z QPF, but maybe mid single inches ends up right?
————
I was just watching the Ian intro on All In and they mentioned the 5 most costliest storms. Even though I had to deal with it, I had no idea Ida is the 5th costliest now at $72B. I assume Ian will be up there in that range when all is said and done. Seems like we in the US have had a lot of costly climate events in the last 7-10 years with Harvey, Maria, Irma, Ida, 2016 floods on and on. I’m not looking to place blame or push any agenda. But things have been kind of historic lately and different than what any of us have ever seen before. Maybe there were eras in the 30’s or 40’s where hits might have been bigger deals with more population. That’s speculation though.

Ian winding up a little. I wonder if it’s got a backside coming in out the SE?

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[NC George]

It's extremely cool in NC these past days. It will be interesting to see how the remains of IAN digest that air once it starts landward. Humidity is very low too.

Sitting right on the boundary between the 2 masses of air here in Beaufort County, NC; and have been since before Ian hit Florida. Today has been kinda strange, earlier today it was cooler, but I went 10 miles east to help a friend haul out his boat (not related, his dock is being replaced) and it was breezy and spitting rain there this afternoon. Now even with nightfall the temp is holding steady and the humidity is normal for the area (although I live very near the sound, so it's always humid here), no rain here. Wind is raising the water level here, some of the docks at the marina were underwater, they weren't on Tuesday when we brought the boat there.

[dspguy]

If people are looking for a reason not to evacuate they will find one. Not sure we can fix that problem

Back in 2018(?) there was some hurricane bearing down on the Myrtle Beach area. I have an elderly relative that lives around the border of NC/SC less than a mile from the ocean. I was trying to explain that by the time he can make the call to evacuate, he can't evacuate. It would be too late. He'd find any reason to not evacuate. "Look, the cone shift a little east/west, I'll be ok." I tried to explain that by the time they actually have an idea where the NE quadrant will land, he won't have time to get out. Considering he lives in a patio home only a few feet above sea level, he'd be that guy trapped in his attic with flood waters rising.

By a miracle, I got him to evacuate. And since when he came back he only had two large pines down in his yard and only minor water damage, apparently I was "wrong" and he should have stayed.

When the next one comes, they'll be no getting him out of there.

It really is a matter of people interpret it the way they want.

[LARanger]

Seems like we in the US have had a lot of costly climate events in the last 7-10 years with Harvey, Maria, Irma, Ida, 2016 floods on and on. I’m not looking to place blame or push any agenda. But things have been kind of historic lately and different than what any of us have ever seen before. Maybe there were eras in the 30’s or 40’s where hits might have been bigger deals with more population. That’s speculation though.

"Costliest" as a measure includes a variety of things as hidden and not-so-hidden variables, not all of which mean anything from a meteorological perspective.

Corollary: There could've been a Gulf (and Atlantic) chock full of Cat-5 hurricanes in 1491 that lined up single-file to whack Florida . . . we wouldn't know much about it.

[tropicwatch]

984.8 extrapolated not to center yet. Pressure dropping.