ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1801 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:36 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think we could see extreme rapid intensification shortly. With a closed or near closed eyewall, as well as it being a pinhole, we might see something like Wilma or Delta in terms of strengthening.

What you will probably see is an EWRC sooner rather than later. Recon said 18 miles...that's small but hardly remarkable
Wilma...fyi was 8 at it's smallest.

Wilma’s was 2 nm wide if I remember correctly
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1802 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:36 pm

Image

Confirms recon and microwave. Ian is about to go ham overnight.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1803 Postby Recurve » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:37 pm

That last Vortex message puts the center farther north and east than I expected, at least to my eye. But I guess it's on track to make it to almost 85 W before turning NNE.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1804 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:37 pm

Image

Not the place you want see strengthening TC at....
Last edited by Keldeo1997 on Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1805 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
AJC3 wrote:C18 isn't a pinhole eye, gang.


A pinhole eye must have a circular diameter of less than 10 miles. This is not a pinhole eye like you mentioned, but a tiny one indeed.


20-40 is the average eye size.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1806 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:41 pm

Looking back at the IR loop through the afternoon, I'm inclined to think the messy IR presentation a few hours ago was just Ian trying to shake off excess convection in the outer bands so that it can focus on the center:
Image
Organization had probably already started back then, when everyone was downcasting.

This is arguably even clearer on visible/shortwave IR:
Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1807 Postby MGC » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:44 pm

Ian's structure is vastly improved since earlier today. If this trend continues, expect steady intensification to land interaction with Cuba. Ian should make hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning. It takes a while for the winds to catch up with the pressure falls......MGC
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1808 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:46 pm

islandgirl45 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:The new NHC track puts the eye of Ian about 50 miles to my west off the Pinellas coast at 28.3/84.0, albeit weakening to a Cat 2 (85 kt)


That point is 75 miles offshore. Consensus is about 30 miles offshore. NHC will be adjusting closer to you tonight. Be prepared for hurricane conditions Thursday.

If the NHC adjusts the 11pm track to roughly the location of where the TVCN is now, and given the NHC's current intensity forecast for Ian, would you generally expect coastal Volusia County (Daytona Beach and south) to experience tropical storm winds? Or something less?


The center would probably have to move inland near Tampa or on the peninsula to the west for you to have a shot at brief 35-40 mph sustained winds on the east coast.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1809 Postby wx98 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:47 pm

FL winds already showing big improvement on this pass.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1810 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:50 pm

shah83 wrote:Too me, the big and consequential aspect of finding the pressure so much lower than expected, is that this system may well get the chance to successfully conclude an EWC and get bigger and intensify further, increasing the chances of a hard cat-3+ landfall.


I don't follow your logic. To have an ERC, a hurricane must first have an "E" and be a relatively strong hurricane to begin with. That pressure was not unexpected at all. Oh, and an 18nm wide eye is normal. OK, that's it, started at 4am today and I'm getting up at 4am tomorrow to assist the night shift with 12Z West Pac advisories.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1811 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:51 pm



Wow, I was not expecting the pressure to be that low. This storm and it’s track is full of surprises. Might be one of those tiny but tough storms.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1812 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:
islandgirl45 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
That point is 75 miles offshore. Consensus is about 30 miles offshore. NHC will be adjusting closer to you tonight. Be prepared for hurricane conditions Thursday.

If the NHC adjusts the 11pm track to roughly the location of where the TVCN is now, and given the NHC's current intensity forecast for Ian, would you generally expect coastal Volusia County (Daytona Beach and south) to experience tropical storm winds? Or something less?


The center would probably have to move inland near Tampa or on the peninsula to the west for you to have a shot at brief 35-40 mph sustained winds on the east coast.


Is that because it’s going to be a rather small storm? I’ve had brief sustained TS winds on the east coast of FL with hurricanes well to my south or west before.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1813 Postby sunnyday » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:56 pm

I keep hearing that Florida is in for flooding rain. The SE coast of Fl isn’t even in the cone. Maybe that fact should be mentioned.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1814 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:57 pm

Ummm, the next extrapolated pass has 995.1 mb extrapolated at its lowest. :roll:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1815 Postby wx98 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:57 pm

Whoops. Pressure back up?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1816 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:57 pm

Extrap pressure's up 7mb
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1817 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:57 pm

Ignore this
Last edited by Kazmit on Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1818 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:58 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Ummm, the next extrapolated pass has 995.1 mb extrapolated at its lowest. :roll:

Perhaps the previous was a mesovort.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1819 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 80.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1820 Postby jfk08c » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:58 pm

sunnyday wrote:I keep hearing that Florida is in for flooding rain. The SE coast of Fl isn’t even in the cone. Maybe that fact should be mentioned.


The cone is the area where the center could possibly go. It is not an indicator of any sorts of conditions in your area. They would need a pretty large cone to encompass all areas that would have some sort of effect
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