ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

I think they missed the center. The winds and pressure are too high for where they marked the wind shift.

[CronkPSU]

I keep hearing that Florida is in for flooding rain. The SE coast of Fl isn’t even in the cone. Maybe that fact should be mentioned.

being in or out of the cone has nothing to do with storm impact...

[wx98]

I think they missed the center. The winds and pressure are too high for where they marked the wind shift.

I was thinking something like this

[Hammy]

Convection warming and eyewall rain looks weaker over the last few frames so still dealing with dry air.

[skillz305]

Not much of a cone shift at 8pm! 11pm will be INTERESTING!

[Nimbus]

I think they missed the center. The winds and pressure are too high for where they marked the wind shift.

Wind barbs are perpendicular as he flew into the western eyewall square.
Looks like a tight circulation still moving roughly WNW.

[BobHarlem]

Not much of a cone shift at 8pm! 11pm will be INTERESTING!

Just a note, they don't update the cone at 8 and 2pm advisories, just at 5 and 11. That said it's pretty far north so the track graphic looks odd since they only update the initial position.

[MarioProtVI]

Apparently NOAA3 aircraft have a low FL bias in “weak” storms like Ian so they tend to lean more towards SFMR, and given the surface improvements Ian has done today and the fact the first pass had a 55 kt SFMR, they went with the data more likely to represent the intensity.

[hohnywx]

Not much of a cone shift at 8pm! 11pm will be INTERESTING!

There is no change in the forecast track at 8 or 2 AM/PM. Only at 5 and 11 AM/PM

[Jr0d]

being in or out of the cone has nothing to do with storm impact...

This is more if an off season discussion, but perhaps the NHC should consider adding wind speed colors outside the cone as the lay person will often think they are safe when they are outside the cone within 72 hours.

[wx98]

Not much of a cone shift at 8pm! 11pm will be INTERESTING!

They don't move the cone on intermediate advisories.

[psyclone]

I keep hearing that Florida is in for flooding rain. The SE coast of Fl isn’t even in the cone. Maybe that fact should be mentioned.

The entire peninsula is broad brushed with 5-10" in the latest WPC estimate. They have been showing heavy rain for days. If you're in Florida east of the track you are getting hosed...even if you're too far east for sustained ts winds.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think they missed the center. The winds and pressure are too high for where they marked the wind shift.

I was thinking something like this

Same, it looks to me like they were just a little south of the center. Hard to believe a miss by that small would account for a 7mb difference between passes though. We’ll see what future passes show.

[otowntiger]

Convection warming and eyewall rain looks weaker over the last few frames so still dealing with dry air.

I don’t think it’ll be a hurricane by morning.

[Hurricaneman]

Convection warming and eyewall rain looks weaker over the last few frames so still dealing with dry air.

I don’t think it’ll be a hurricane by morning.

There’s a major convective burst over the center, might be premature

[MarioProtVI]

Convection warming and eyewall rain looks weaker over the last few frames so still dealing with dry air.

As soon as you said this another -80C pixel showed up at the N end of the burst

[Blown Away]

Not much of a cone shift at 8pm! 11pm will be INTERESTING!

They don't move the cone on intermediate advisories.

See that tail to the right at the track beginning, that likely means Ian has moved east of the track and an east adjustment coming at next advisory.

[wx98]

Not much of a cone shift at 8pm! 11pm will be INTERESTING!

They don't move the cone on intermediate advisories.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/jdYK1vn4/10912550-357-E-4-F6-A-B6-DA-33-CA2-F80-A8-C6.jpg [/url]

See that tail to the right at the track beginning, that likely means Ian has moved east of the track and an east adjustment coming at next advisory.

Yes, and? That doesn't change the fact that they don't move the cone on intermediate advisories.

[StPeteMike]

The storm is going to pulse for the next few hours before taking off. Don’t take a change as evidence the storm is weakening by any chance.

[aspen]

Convection warming and eyewall rain looks weaker over the last few frames so still dealing with dry air.

I don’t think it’ll be a hurricane by morning.

First it was “weren’t not getting a hurricane”, then it was “we’re seeing RI”, now we’re back to “no hurricane”. We’re flip-flopping more than the models have been.