ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Subtrop » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:51 am

AL, 98, 2022092012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 530W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, al712022 to al982022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#2 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:53 am

I think this might become the longest thread of the season. We'll see. Here's IR (data is slightly delayed):

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#3 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:55 am

That was quick. Very active pattern right now. Impressive. This one has potential somewhere in the western basin for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#4 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:16 am

I'm expecting 98L (soon Hermine\Ian) to be the strongest storm of the season. It will have winds of 155 kt and pressure sub-915 mbar. it will also hit a region close to where Michael '18 made landfall.
:grrr: :craz:
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#5 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:19 am

Wow. This one is already very convectively active. Probably some of the best convection I've seen in the MDR this season. I doubted the GFS runs of developing this quickly, but if this kind of convection continues, it might be right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#6 Postby Pelicane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:21 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#7 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:23 am

The 700-925mb vorticity is stacked nicely.
700mb Vorticity
Image
850mb Vorticity
Image
925mb Vorticity
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#8 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:23 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#9 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:25 am

I'm not a pro (we don't have any hurricanes in The Netherlands :wink:), but I feel like this one has a good chance of getting pretty far west. It could very well be that right before 98L makes a turn to the north and later northwest, there will be a ridge going from the Central-US to the east/southeast. The trough in the beginning of next week over the (north)eastern-US is probably too far NE to "pull" 98L. The following rigde would steer 98L pretty far west, possibly into the GOM. Consequently also not too much windshear, which would make it a (very) favourable environment. I surely wouldn't rule out a Major Hurriance.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#10 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:26 am

This was a few hours before from BenNollWeather

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1572181526267076608


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#11 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:35 am

If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:38 am

aspen wrote:If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.


I smell a modeled HWRF Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean on the 12z run. :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby Beef Stew » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:46 am

Here comes a long thread I fear. 98L is already looking impressive ahead of schedule- vorticity is stacking well and convection is looking quite robust. We’ll have to wait a few days before the models really get a good track on it- after all, the safest place usually seems to be where the models have a storm in a weeks’s time. Not overtly concerned yet for WFL, but certainly keeping an eye out.
Last edited by Beef Stew on Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#14 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:46 am

MississippiWx wrote:
aspen wrote:If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.


I smell a modeled HWRF Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean on the 12z run. :ggreen:


No doubt, the HWRF with these predicted favorable conditions will go nuclear. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#15 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:50 am

Blown Away wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
aspen wrote:If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.


I smell a modeled HWRF Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean on the 12z run. :ggreen:


No doubt, the HWRF with these predicted favorable conditions will go nuclear. :D


The HWRF is very good in these setups as far as intensity forecasting goes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:00 am

The convection is organizing and could form a broad low later today or tomorrow if current trends continue
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:22 am

This already has an Upper-level Anticyclone.
Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Invest-98L.gif

(Trying to get the upper-level winds here, but the map bugged out somewhat)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#18 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:22 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:24 am

Iceresistance wrote:This already has an Upper-level Anticyclone.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Invest-98L.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Invest-98L.gif

(Trying to get the upper-level winds here, but the map bugged out somewhat)


Finally got it. It already has southern outflow.

Image
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Upper-level-winds-over-98L.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#20 Postby caneseddy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:26 am

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