ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hurricane Mike
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#361 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:24 pm

I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#362 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:31 pm

8 PM TWO:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
low pressure system located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
about 150 miles east-northeast of Curacao. The upper-level wind
environment over the low is expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the central Caribbean Sea. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely to affect northwestern Venezuela, the ABC island
chain, and northeastern Colombia through Friday. Interests in
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#363 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:32 pm

Up to 90-90
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#364 Postby Coolcruiseman » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:32 pm

Long time follower from afar. Lots of terrific insights gleaned. Having relocated this summer to the Florida Space Coast from Wisconsin I'm curious with the latest model runs showing potential landfalls being anywhere from north of Tampa to the Keys & Miami, what are the potential impacts here in Melbourne?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#365 Postby cane5 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:33 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:I think the people saying it will miss the CONUS are (stop trolling), I dont see how the trough will pick it up and turn it that sharply at this point. That would be a very sharp turn sending it almost due east from western Cuba.


Just curious Wilma turned on a dime and quickly what caused that ?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#366 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:35 pm

cane5 wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:I think the people saying it will miss the CONUS are (stop trolling), I dont see how the trough will pick it up and turn it that sharply at this point. That would be a very sharp turn sending it almost due east from western Cuba.


Just curious Wilma turned on a dime and quickly what caused that ?


Strong cold front came down and swept it quickly to the Northeast. I remember still experiencing tropical storm force winds and rain and the temperature had dropped into the 50's.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#367 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:37 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
cane5 wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:I think the people saying it will miss the CONUS are (stop trolling), I dont see how the trough will pick it up and turn it that sharply at this point. That would be a very sharp turn sending it almost due east from western Cuba.


Just curious Wilma turned on a dime and quickly what caused that ?


Strong cold front came down and swept it quickly to the Northeast. I remember still experiencing tropical storm force winds and rain and the temperature had dropped into the 50's.
We didnt need AC after wilma passed, very cool air behind the front.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#368 Postby cane5 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:37 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:I think the people saying it will miss the CONUS are (stop trolling), I dont see how the trough will pick it up and turn it that sharply at this point. That would be a very sharp turn sending it almost due east from western Cuba.

To be fair, I don't think anybody in Florida wants to deal with what this storm unfortunately might become, but I do agree that banking on it missing the CONUS entirely is probably not the greatest idea.



I get that, but you need to be realistic. This is a weather forum, we want to focus on realistic impacts, it woul dbe different if that were a legit option. But I have seen no model tracks south of florida.

I dont believe (stop trolling) brings anything other than issues. Its also part of life living in florida, if that is a problem there are many places to live where you don't get hurricanes.


I completely agree (stop trolling) is for amateurs and not advised on a public forum that could save lives.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#369 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:41 pm

Went to walmart earlier today. Nobody panicking yet. I'm sure that'll change in the next couple days
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#370 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:41 pm

Coolcruiseman wrote:Long time follower from afar. Lots of terrific insights gleaned. Having relocated this summer to the Florida Space Coast from Wisconsin I'm curious with the latest model runs showing potential landfalls being anywhere from north of Tampa to the Keys & Miami, what are the potential impacts here in Melbourne?


Welcome. As for your question...impacts are unknowable but could be substantial. even a storm skirting up the west coast could deliver lots of heavy weather on the east coast as these systems are often convectively active well to the east...as Fiona just illustrated in the northeast Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#371 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:44 pm

TheHurricaneGod wrote:Went to walmart earlier today. Nobody panicking yet. I'm sure that'll change in the next couple days


ME TOO. Just got back. Filled all the holes. The glory of being 90% ready all the time! Now this can skip on out to the east.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#372 Postby jaybizniss » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:59 pm

toad strangler wrote:
TheHurricaneGod wrote:Went to walmart earlier today. Nobody panicking yet. I'm sure that'll change in the next couple days


ME TOO. Just got back. Filled all the holes. The glory of being 90% ready all the time! Now this can skip on out to the east.


Dont want to hijack the thread, but Tampa here. Just got back from a costco run. No panic yet but by tomorrow it will be here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#373 Postby IsabelaWeather » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:59 pm

cane5 wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:I think the people saying it will miss the CONUS are (stop trolling), I dont see how the trough will pick it up and turn it that sharply at this point. That would be a very sharp turn sending it almost due east from western Cuba.


Just curious Wilma turned on a dime and quickly what caused that ?



Wilma didn't miss FL to the south either.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#374 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:08 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#375 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:13 pm

toad strangler wrote:
TheHurricaneGod wrote:Went to walmart earlier today. Nobody panicking yet. I'm sure that'll change in the next couple days


ME TOO. Just got back. Filled all the holes. The glory of being 90% ready all the time! Now this can skip on out to the east.


Haven’t had any serious storms since I bought a new generator 3 years ago. If I go out and get gas and water we should be safe. Plus Florida goes through the motions first, it’s nothing yet, it’s just a tropical storm, it’s just a cat 1 etc. while it’s in its infancy right now in the Caribbean it’s a good time to shop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#376 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:14 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:
cane5 wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:I think the people saying it will miss the CONUS are (stop trolling), I dont see how the trough will pick it up and turn it that sharply at this point. That would be a very sharp turn sending it almost due east from western Cuba.


Just curious Wilma turned on a dime and quickly what caused that ?



Wilma didn't miss FL to the south either.


Did Wilma turn on a dime? I know she was moving fast but I thought it was always forecast to hit S. Fl

Now Charlie turned on a dime for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#377 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:16 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#378 Postby TallyTracker » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:19 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
cane5 wrote:
Just curious Wilma turned on a dime and quickly what caused that ?



Wilma didn't miss FL to the south either.


Did Wilma turn on a dime? I know she was moving fast but I thought it was always forecast to hit S. Fl

Now Charlie turned on a dime for sure.


Wilma stalled out over Cancun and Cozumel for 36 hours before a very strong front grabbed it a shot the hurricane NE rapidly. This trough won’t be that strong. Wilma was also 3 weeks later in the year. I expect a more gradual turn like Charley or Ivan.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#379 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:23 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#380 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:24 pm

Finally starting to improve now. Should really start picking up tomorrow.
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