ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#401 Postby otowntiger » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Hurricane Mike wrote:I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.


I think the opposite. The farther east it goes, it's because it's encountering strong westerly winds aloft (shear). In addition, it would cut across some tall mountains in Cuba. Might peak east of Florida in that case.
what is your prediction for the intensity at landfall on the FL west coast? It appears the guidance is steadily dropping. Is it possible it is only a TS by the time the shear in the gulf is done with it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#402 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:53 pm

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#403 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:53 pm

TD?

AL, 98, 2022092300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 672W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#404 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:54 pm

Looks like it’s putting the dry air and sheer behind it

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#405 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:56 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Should be TD ..


Engines ready!

https://i.postimg.cc/c1BQ33Hf/8-F4-E0364-2794-4-A8-F-B069-2-B76-B10-A8-FBD.gif


I am starting to think the GFS developing the south end of the wave is right as opposed to the Euro trying to spin up the top. It looks like the spin is already started on the south end


You definitely shouldn't buy into the eastern solutions. Euro very likely over doing the weakness left behind from Fiona then add in the right bias (typically from exaggerating troughs). You should find the middle ground here. Also definitely wait until models have more data.

Also... I guess that one transitory shower over a weak swirl wasn't meaningless...
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#406 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:57 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#407 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:58 pm

Caribbean wide view


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#408 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:58 pm

skyline385 wrote:TD?

AL, 98, 2022092300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 672W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

Doesn't LO mean a low instead of a TC?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#409 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:59 pm

Teban54 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:TD?

AL, 98, 2022092300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 672W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

Doesn't LO mean a low instead of a TC?


yea i accidently glanced over the invest part as well. No change it looks like...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#410 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:59 pm

SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#411 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:02 pm

WTNT21 KNGU 222100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (98L) REISSUED//
REF/A/FLTWEACEN NORFOLK VA/212100Z SEP 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(WTNT21 KNGU 212100)//
RMKS/1.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 66.2W TO 14.0N 70.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 66.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3.THIS MESSAGE SUPERSEDES REF A. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED,
SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO
WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 232100Z.//


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#412 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:05 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg


Of course what helps the STDs is the fact that it's untapped due to such low tropical activity in the carib this season...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#413 Postby typhoonty » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:06 pm

When forecasting formative tropical cyclones facing moderate to heavy shear vectors, I have been well served in expecting a center reformation or two to occur downshear as the vortex tries to align itself with the deepest convection. You can sort of see this happening on the 18Z HWRF, multiple center reformations southwest as 98L gets vertically stacked. This will make it difficult, though not impossible, to squeeze east of the Florida Peninsula.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#414 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:06 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2022092300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 672W, 30, 1006, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#415 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:08 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg


Of course what helps the STDs is the fact that it's untapped due to such low tropical activity in the carib this season...


The OHC is also crazy high too, we could have an absolute beast with this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#416 Postby hipshot » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:10 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg


Again, I don't understand why I'm seeing replicated pages on this board from days ago.
I open a new page and it is the same posts with later post numbers from pages ago. Is there
something wrong with my Google browser or is something goofy going on with this web site?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#417 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:10 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg


Of course what helps the STDs is the fact that it's untapped due to such low tropical activity in the carib this season...

.
I hadn’t considered that. Pretty fresh pools for now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#418 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:11 pm

hipshot wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg


Again, I don't understand why I'm seeing replicated pages on this board from days ago.
I open a new page and it is the same posts with later post numbers from pages ago. Is there
something wrong with my Google browser or is something goofy going on with this web site?


I just posted that 10 mins ago.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#419 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:11 pm

hipshot wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:SST’s looking pretty ripe along the predicted path


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg


Again, I don't understand why I'm seeing replicated pages on this board from days ago.
I open a new page and it is the same posts with later post numbers from pages ago. Is there
something wrong with my Google browser or is something goofy going on with this web site?


Mods/admins cleaning up this forum due to useless posts.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#420 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:


I am starting to think the GFS developing the south end of the wave is right as opposed to the Euro trying to spin up the top. It looks like the spin is already started on the south end


You definitely shouldn't buy into the eastern solutions. Euro very likely over doing the weakness left behind from Fiona then add in the right bias (typically from exaggerating troughs). You should find the middle ground here. Also definitely wait until models have more data.

Also... I guess that one transitory shower over a weak swirl wasn't meaningless...


The run right now is showing a very strong trough. Does that seem overblown? I don’t remember seeing it before. I wonder how much these shift once they classify it. It seems it should be a TD by morning now unless convection dies off.
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