ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#441 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:21 pm

Would the ABC Islands need a Tropical Storm Warning now? If so, they should pull the trigger on PTC 9 or TD 9.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#442 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:23 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#443 Postby REDHurricane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Would the ABC Islands need a Tropical Storm Warning now? If so, they should pull the trigger on PTC 9 or TD 9.


Yep looks like it, just based on the previous PTCs this season I'm thinking they will definitely do it within the next few hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#444 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:33 pm

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I know some people on here like their Hebert box's :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#445 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:34 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#446 Postby LARanger » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:51 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:I know some people on here like their Hebert box's :cheesy:


New one on me, and I'm iffy on whether it's "a thing", but now I want to see something similar for Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#447 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:54 pm

Anyone know when the next ASCAT pass is? The last one looked pretty close to being closed off.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#448 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:03 pm

Should have atleast been a TD especially with the the Radar loop and the ASCAT pass from earlier

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#449 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:07 pm

All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#450 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:08 pm

I’m in agreement that this is (or at least is imminently becoming) a TD. Thought we might see the NHC pull the trigger at 11 PM, but I guess we’ll have to wait a few hours. Best-track may end up reflecting this later on when revisions are made.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#451 Postby Jr0d » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:09 pm

I didnt think it would be classified until Saturday but now am fairly certain this will at least be a TD tomorrow (Friday). With what appears to be a closed low, doubt PTC advisories will be needed. If this trend continues we might have a TD at 5am.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#452 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#453 Postby Poonwalker » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:11 pm

I think we will be skipping the TD status after the recon mission enters this. Fiona is picking up speed and exiting, shear should lessen, and that convection popping will only improve with Dmax coming. I reckon we will have a TS early morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#454 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:12 pm

Jr0d wrote:I didnt think it would be classified until Saturday but now am fairly certain this will at least be a TD tomorrow (Friday). With what appears to be a closed low, doubt PTC advisories will be needed. If this trend continues we might have a TD at 5am.


I bet 57 will still say sunday/monday just because.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#455 Postby stormhunter7 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:13 pm

I think all we are missing is a ground obs report or ship report? Radar velocity data might make this a TD as it passes by the Island. If the shear keeps up for next two days... This may be what keeps the system a little further south of potential track. Deep convection fires on SW side... Pulls the surface CoC to the SW. If the convection is this tall/cold now. Hang on to your hat, cus it's gonna be really interesting come Sunday/Monday... Or when it reaches the western Caribbean, IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#456 Postby Craters » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:22 pm

LARanger wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:I know some people on here like their Hebert box's :cheesy:


New one on me, and I'm iffy on whether it's "a thing", but now I want to see something similar for Louisiana.


Ask and you shall receive, LARanger:

Image

(I think the US boundaries are a little bit off...)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#457 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....


And just as you said that, 0Z ICON decided to be west of previous runs :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#458 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:27 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....


And just as you said that, 0Z ICON decided to be west of previous runs :lol:

And significantly stronger too (966 mb at landfall). That's probably a result of the W track giving it more time to intensify.
Image
Edit: Can a mod move this to the models thread? I didn't realize this is in the discussion thread.
Last edited by Teban54 on Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#459 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:28 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....


And just as you said that, 0Z ICON decided to be west of previous runs :lol:


well I mean.. not that ICON is particularly reliable amongst the rest.. but earlier I said not to buy stock in the eastern solutions.. :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#460 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:41 pm

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