ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[msbee]

Good morning
Wishing all of you in Florida safe passage of Ian. We in the islands know what you are about to go through and I hope everyone has taken the utmost in safety precautions.
Please be safe and take care of yourselves and watch out for your neighbors.
You will get through this.
Barbara in St Maarten

[La Sirena]

I have a feeling this may be bad....

Definitely. I have friends that remained in Punta Gorda and Fort Meyers. Just terrifying. I was supposed to be heading to Tybee tonight but have changed my mind. Not sure what will happen with the track and they’re anticipating a 10 foot surge/high tide combo on Friday.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wouldn't be surprised if we're done with eyewall intercepts for now. That AF301 mission looked really rough. Considering the visible/IR/Radar presentation continues to improve, it may intensify further.

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

NHC upgrades peak storm surge height to 12-18 feet.

[weeniepatrol]

. . .

[GCANE]

Could see some tornadoes in the target area before actual landfall.

[Texashawk]

I have never heard of a storm ‘too strong’ for recon to enter. Is that a thing? Serious question. If so, that is really telling.

[Category5Kaiju]

What makes this terrifying in particular is how it is pretty much going to be the most powerful Florida-landfalling hurricane since...Andrew.

[Blown Away]

Eye clearing out.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/JordanSteele/status/1575103067946565633

[Tireman4]

I have a feeling this may be bad....

Definitely. I have friends that remained in Punta Gorda and Fort Meyers. Just terrifying. I was supposed to be heading to Tybee tonight but have changed my mind. Not sure what will happen with the track and they’re anticipating a 10 foot surge/high tide combo on Friday.

I have in laws in Fort Lauderdale. I was going to send a text to check on them. StormingB is a friend to many of us here. I have checked in on him. He is good.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I have never heard of a storm ‘too strong’ for recon to enter. Is that a thing? Serious question. If so, that is really telling.

Would be pretty wild if so. I mean these guys flew into Patricia at it's peak. I wouldn't think Ian is too strong.

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[dukeblue219]

I have never heard of a storm ‘too strong’ for recon to enter. Is that a thing? Serious question. If so, that is really telling.

Not really. They flew recon into Michael, Wilma, Patricia, Dorian, all the big ones.

Individual flights can have problems, or encounter lightning and turbulence, but the sustained winds alone don't stop the recon. There's a temptation for us to see tracks like the AF just flew and assume they were in a desperate struggle to escape when it's entirely plausible they are just the last recon for a while and wanted to sample the eyewall in as many places as possible.

Edit to add: I don't know anything about this specific flight, and certainly not trivializing the dangers. But, this is what they do, and they're very good at it.

[d3v123]

Is this still expected to go east into Englewood area? I don’t wish this on anyone, but just mentally preparing for the absolute worst here in manatee county if things have changed

[chris_fit]

I'm up in Parrish. Staying at my home.

Went to bed thinking this will be a WEAKENING Hurricane going good ways SOUTH of me.

Woke up to an almost Cat5 wobbling to the North.

It's getting little scary here, and it's just getting started. Ughh.

[Buck]

What makes this terrifying in particular is how it is pretty much going to be the most powerful Florida-landfalling hurricane since...Andrew.

Michael

[Category6]

Any idea when metro SE is suppose to expect TS winds now? This thing stalled a little earlier than forecast.

Not sure if there ever will be TS winds here. Ian definitely moved more north than NE overnight. The center is about 140 miles away or so it will be very close.

We might get a TS gust here and there, but sustained hasn't been anything more than 20. Very little precipitation as well. Ian's SE side is dry, while the NW side is extremely wet. Unusual

[jlauderdal]

I have a feeling this may be bad....

Definitely. I have friends that remained in Punta Gorda and Fort Meyers. Just terrifying. I was supposed to be heading to Tybee tonight but have changed my mind. Not sure what will happen with the track and they’re anticipating a 10 foot surge/high tide combo on Friday.

I have in laws in Fort Lauderdale. I was going to send a text to check on them. StormingB is a friend to many of us here. I have checked in on him. He is good.

40-60 gusts in Fort Laud last night, power outage Lauderdale by the sea, very quiet now in the dry slot. IF we can get some sun later, might help to generate storms, wouldnt take much surface heating in the setup.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I have never heard of a storm ‘too strong’ for recon to enter. Is that a thing? Serious question. If so, that is really telling.

Not really. They flew recon into Michael, Wilma, Patricia, Dorian, all the big ones.
Individual flights can have problems, or encounter lightning and turbulence, but the sustained winds alone don't stop the recon.

That Wilma flight got real hairy if I am remembering correctly. Like almost disastrous.

Back to Ian though. Eye is clearing and still appears to be strengthening. What a monster.

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