ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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MBryant
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4601 Postby MBryant » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:35 am

TallyTracker wrote:
TheDreamTraveler wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:I'm honestly flabbergasted by how many Cat 4+ storms in the Gulf have made landfall in the CONUS since 2017. Ever since then, with the exception of 2019, every year has had one of these kinds of storms, and Ian looks to continue this deadly pattern. Unlike years before then, Cat 4+ GoM storms aren't weakening before landfall, they're literally strengthening up until then. Not sure what is causing this pattern, whether it is a property of the gulf itself that has changed or if something in the Atlantic atmospheric state is causing it, but I can bet you that unless something drastic happens, it's likely that 2023, 2024, and so forth will feature at least one of these kinds of systems in their respective seasons.

It's only a matter of time before those maps depicting Harvey, Michael, Laura, Ida, and (now) Ian are going to become totally unreadable.


We went from having 0 category 3+ major hurricane landfalls in the US from 2006-2016 to so many I've lost count at this point between 2017-2022


Historically, there seems to be years with many major hurricane strikes and then years of quiet. It’s seems we are back in the busy stretch as far as landfalls are concerned. Not sure if it’s random or if a specific cyclical weather pattern is to blame. My guess is a combination of both but that’s exactly what it is, a guess.


I'm sure somebody has studied the correlation of Hurricane frequency and strength with sun spot activity and it's 22 year cycle I think.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4602 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:35 am

Iceresistance wrote:Did I hear correctly that Ian nearly took out the recon plane?


They got wicked turbulence and I'm sure they're fine BUT there's been no transmitted data for FORTY MINUTES

NOT THE BEST TIME!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4603 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:35 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4604 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:36 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Did I hear correctly that Ian nearly took out the recon plane?


They got wicked turbulence and I'm sure they're fine BUT there's been no transmitted data for FORTY MINUTES

NOT THE BEST TIME!


The turbulence must have done a number on the transmitter.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4605 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:36 am

Significant radar attenuation from Tampa, back to the Key West radar.

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4606 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:36 am

Iceresistance wrote:Did I hear correctly that Ian nearly took out the recon plane?

God no. I hope not. I saw it had lost altitude for a minute but nothing crazy like that...I hope.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4607 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:37 am

Makes me sick seeing Sanibel get hit like this.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4608 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:38 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4609 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:38 am

Recon is back, they survived. Near the western side of Ian now:

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4610 Postby Rail Dawg » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:38 am

For those that are staying they are in for a very scary next 36 hours.

I was in a parking lot garage in Panama City for Michael. 185mph gusts.

Video does not capture the screaming power of the wind. Forget the surge which is deadly in its own right. The wind at 185 is absolutely incredible. Being in an open parking garage you can stand 10 feet from the wind and watch objects sail past the building completely horizontal.

The Fists of God will be seen and heard in the inner eyeball.

Leave now if you can. It’s not too late. Get out before the surge.

Man I remember for those major hurricanes the moments where I committed to my position and several times caught the eye. But holy cow it is a commitment. People do not understand the power of a Cat 5. Ian is going to cause a horrific amount of damage.

People think they are invincible. I have seen way too many dead people after a hurricane. I know that many died within a mile of where I made my stand.

I retired from chasing/helping just after Cat 5 Michael. My goal had always been to catch a Cat 5 eye passage.

To the new chasers looking for likes on You Tube: Don’t go into the death zone with that attitude. Chasing a Cat 5 with no previous experience is a death warrant.

Good luck to all in the path of Ian.

Chuck
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4611 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:39 am

kevin wrote:Recon is back, they survived. Near the western side of Ian now:

https://i.imgur.com/t8HMo3G.png


They're done with the mission, can't blame them after that.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4612 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:40 am

They should just call Ian a CAT 5 by now
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4613 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:40 am

Visible of Ian right now:

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4614 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:41 am

This just keeps getting better and better defined. The eye is clearing and the storm is a lot more symmetrical than a few hours ago, when it still had overshooting cloud tops. Never would I have thought we'd potentially get a landfalling Cat 5 out of Ian, but I was worried about the potential for a Michael-like RI until landfall...and my worries were valid.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4615 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:41 am

RevanTheJedi96 wrote:They should just call Ian a CAT 5 by now


I haven't seen any data to support that
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4616 Postby MBryant » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:41 am

If the "stall" remains in place, does upwelling begin to affect Ian? I believe the Gulf is relatively shallow where it now sits. But PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4617 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:41 am

Is this gonna be like Michael where we have to rely on ground observations for the cat 5 upgrade? :eek:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4618 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:41 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Did I hear correctly that Ian nearly took out the recon plane?

God no. I hope not. I saw it had lost altitude for a minute but nothing crazy like that...I hope.


Air Force plane is flying and going to make another pass shortly.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4619 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:42 am

From 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4620 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:42 am

Sanibel wrote:Gulf stream juice creates fully presented category 5 appearance...Slow grinding turn looks like it might be happening...National Hurricane Center says 18 foot surge possible...House is toast...


Sanibel, I know you've been a long time S2K poster and know about that sick feeling you get when its certain you might have major damage to your home. My thoughts and prayers to you and the many others that will suffer much hardship as a result of this storm.
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