ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

I think my eyes are getting old... i'm not sure what aric is seeing? I still see the one very defined vort that is moving nw. Where's the 2nd one at?

[cane5]

Boy everybody is all over the place with this thing. In my years on this board we have always clearly had the educated guess little and know the science. Let’s let the the educated post and everybody else tone it down.

[cheezyWXguy]

Boy everybody is all over the place with this thing. In my years on this board we have always clearly had the educated guess little and know the science. Let’s let the the educated post and everybody else tone it down.

Haha, I hate to say it, but this is pretty par for the course with highly anticipated storms early in their formation. Lots to talk about but nothing really happening yet, which gets people antsy.

[Javlin]

My opinion is the center of the broad low is 67.1w 12.2n

I feel it's somewhere there's about but the EURO has a center of mass/blob at 12.7/66.6 for 4PM IDK we need a center but Levi's video ??But you go look at the GFS for 7PM is 13.2/67.1 watch and wait.

[SFLcane]

Link: https://youtu.be/HTz1IyM_B5o

[Aric Dunn]

I think my eyes are getting old... i'm not sure what aric is seeing? I still see the one very defined vort that is moving nw. Where's the 2nd one at?

[stormhunter7]

Ahh.. My eyes were playing tricks on me. Right before sunset, it appeared that tower fired off a possible spin, but hard to tell.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/m ... h=90&dim=1

[Aric Dunn]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like a broad area of spin. Still needs to consolidate better, which I believe will happen tomorrow. Just my 2 cents.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on 98L
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waJu2uzWf4k

[wx98]

This seems an awful lot like a Charley track if the TVCN holds or shifts just a little SE after this gets going.

[IsabelaWeather]

I think the people saying it will miss the CONUS are wishcasting, I dont see how the trough will pick it up and turn it that sharply at this point. That would be a very sharp turn sending it almost due east from western Cuba.

[cycloneye]

They are ready to work on this system on full gear.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1573082399839494144

[JaxGator]

Hey guys, it’s been awhile. Hope everyone is doing well. Watching this one closely. I was thinking that 98L/future Hermine’s potential path “could” be similar to the Cedar Key Hurricane of 1896 (It’s one analog that I could find besides the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921). That hurricane did form further north than 98L is currently located, but the path after that once it gets to Jamaica eerily looks similar to some of the more east leaning forecast models atm.

The hurricane also formed on September 22nd and made landfall on September 29th. A hurricane of similar strength and path would not bode well for the folks living on the Florida West Coast depending on the size. That would bring the dirty side of the hurricane and storm surge up the coast/the peninsula. I pray not. The large scale weather pattern at the time might have been similar too considering the hurricane started to accelerate upon entering the Gulf.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think the people saying it will miss the CONUS are wishcasting, I dont see how the trough will pick it up and turn it that sharply at this point. That would be a very sharp turn sending it almost due east from western Cuba.

To be fair, I don't think anybody in Florida wants to deal with what this storm unfortunately might become, but I do agree that banking on it missing the CONUS entirely is probably not the greatest idea.

[IsabelaWeather]

I think the people saying it will miss the CONUS are wishcasting, I dont see how the trough will pick it up and turn it that sharply at this point. That would be a very sharp turn sending it almost due east from western Cuba.

To be fair, I don't think anybody in Florida wants to deal with what this storm unfortunately might become, but I do agree that banking on it missing the CONUS entirely is probably not the greatest idea.

I get that, but you need to be realistic. This is a weather forum, we want to focus on realistic impacts, it woul dbe different if that were a legit option. But I have seen no model tracks south of florida.

I dont believe wishcasting brings anything other than issues. Its also part of life living in florida, if that is a problem there are many places to live where you don't get hurricanes.

[Canelaw99]

Well crap here we go after watching and following the 98L threads for a few days a will start finalizing prep in Homestead Fl. Been down this road a few times and i will be ready but i am hoping that i will not need any of it and it misses to the east somehow. I know not likely but holding out hope for my fellow Floridians.

Homestead here too. I’m running over my prep list figuring out what needs to get done when, all while hoping I don’t need to do any of it.

[eastcoastFL]

Starting to move into a little more favorable sheer environment. Convection will probably start picking up tomorrow.

[wxman57]

I think my eyes are getting old... i'm not sure what aric is seeing? I still see the one very defined vort that is moving nw. Where's the 2nd one at?

If you have to hunt for it then it's not there. Wait for Saturday. GFS shifting east, but it's still too far west.

[skyline385]

They are ready to work on this system on full gear.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1573082399839494144

Yes they are, I accidently posted this tweet from Andy in the Fiona thread but looks like they have summoned the entire recon fleet for 98L

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573000974872055808