ATL: IAN - Models

[caneman]

Well GFS and Euro shifted very slightly which is almost within the realm of a normal run (Euro actually just seems faster thats it). ICON and CMC are prone to random shifts all the time, so I think his tweet is misleading saying all major models shifted significantly...

Huh? There clearly has.been an eastward shift.lt looks more and more like Cedar Key to Sarasota to me.

I am guessing you were talking about the Euro, here's the two runs side by side. 18Z run was just faster thats it.

https://i.imgur.com/EeDGFDd.jpg

And most of the other models have shifted east. The center was also found further left. Bank on it, shifted to the east at 11. Further, faster on the Euro means it more easily gets picked up.

[skillz305]

Huh? There clearly has.been an eastward shift.lt looks more and more like Cedar Key to Sarasota to me.

I am guessing you were talking about the Euro, here's the two runs side by side. 18Z run was just faster thats it.

https://i.imgur.com/EeDGFDd.jpg

And most of the other models have shifted east. The center was also found further left. Bank on it, shifted to the east at 11. Further, faster on the Euro means it more easily gets picked up.

I’m also leaning on a slight east shift at 11pm update. The models should get a better grasp overnight tbh. Very curious to see what Ian looks like (mainly the COC) when I wake up tomorrow morning.

[LarryWx]

I don't know if anyone posted it, but the 12Z JMA landfalls near Tampa at 120. So, this is similar to the Euro and UKMET at 12Z.

[utweather]

Huh? There clearly has.been an eastward shift.lt looks more and more like Cedar Key to Sarasota to me.

I am guessing you were talking about the Euro, here's the two runs side by side. 18Z run was just faster thats it.

https://i.imgur.com/EeDGFDd.jpg

And most of the other models have shifted east. The center was also found further left. Bank on it, shifted to the east at 11. Further, faster on the Euro means it more easily gets picked up.

Anyone know how far west it would have to go for the trough to miss it?

[skillz305]

I am guessing you were talking about the Euro, here's the two runs side by side. 18Z run was just faster thats it.

https://i.imgur.com/EeDGFDd.jpg

And most of the other models have shifted east. The center was also found further left. Bank on it, shifted to the east at 11. Further, faster on the Euro means it more easily gets picked up.

Anyone know how far west it would have to go for the trough to miss it?

It’s not about the trough missing the hurricane. Trough more south = Ian pulls towards Florida. Trough pulls away north = Ian stays west and even possibly meanders in the gulf til it’s picked up. I’ve learned a lot from Dr. Levy youtube vids!

[gatorcane]

18Z Euro animation:

[Bocadude85]

Well GFS and Euro shifted very slightly which is almost within the realm of a normal run (Euro actually just seems faster thats it). ICON and CMC are prone to random shifts all the time, so I think his tweet is misleading saying all major models shifted significantly...

Huh? There clearly has.been an eastward shift.lt looks more and more like Cedar Key to Sarasota to me.

I am guessing you were talking about the Euro, here's the two runs side by side. 18Z run was just faster thats it.

https://i.imgur.com/EeDGFDd.jpg

Not to split hairs or anything but if you compare the 18z 90 hour position and the 12z 96 hour position you can see the NE adjustment… the 18z is faster and slightly NE of the 12Z.. may not make much of a difference in the final landfall location but many small NE adjustments can add up to a fairly large range of landfall locations when approaching the peninsula at this angle.

[Blown Away]

18z ECMWF… Trend, NE and faster.

[Stormcenter]

I just don't believe the NHC has a good hold on where Ian is going and probably won't for another few days. Way too many things
that can change to affect the final track and the models obviously are the same way now.

[CronkPSU]

I just don't believe the NHC has a good hold on where Ian is going and probably won't for another few days. Way too many things
that can change to affect the final track and the models obviously are the same way now.

yeah they said as much in their 5 PM discussion and saying they have a lot more uncertainty days 4-5 than normal

think 11PM will be a slight adjustment S and E but will talk about how they hope the new models coming in before 5AM may bring some agreement

[jlauderdal]

I just don't believe the NHC has a good hold on where Ian is going and probably won't for another few days. Way too many things
that can change to affect the final track and the models obviously are the same way now.

A few days might be a bit late for preps

[Blown Away]

I just don't believe the NHC has a good hold on where Ian is going and probably won't for another few days. Way too many things
that can change to affect the final track and the models obviously are the same way now.

A few days might be a bit late for preps

Recon, sondes, and all the ballon data from across the CONUS today, the NHC will likely have a good handle this time tomorrow. If that trough is stronger the S adjustments on the SWFL coast will be quick and in 3-4 day cone. It can change very quickly!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I just don't believe the NHC has a good hold on where Ian is going and probably won't for another few days. Way too many things
that can change to affect the final track and the models obviously are the same way now.

yeah they said as much in their 5 PM discussion and saying they have a lot more uncertainty days 4-5 than normal

think 11PM will be a slight adjustment S and E but will talk about how they hope the new models coming in before 5AM may bring some agreement

Yeah they pretty much said this in the last update, the cone is just sort of tradition right now and the best guess.

[NFLnut]

A few days might be a bit late for preps

It's late September. If people have waited until this late to prep, it's on them. Whomever gets the brunt of this will certainly know for sure with 72 hours notice. Everyone within the cone for the last 48 hours should be ready for GO mode.

[gatorcane]

Anybody have the 18Z Euro ensembles?

[LarryWx]

Anybody have the 18Z Euro ensembles?

I don't see much change vs 12Z other than perhaps the spread seeming to be a little narrower.

[blp]

Anybody have the 18Z Euro ensembles?

[AmandaInDestin]

A few days might be a bit late for preps

It's late September. If people have waited until this late to prep, it's on them. Whomever gets the brunt of this will certainly know for sure with 72 hours notice. Everyone within the cone for the last 48 hours should be ready for GO mode.

My prep is full tank of gas in all vehicles, cash and important documents in water proof cases. I like the comfort of air-conditioning. I don't want to ride out any storms and sit without power. A strong fart knocks out our power lines here.

[gatorcane]

Thanks yeah the EPS really is similar to the 12Z so hasn’t moved much.

[StPeteMike]

Anybody have the 18Z Euro ensembles?

https://i.ibb.co/m6T0nZK/AL09.gif

Euro hates Tampa Bay, it’s been on that track for some runs.