ATL: IAN - Models

[Michele B]

12z ukmet pretty far south.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lc1Csww/706-C7642-CEF7-4524-B727-BF0-A6-C3-E4914.jpg

Charley

[ColdMiser123]

Another NE shift on the 18z ICON compared to 12z, the 21z forecast (5 pm EDT) looked basically spot on to where Ian is currently located.

[HurricaneBelle]

While I'd love to see Ian weak and stay weak, I'd rather have say, a Cat 2 coming down from a Cat 3 than a Cat 1 increasing to a Cat 3 as it makes landfall as weakening storms tend to have trouble mixing down their winds as opposed to strengthening storms which pack more of a punch. To put it in terms of Louisiana hurricanes, I'd rather get hit by a Lili than an Ida.

[Frank P]

Actually the 18z NAM looks creditable with Ian heading towards NE/NNE towards the west coast of Fl, run ends att.

https://i.ibb.co/BcRGShY/2-C2-D4-D41-5-F08-48-D3-B408-12606-E51574-F.jpg

You are a brave man posting the NAM in a tropical setup. It has value, but there are plenty of NAM haters.

Yeah, well if the model fits, I post it… haha, there’s several models I hate but I still post them… heck it might even beat the GFS!

[AutoPenalti]

I thought it was proven NAM can’t be used for tropical disturbances.

[Frank P]

I thought it was proven NAM can’t be used for tropical disturbances.

Hmmmm, well this is a model forum, and it is a model, and it forecast a hurricane, and I just used it… so there’s that! Ha!

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z Icon E shift with strike south of Sarasota.

[Bocadude85]

18Z ICON with another eastward shift, looks to come ashore around Punta Gorda

[skyline385]

18Z ICON east shift

[BobHarlem]

18z Icon right shift from Bradenton to Venice/Englewood, then rides up I-4 to Daytona.

[NDG]

18z Icon shifts to the east, South of Venice then NE to Kissimmee and to Titusville.

[skillz305]

18z ICON takes Ian thru Florida then rides up the east coast of the US for a bit.

[StPeteMike]

ICON is overdoing it. I can’t see that sudden of a turn to the NE to allow it that south.

[cjrciadt]

18z Icon shifts to the east, South of Venice then NE to [b]Kissimmee/b] and to Titusville.

Ugh, but makes sense to jog NE thru the weakness.

[Blown Away]

18z Icon shifts to the east, South of Venice then NE to Kissimmee and to Titusville.

As these models continue shifting SE we should see most drop the stall and start showing smooth NE recurve into the Atlantic. ICON is very close, I suspect 00z will show nice transition into the Atlantic.

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z INIT

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[skillz305]

18z GFS at hour 30 is NE of previous runs