ATL: IAN - Models

[chris_fit]

That's a pretty decent shift for the euro. Lots of surge in the bay with that solution is.

[Steve H.]

Don’t buy the 18z euro. I like the solution but it doesn’t make sense. Have to fly to Pittsburgh from Melbourne on Friday so I like the further west models. But knowing my luck, it will come further east

[eastcoastFL]

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1574156450712227842?s=46&t=lpfa0HKiQW7aTEXyhOUuUA

What does that even mean?

[NDG]

That's a pretty decent shift for the euro. Lots of surge in the bay with that solution is.

Yep, shows wind gusts in the 100+ mph across Pinellas County.

[MJGarrison]

Don’t buy the 18z euro. I like the solution but it doesn’t make sense. Have to fly to Pittsburgh from Melbourne on Friday so I like the further west models. But knowing my luck, it will come further east

With the 18Z Euro finally showing a pressure in the 950s, like the GFS has been, maybe it does make sense to take a slightly more left track like the GFS. The GFS just overdid it.


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[chris_fit]

Curious about the 18z EPS

[eastcoastFL]

Curious about the 18z EPS

This run was odd. What causes the change in course after it approaches Tampa? Does the trough latch on and let go?

[chris_fit]

Anyone have 18z ukmet?

[cycloneye]

00z TCVN line moves more east and now is over Clearwater near Tampa.

[chris_fit]

00z TCVN line moves more east and now is over Clearwater near Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/k8VE4jE.png

18z euro should move it little more west, no?

[PandaCitrus]

Looks like Canadian and UKMet are still well south and east so not necessarily. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't TCVN the FSU Super Ensemble? It's going to have more models than just Euro and GFS split 50/50.

00z TCVN line moves more east and now is over Clearwater near Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/k8VE4jE.png

18z euro should move it little more west, no?

[USTropics]

Looks like Canadian and UKMet are still well south and east so not necessarily. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't TCVN the FSU Super Ensemble? It's going to have more models than just Euro and GFS split 50/50.

00z TCVN line moves more east and now is over Clearwater near Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/k8VE4jE.png

18z euro should move it little more west, no?

TVCN is a consensus model of the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, HMON (previously GFDL), and the COAMPS model with applied corrective biases. FSU Super Ensembles (FSSE) is a private model that only select institutions have access to.

Remember these 00z model runs currently are interpolated (notice they end in I). Interpolated models do not contain current data for that model suite (i.e., there is no actual 00z model data in interpolated model runs). Instead, the models runs are interpolated ahead by 6 hours from the previous model data.

[cane5]

Curious about the 18z EPS

This run was odd. What causes the change in course after it approaches Tampa? Does the trough latch on and let go?

I agree doesn’t quite make sense unless there is weakness in the high….

[NDG]

Anyone have 18z ukmet?

Only goes to 60 hrs, a little to the right from previous 12z run.

[USTropics]

Curious about the 18z EPS

This run was odd. What causes the change in course after it approaches Tampa? Does the trough latch on and let go?

It's subtle, but notice the boundary of the high pressure to the east (outlined in pink). It is more pronounced in the 18z ECMWF run, which induces more of a south to north flow. The 12z was very close to this solution as well, just about 50 miles east means a landfall in Tampa area.

18z ECMWF


12z ECMWF

[skyline385]

Looks like Canadian and UKMet are still well south and east so not necessarily. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't TCVN the FSU Super Ensemble? It's going to have more models than just Euro and GFS split 50/50.

18z euro should move it little more west, no?

TVCN is a consensus model of the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, HMON (previously GFDL), and the COAMPS model with applied corrective biases. FSU Super Ensembles (FSSE) is a private model that only select institutions have access to.

Remember these 00z model runs currently are interpolated (notice they end in I). Interpolated models do not contain current data for that model suite (i.e., there is no actual 00z model data in interpolated model runs). Instead, the models runs are interpolated ahead by 6 hours from the previous model data.

Small correction to this, Interpolated models are the last model run but with current initialization. So in that sense they do contain current data. For the above example, the models would use the 0Z initialization but then interpolate off the solution of the 18Z run for the first timestep and forward.

Here's an explanation from the NHC models page

Multi-layer dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique can be used to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast to apply to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (06Z) run of the GFS would be adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 12Z) would exactly match the observed 12Z position and intensity of the tropical cyclone. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model for the 12Z forecast cycle that is based on the most current available guidance. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, for historical reasons, as interpolated models.

[Nimbus]

This is going west of the Isle of Youth, we can all agree on that?

[TallyTracker]

So are the 18z Euro and GFS runs similar now? Euro now shows Ian raking the whole west coast and making final landfall in the Big Bend it appears.

[Frank P]

This is going west of the Isle of Youth, we can all agree on that?

On it current heading, yep

[skyline385]

18Z EPS mean makes a landfall near Tampa Bay