ATL: IAN - Models

[gatorcane]

Wow GFS that is a worst case scenario

[Jag95]

72 hours is usually when I start taking the models very seriously, and this is getting into that time frame. But this one still has a greater than average level of uncertainty.

[tolakram]

[TallyTracker]

The models flipping back and forth is making me dizzy! lol That last GFS run looks horrific for Tampa.

[Iceresistance]

I know someone living in Orlando and they're under a TS Watch, what are the possible impacts being shown on the models?

[Hurricane Mike]

Wow GFS. This would cause a lot of water pile-up along the coast.

[Abdullah]

Global Forecasting System (GFS) (https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=) 12Z reports.

09/26, 00Z projected landfall 976 mbar at St. George Island, Franklin County Friday afternoon (peak in GoM 943 mbar)
09/26, 06Z projected landfall 984 mbar in rural Taylor County Friday afternoon (peak in GoM 950 mbar)
09/26, 12Z projecting landfall 967 mbar at St. Pete Beach, Pinellas County Thursday morning (peak in GoM 948 mbar)

70 miles to the east between 00Z and 06Z
170 miles to the south between 06Z and 12Z

240 mile shift southeast between the 00Z and 12Z models. Very bad scenario for Tampa Bay, especially since the storm also stalls for nine hours over the city

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow GFS. This would cause a lot of water pile-up along the coast.

Yep. From approach to exit, it looks like the bay would take onshore flow for almost 2 days on that run

[tolakram]

CMC

[chris_fit]

History suggests storms forecast to hit Tampa end up on the northern gulf coast... I don't like the number of models forcasting a slow down / stall off the Florida west coast. Elana did that...

Or S of Tampa. Or anywhere, except Tampa. See Charley and Irma among some of the ones forecast to be 'the one'

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1574431288559386625

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET pretty close to 0Z track and continues to have a clearcut SE outlier track coming ashore well south of Tampa. Also, note that this is actually about the strongest it has had Ian (984 mb) even though it still is relatively weak vs other models. In addition, this track is SE of the 0Z track late in the run:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2022

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 82.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2022 0 18.6N 82.4W 990 45
0000UTC 27.09.2022 12 20.8N 83.5W 986 48
1200UTC 27.09.2022 24 22.5N 84.0W 989 44
0000UTC 28.09.2022 36 24.0N 83.9W 986 47
1200UTC 28.09.2022 48 25.6N 83.3W 984 57
0000UTC 29.09.2022 60 26.6N 82.4W 986 52
1200UTC 29.09.2022 72 27.3N 81.7W 991 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 84 28.3N 80.8W 992 47
1200UTC 30.09.2022 96 29.2N 80.6W 992 45
0000UTC 01.10.2022 108 30.6N 80.0W 988 50
1200UTC 01.10.2022 120 33.1N 79.9W 988 41
0000UTC 02.10.2022 132 34.9N 79.9W 997 28
1200UTC 02.10.2022 144 36.4N 78.9W 1002 29

[SFLcane]

12Z UKMET pretty close to 0Z track and continues to have a clearcut SE outlier track coming ashore well south of Tampa. Also, note that this is actually about the strongest it has had Ian (984 mb) even though it still is relatively weak vs other models:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2022

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 82.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2022 0 18.6N 82.4W 990 45
0000UTC 27.09.2022 12 20.8N 83.5W 986 48
1200UTC 27.09.2022 24 22.5N 84.0W 989 44
0000UTC 28.09.2022 36 24.0N 83.9W 986 47
1200UTC 28.09.2022 48 25.6N 83.3W 984 57
0000UTC 29.09.2022 60 26.6N 82.4W 986 52
1200UTC 29.09.2022 72 27.3N 81.7W 991 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 84 28.3N 80.8W 992 47
1200UTC 30.09.2022 96 29.2N 80.6W 992 45
0000UTC 01.10.2022 108 30.6N 80.0W 988 50
1200UTC 01.10.2022 120 33.1N 79.9W 988 41
0000UTC 02.10.2022 132 34.9N 79.9W 997 28
1200UTC 02.10.2022 144 36.4N 78.9W 1002 29

Graphics not out yet...

[HurricaneBelle]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1574431288559386625?s=20&t=fGvsfJn4b_bgdXPc3zB3-A

Debby was a famous "win" for the GFS as the Euro had insisted it would go west and GFS said east. That was the last true major rainfall event in Tampa Bay, we got 10-15" from her and I actually ended up with some water intrusion.

[tolakram]

One of these is going to be wrong in just over 30 hours.

HWRF


HAFS

[kevin]

One of these is going to be wrong in just over 30 hours.

HWRF
https://i.imgur.com/iVzIDUS.gif

HAFS
https://i.imgur.com/LastwTu.gif

Interesting how different HWRF's track is compared to GFS since if I recall correctly HWRF is based on GFS, at least the initialization.

Edit: Nvm, those are the 06z runs. We'll have to wait for 12z to see if HWRF shifts as well.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574434220616753153

[TheBigO]

I know someone living in Orlando and they're under a TS Watch, what are the possible impacts being shown on the models?

I believe the TS Watch means TS like conditions could begin to appear within the next 48 hours.

The big concern for us in the Orlando metro is flooding... yes there will be winds, but the flooding from this is going to cause a lot of issues in the year because we've already had so much rain lately, a lot of rivers and ponds are at pretty high levels already.

[skyline385]

One of these is going to be wrong in just over 30 hours.

HWRF


HAFS

06Z HMON has the same landfall as the HAFS run which carries more weight in my opinion because it isn’t experimental


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[MrJames]

12z UKMET is the blue line.