ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2801 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:32 am

I wouldn't pay much attention to the CMC model. It's WAY too weak in the Gulf in my opinion....
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2802 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:32 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z UKMET pretty close to 0Z track and continues to have a clearcut SE outlier track coming ashore well south of Tampa. Also, note that this is actually about the strongest it has had Ian (984 mb) even though it still is relatively weak vs other models. In addition, this track is SE of the 0Z track late in the run:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2022

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 82.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2022 0 18.6N 82.4W 990 45
0000UTC 27.09.2022 12 20.8N 83.5W 986 48
1200UTC 27.09.2022 24 22.5N 84.0W 989 44
0000UTC 28.09.2022 36 24.0N 83.9W 986 47
1200UTC 28.09.2022 48 25.6N 83.3W 984 57
0000UTC 29.09.2022 60 26.6N 82.4W 986 52
1200UTC 29.09.2022 72 27.3N 81.7W 991 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 84 28.3N 80.8W 992 47
1200UTC 30.09.2022 96 29.2N 80.6W 992 45
0000UTC 01.10.2022 108 30.6N 80.0W 988 50
1200UTC 01.10.2022 120 33.1N 79.9W 988 41
0000UTC 02.10.2022 132 34.9N 79.9W 997 28
1200UTC 02.10.2022 144 36.4N 78.9W 1002 29


Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2803 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:33 am

MrJames wrote:12z UKMET is the blue line.

https://i.imgur.com/6mxtnY2.gif


Ukie is either on to something or on something.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2804 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:33 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2805 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:34 am

SFLcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z UKMET pretty close to 0Z track and continues to have a clearcut SE outlier track coming ashore well south of Tampa. Also, note that this is actually about the strongest it has had Ian (984 mb) even though it still is relatively weak vs other models. In addition, this track is SE of the 0Z track late in the run:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2022

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 82.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2022 0 18.6N 82.4W 990 45
0000UTC 27.09.2022 12 20.8N 83.5W 986 48
1200UTC 27.09.2022 24 22.5N 84.0W 989 44
0000UTC 28.09.2022 36 24.0N 83.9W 986 47
1200UTC 28.09.2022 48 25.6N 83.3W 984 57
0000UTC 29.09.2022 60 26.6N 82.4W 986 52
1200UTC 29.09.2022 72 27.3N 81.7W 991 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 84 28.3N 80.8W 992 47
1200UTC 30.09.2022 96 29.2N 80.6W 992 45
0000UTC 01.10.2022 108 30.6N 80.0W 988 50
1200UTC 01.10.2022 120 33.1N 79.9W 988 41
0000UTC 02.10.2022 132 34.9N 79.9W 997 28
1200UTC 02.10.2022 144 36.4N 78.9W 1002 29


https://i.postimg.cc/nLNqVj7s/ukmet.png


12Z UKMET landfalls in Port Charlotte area, about 75 miles south of Tampa area, perhaps barely south of the 0Zrun.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2806 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:35 am

SFLcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z UKMET pretty close to 0Z track and continues to have a clearcut SE outlier track coming ashore well south of Tampa. Also, note that this is actually about the strongest it has had Ian (984 mb) even though it still is relatively weak vs other models. In addition, this track is SE of the 0Z track late in the run:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2022

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 82.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2022 0 18.6N 82.4W 990 45
0000UTC 27.09.2022 12 20.8N 83.5W 986 48
1200UTC 27.09.2022 24 22.5N 84.0W 989 44
0000UTC 28.09.2022 36 24.0N 83.9W 986 47
1200UTC 28.09.2022 48 25.6N 83.3W 984 57
0000UTC 29.09.2022 60 26.6N 82.4W 986 52
1200UTC 29.09.2022 72 27.3N 81.7W 991 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 84 28.3N 80.8W 992 47
1200UTC 30.09.2022 96 29.2N 80.6W 992 45
0000UTC 01.10.2022 108 30.6N 80.0W 988 50
1200UTC 01.10.2022 120 33.1N 79.9W 988 41
0000UTC 02.10.2022 132 34.9N 79.9W 997 28
1200UTC 02.10.2022 144 36.4N 78.9W 1002 29


https://i.postimg.cc/nLNqVj7s/ukmet.png

That image is 0z.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2807 Postby LARanger » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:38 am

tolakram wrote:You really have to hate all these models. I thought I ran the Canadian here by accident, this is the Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/6n97jNI.gif


Ermagerd, it ends there?!? . . . Where is that going after this left turn shown at the end? The HWRF 6z run suggests a little meandering followed by Panama City, but at this point I don't think anything can be applied between models insofar as logic is concerned.

By the way, "windshield wiper" as a loving insult to the models still works, but I feel like any minute now we're going to go full Radar Sweep:

Image
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The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2808 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:38 am

MrJames wrote:12z UKMET is the blue line.

https://i.imgur.com/6mxtnY2.gif


Thanks. This shows the 12Z UK hitting Port Charlotte area and also look at what it does in SC. It has a landfall near Charleston.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2809 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:44 am

tolakram wrote:One of these is going to be wrong in just over 30 hours.

HWRF
https://i.imgur.com/iVzIDUS.gif

HAFS
https://i.imgur.com/LastwTu.gif

Aren’t those the 6Z, not 12Z
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2810 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:56 am

skyline385 wrote:
tolakram wrote:One of these is going to be wrong in just over 30 hours.

HWRF
https://i.imgur.com/iVzIDUS.gif

HAFS
https://i.imgur.com/LastwTu.gif

06Z HMON has the same landfall as the HAFS run which carries more weight in my opinion because it isn’t experimental


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Is that right into the bay? Or slightly north of it?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2811 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:57 am

I have a bad feeling about both the HWRF and the HMON.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2812 Postby AerospaceEng » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:00 pm

12z HWRF is coming in East of 6z, through 36 hours.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2813 Postby MrJames » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:01 pm

Better view of the 12z UKMET

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2814 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:08 pm

MrJames wrote:Better view of the 12z UKMET

https://i.imgur.com/GOx6CW6.gif


Thank you for this great animation. What's really bizarre is that the UKMET is often on the left side of guidance. For example, it was about the best with Irma and that is because it was on the left side.
If this were to end up verifying closely, it would be great news for Tampa though bad in the Port Charlotte to Ft Myers area.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2815 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:11 pm

What's different on the 12z UKMET that causes it to be so far south vs the other models?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2816 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:13 pm

12Z JMA landfalls at Sarasota, barely south of Tampa.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2817 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:13 pm

Just like I feared, the HMON model has another devastating hit for Tampa, now we just wait for the HWRF to finish and see what it does.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2818 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:16 pm

Yikes, now all models are zeroing in on Tampa or just around it, did new data come in?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2819 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:20 pm

12Z Gfs ensembles well west into panhandle matching up with latest Euro and Euro ensembles
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2820 Postby StormPyrate » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:22 pm

Ivanhater wrote:12Z Gfs ensembles well west into panhandle matching up with latest Euro and Euro ensembles

If you could, why the disparity in the ensembles vs track
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