ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3481 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:29 am

00z models:
In regards to the NC triangle:

GFS/HWRF shifted back west and away.
CMC shifted east and brings solid TS conditions
UKMET pretty much unchanged
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3482 Postby kassi » Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:03 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3483 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:28 am

06z NCEP model suite shifted east and is now inline with the the UKMET.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3484 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:45 am

6Z models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3485 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:48 am

6Z UKMET landfalls at Myrtle Beach at 5PM EDT. UKMET has been nothing short of stellar since the 0Z 9/25 run and better than any other model since then! Let's see if it can earn an exclamation mark for its performance here with a near MB landfall.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3486 Postby Vdogg » Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:53 am

Very good model agreement now. Myrtle beach it is.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3487 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:12 pm

LarryWx wrote:6Z UKMET landfalls at Myrtle Beach at 5PM EDT. UKMET has been nothing short of stellar since the 0Z 9/25 run and better than any other model since then! Let's see if it can earn an exclamation mark for its performance here with a near MB landfall.


Agreed 100%. UKMET has been the king with Ian.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3488 Postby Old-TimeCane » Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:23 pm

LarryWx wrote:6Z UKMET landfalls at Myrtle Beach at 5PM EDT. UKMET has been nothing short of stellar since the 0Z 9/25 run and better than any other model since then! Let's see if it can earn an exclamation mark for its performance here with a near MB landfall.


I think we can give it that exclamation mark.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3489 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:51 pm

Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls:

0Z 9/25:
ICON Venice
CMC Cedar Key
GFS Destin
Euro Sarasota
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/25:
ICON Sarasota
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Tampa
UKMET Venice

0Z 9/26:
ICON Venice
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Cedar Key
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/26:
ICON Tampa
CMC Apalachicola
GFS Tampa
Euro Big Bend
UKMET Port Charlotte

0Z 9/27:
ICON Venice
CMC Big Bend
GFS Sarasota
Euro Venice
UKMET just N of Ft Myers

12Z 9/27:
ICON Port Charlotte
CMC Tampa
GFS just N of Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers

0Z 9/28:
ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte
CMC Venice
GFS Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET Port Charlotte

My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs:

UKMET A-
ICON B
Euro C-
GFS D
CMC F
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3490 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:18 pm

Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs:
* = goes offshore FL


12Z 9/26:
CMC just E of Columbus, GA
GFS Albany, GA
Euro Columbus, GA
Icon SE GA
*UKMET CHS

0Z 9/27:
CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL
GFS Gainesville, FL
Euro: JAX
*ICON: SAV
*UKMET: CHS

12Z 9/27:
CMC just SW of JAX
GFS JAX
*Euro just S of SAV
*iCON Beaufort
*UKMET CHS

0Z 9/28:
CMC JAX
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS

12Z 9/28:
*CMC Beaufort
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET just SW of MB

0Z 9/29:
*CMC CHS
*GFS CHS
*Euro Beaufort
*ICON Beaufort
*UKMET G'town

12Z 9/29:
*CMC G'town
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town

0Z 9/30:
*CMC MB
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET G'town


Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:

CMC D
GFS C-
Euro C-
ICON B
UKMET A
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