ATL: IAN - Models

[chris_fit]

GFS Trend

[Kohlecane]

06Z GFS takes this in just south of Perry, near Fish Creek.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS and Euro as of 06z are identical.. Both spare the worst of Ian to the west for Tampa and erode him as he heads for Apalachicola.

[chris_fit]

GFS and Euro as of 06z are identical.. Both spare the worst of Ian to the west for Tampa and erode him as he heads for Apalachicola.

Not identical, but the closest they've been in a realllly long time.

[chris_fit]

Most 06Z GFS ENS still offshore

[chris_fit]

06Z ICON

[NDG]

Don't like how the 06z GFS and 0z Euro just about stall Ian for around 24 hrs, that will be horrible for storm surge for parts of western FL.

[toad strangler]

Don't like how the 06z GFS and 0z Euro just about stall Ian for around 24 hrs, that will be horrible for storm surge for parts of western FL.

And never ending banding through the heart of the peninsula. Not nearly the issue storm surge is though, of course.

[caneman]

GFS and Euro as of 06z are identical.. Both spare the worst of Ian to the west for Tampa and erode him as he heads for Apalachicola.

That run from the Euro I believe is just 20 miles or so off the coast (I live near the coast) and the GFS just moved much closer and is actually worse for us in Tampa Bay. It will drive massive amounts of water up Tampa Bay and create massive flooding and it wont be much wind reduction here in Pinellas county . For it to be better, it would need to come in just South.

[Fancy1001]

Really bad HMON run.

[BobHarlem]

6z hmon

[kevin]

Really bad HMON run.

Yep, high-end cat 4 right into Tampa...

[chris_fit]

Really bad HMON run.

Oh Wow... Way Way East of previous run!

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS and Euro as of 06z are identical.. Both spare the worst of Ian to the west for Tampa and erode him as he heads for Apalachicola.

That run from the Euro I believe is just 20 miles or so off the coast (I live near the coast) and the GFS just moved much closer and is actually worse for us in Tampa Bay. It will drive massive amounts of water up Tampa Bay and create massive flooding and it wont be much wind reduction here in Pinellas county . For it to be better, it would need to come in just South.

Hes no Irma though core wise if the GFS verified. Should keep the strongest winds offshore. Surge is a totally different animal.

[NDG]

Really bad HMON run.

Yep, high-end cat 4 right into Tampa...

https://i.imgur.com/wsNlTj4.png

HMON does pretty good on it forecast track, usually.

[toad strangler]

Really bad HMON run.

Yep, high-end cat 4 right into Tampa...

https://i.imgur.com/wsNlTj4.png

HMON does pretty good on it forecast track, usually.

THat's a pretty sharp turn to the east. Not sure about that.

[caneman]

GFS and Euro as of 06z are identical.. Both spare the worst of Ian to the west for Tampa and erode him as he heads for Apalachicola.

That run from the Euro I believe is just 20 miles or so off the coast (I live near the coast) and the GFS just moved much closer and is actually worse for us in Tampa Bay. It will drive massive amounts of water up Tampa Bay and create massive flooding and it wont be much wind reduction here in Pinellas county . For it to be better, it would need to come in just South.

Hes no Irma though core wise if the GFS verified. Should keep the strongest winds offshore. Surge is a totally different animal.

That would be incorrect, on the GFS track we would still get hammered with winds and it would be worse than Irma. There is zero better about that run.. I know, I've lived very near the Pinellas Beaches for 46 years

[ronjon]

GFS and Euro as of 06z are identical.. Both spare the worst of Ian to the west for Tampa and erode him as he heads for Apalachicola.

That run from the Euro I believe is just 20 miles or so off the coast (I live near the coast) and the GFS just moved much closer and is actually worse for us in Tampa Bay. It will drive massive amounts of water up Tampa Bay and create massive flooding and it wont be much wind reduction here in Pinellas county . For it to be better, it would need to come in just South.

Yes caneman, while I don't wish the landfall on anyone else, the ICON path would be the best case for Tampa bay with winds blowing offshore and no surge.

[CronkPSU]

Yep, high-end cat 4 right into Tampa...

https://i.imgur.com/wsNlTj4.png

HMON does pretty good on it forecast track, usually.

THat's a pretty sharp turn to the east. Not sure about that.

i still have Charlie PTSD so i can 100% see that as a possibility

[Blown Away]

00 ECENS

00z ECENS (Zoomed In)(Red line in NHC)

06 GEFS

06z GEFS (Zoomed In)(Red line is NHC)

Ian's ensemble path's over Cuba and clearly the ECENS right of the track ensembles track farther S into SWFL and GEFS track nearer to Tampa area.
GEFS have to be driving the NHC folks crazy...
Something to watch today.