ATL: IAN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/FKpKthXC/DEE299-A5-68-C1-4426-B007-CDF5-AF45-FA6-B.png

Isn’t that model mesoscale? HRRR sounds familiar

[chris_fit]

Seems like a connection there with the trough, but no significant E movement

[Ivanhater]

Huge west shift on Euro.

Looks stronger and slower. Earlier runs had it hooking NW at landfall. Euro looks around Apalachicola

[Hurricane Mike]

Wow if that 06z Euro verified, the storm surge would just push straight up Tampa Bay.

[Blown Away]

Wow if that 06z Euro verified, the storm surge would just push straight up Tampa Bay.

For sure storm surge would happen, but the sustained hurricane winds stay offshore at that position.

[NDG]

Wow, big shift to the west by the 06z Euro
The forecast is becoming a nightmare.

[tolakram]

Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.

[TheBigO]

The last ICON model had it basically riding up Interstate 4. Crazy!

[skyline385]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/FKpKthXC/DEE299-A5-68-C1-4426-B007-CDF5-AF45-FA6-B.png

Isn’t that model mesoscale? HRRR sounds familiar

It is, doesn't have a global grid either like the high resolution NAM versions

[ronjon]

Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.

My head is spinning between the flopping model runs at such a short time scale between Euro and GFS. 06z GFS moved east, 06z Euro moved west....now what happens at 12z? Do they finally align with each other? If we weren't talking about a CAT4 storm, most of my concern might be academic but we're literally on pins and needles on the Florida west coast now.

[skyline385]

Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.

GFS was also the first to see the stall/slowdown, I remember when so many folks were very insistent that a stall isn't possible in the Gulf in late September

[CronkPSU]

i mean the GFS has been ALL OVER the place the last 4 days...easy to give it credit because one of them has to be right eventually lol...GFS can put it into Sanibel or Destin next run and neither would surprise me or to see it laser in on somewhere now and be right

[hiflyer]

967 on the new one. Stronger=west?

[Elsiecoro]

Now seems like a good time to remind everyone to please donate to help keep these boards going and support Storm2K

There is a handy PayPal link at the top of the page, and I’m sure even the smallest of amounts helps

I just added a small amount myself to keep this invaluable service going

[MBryant]

Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.

GFS was also the first to see the stall/slowdown, I remember when so many folks were very insistent that a stall isn't possible in the Gulf in late September

In 50+ years tracking hurricanes, the only thing I can say with certainty is that anythings possible, even if it's never been recorded before.

[skyline385]

i mean the GFS has been ALL OVER the place the last 4 days...easy to give it credit because one of them has to be right eventually lol...GFS can put it into Sanibel or Destin next run and neither would surprise me or to see it laser in on somewhere now and be right

I made a trend comparison between the GFS and Euro a few pages back, basically both models have fluctuated nearly the same over the past 2-3 days, GFS has been on the west while the Euro has been on east.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1574383351754014720

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574380598252040192

[Ivanhater]

Yeah. I don't get why some people keep calling it the "worst model for Ian" when in fact, it has the been the best this far.

[cycloneye]