ATL: IAN - Models

[chris_fit]

06Z EPS, following the OPs, Significant W Shift!

[Ivanhater]

That stall allows the NW hook before landfall instead of happening inland. That will be key

[chris_fit]

That stall allows the NW hook before landfall instead of happening inland. That will be key

It's wayyy early too, but need to start paying attention to how Ian tracks in the near term. Small Sample size, but he's staying on the right side of the NHC Track so far.

[jlauderdal]

That stall allows the NW hook before landfall instead of happening inland. That will be key

It's wayyy early too, but need to start paying attention to how Ian tracks in the near term. Small Sample size, but he's staying on the right side of the NHC Track so far.

Ian is digesting the latest euro ensembles and is figuring out do I stay right or start a move left..so much for euro consistency.

[Steve H.]

Well, I for one am somewhat relieved as the path further west would allow the shear to knock it down strength wise. And I have a flight out of Melbourne to Pittsburgh on Friday. But a stall would not be good. I remember Elena back in 1986 I think it was, brought havic on the gulf coast with tornadoes in the west counties of Florida. Not a good scenario.

[capepoint]

i mean the GFS has been ALL OVER the place the last 4 days...easy to give it credit because one of them has to be right eventually lol...GFS can put it into Sanibel or Destin next run and neither would surprise me or to see it laser in on somewhere now and be right

Even the blind squirrel stumbles across a nut once in a while...lol

[redingtonbeach]

Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.

GFS was also the first to see the stall/slowdown, I remember when so many folks were very insistent that a stall isn't possible in the Gulf in late September

Last Friday (00Z?), the GFS had a stall on the east coast (Melbourne?) and the Canadian had the stall on the west coast (St. Pete?). In fact, the Canadian's Friday model is pretty close to the Euro's path today, if I'm remembering all these models correctly.

[cane5]

Do most models call for the rapid intensification to happen as of now we are seeing dry air in the system ? Or do some models negate the rapid intensification phase ?

[jlauderdal]

Once again, no matter how much we doubt it, and I was a doubter, the GFS simply does better in this area. It's crazy, but it also hasn't happened yet, so I still have lingering doubts. Euro consistency is meaningless in my opinion.

GFS was also the first to see the stall/slowdown, I remember when so many folks were very insistent that a stall isn't possible in the Gulf in late September

Last Friday (00Z?), the GFS had a stall on the east coast (Melbourne?) and the Canadian had the stall on the west coast (St. Pete?). In fact, the Canadian's Friday model is pretty close to the Euro's path today, if I'm remembering all these models correctly.

The GFS and CMC moved around points in the gulf, when you have that kind of spread your chances of nailing the landfall point increase considerably.

[otowntiger]

Seems as if rapid intensification has not started. Or if it had, perhaps now paused. I wonder if the current ‘leveling off’ in terms of intensification will prompt a lowering of the predicted strength in this up coming advisory?

[Category5Kaiju]

Seems as if rapid intensification has not started. Or if it had, perhaps now paused. I wonder if the current ‘leveling off’ in terms of intensification will prompt a lowering of the predicted strength in this up coming advisory?

I personally doubt it. I think the logic is that this region of the Atlantic is just so primed and favorable for strong storms, and with wind shear still being quite low I am not sure why the NHC would have any strong reason to lower intensity level predictions.

[cane5]

Wow that German model was really spot on. Can anyone update that model ?

[Tailgater33]

I’m not in the firing line for this one thankfully, so as a unbiased observer I’d like to point out these models DO NOT have a mind of their own they simply take the data fed into them and compute it as we (programmers) designed them to.
The Data isn’t always perfect and it does change. This storm is obviously headed to an area of weaker than normal steering currents. I know you want all the models to define an area and tell you exactly what to prepare for but small deviations make for a larger than normal forecast spread.
Have a plan and don’t be that guy or girl that…..

[jfk08c]

Seems as if rapid intensification has not started. Or if it had, perhaps now paused. I wonder if the current ‘leveling off’ in terms of intensification will prompt a lowering of the predicted strength in this up coming advisory?

I personally doubt it. I think the logic is that this region of the Atlantic is just so primed and favorable for strong storms, and with wind shear still being quite low I am not sure why the NHC would have any strong reason to lower intensity level predictions.

Ill also add that lowering intensity now would cause people to take this storm even less seriously. There are already plenty of complacent people in Florida thinking it won't do much so lowering the intensity forecast would just breed more complacency. Not the best move

[skillz305]

Is it me or are more of the models showing a crossing central Florida track? Per 12z model track guidance

[p1nheadlarry]

GFS was also the first to see the stall/slowdown, I remember when so many folks were very insistent that a stall isn't possible in the Gulf in late September

Last Friday (00Z?), the GFS had a stall on the east coast (Melbourne?) and the Canadian had the stall on the west coast (St. Pete?). In fact, the Canadian's Friday model is pretty close to the Euro's path today, if I'm remembering all these models correctly.

The GFS and CMC moved around points in the gulf, when you have that kind of spread your chances of nailing the landfall point increase considerably.

It is possible to have the same solution over and over again and still be wrong

[karenfromheaven]

06Z EPS, following the OPs, Significant W Shift!

https://i.imgur.com/C7GxRmn.png

Looks like the GEFS now. The rightmost tracks feel the pull from the low. The earlier GEFS right tracks mirrored the Euro quite closely. The center and left tracks see the door to the low slammed shut, and feel the high over CONUS slowing and blocking them. The GFS operational would have been closer to the Euro if the left hand tracks had been discarded.

[cane5]

Is it me or are more of the models showing a crossing central Florida track? Per 12z model track guidance

Sorry for the ignorance is 12z the German model ?

[CronkPSU]

Last Friday (00Z?), the GFS had a stall on the east coast (Melbourne?) and the Canadian had the stall on the west coast (St. Pete?). In fact, the Canadian's Friday model is pretty close to the Euro's path today, if I'm remembering all these models correctly.

The GFS and CMC moved around points in the gulf, when you have that kind of spread your chances of nailing the landfall point increase considerably.

It is possible to have the same solution over and over again and still be wrong

as my wife likes to remind me!!!

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... 72 Hours

06z EURO... 72 Hours

Finally, the Euro is W of the GFS... Now we can start complaining the Euro has a west bias... j/k