ATL: IAN - Models

[chris_fit]

06z EPS coming in pretty W of earlier runs i think... Concentrated between SW FL and big bend.

[NDG]

12z SHIPS still giving it high chances for rapid intensification in the next 72 hours

SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 67% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

[NDG]

06z EPS coming in pretty W of earlier runs i think... Concentrated between SW FL and big bend.

So its earlier run they were concentrated just south of Tampa, sounds like they are now concentrated near Tampa?

[toad strangler]

south florida force field holding strong.....

Shields Up! lol

So it looks like the more N & W solutions likely will be sheared messes so the Eastern peninsula likely to see weather regardless.

[NDG]

Here are the 06z EPS ensembles. Bulls eye near Tampa Bay if not a little south of it.

[Category6]

I know we’re still about 4 days out, but is it safe to assume that SE FL (specifically Miami and Fort Lauderdale) are out of the woods? Seems like the worst possible outcome here would be some feeder bands containing TS force wind gusts.

[CronkPSU]

I know we’re still about 4 days out, but is it safe to assume that SE FL (specifically Miami and Fort Lauderdale) are out of the woods? Seems like the worst possible outcome here would be some feeder bands containing TS force wind gusts.

Not at all…would not put your guard down til we get a real center and models figure out that trough but I would feel a lot better than I did three days ago

[toad strangler]

Not often you see this! Wanting more time over the GOM waters to help tear Ian apart. In line with what wxman57 was saying this morning about the probable unfavorable upper environment the further west it goes.

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1573671250005630976

[ScottNAtlanta]

I hear lots of talk about shear, but if this is a cat 3 or higher coming into the GOM, shear is not going to be much help. Look at Fiona which endured much higher shear than is forecast possibly for Ian almost throughout and maintained as a Cat 4. Strong storms create their own environment many times. Don't put much hope into shear causing much weakening if this is a strong cat 3 into the gulf.

[Michele B]

Based purely on a gut instinct I feel like the windshield wiping has reached its peak now and we'll see slight east shifts in the next model runs. This is partially based on the fact that the Euro showed the SW center relocation and still went quite far east with respect to the other models. If so a Tampa landfall sounds like a possible scenario. But in its short life so far Ian has been one of the most difficult storms to track this season so there's still a lot of uncertainty.

But even TWC mets are "warning" of shifts more to the west. I think they're setting up to adjust the cone westward a bit.

[Michele B]

I know we’re still about 4 days out, but is it safe to assume that SE FL (specifically Miami and Fort Lauderdale) are out of the woods? Seems like the worst possible outcome here would be some feeder bands containing TS force wind gusts.

At least until a storm is north of your latitude do you EVER think about ruling anything out.

[Michele B]

I hear lots of talk about shear, but if this is a cat 3 or higher coming into the GOM, shear is not going to be much help. Look at Fiona which endured much higher shear than is forecast possibly for Ian almost throughout and maintained as a Cat 4. Strong storms create their own environment many times. Don't put much hope into shear causing much weakening if this is a strong cat 3 into the gulf.

I got the sense that the weakening trend many are mentioning is because of the very strong cold front (and accompanying drier air) ready to dive into the south and GoM.

[FLWeatherX]

Based purely on a gut instinct I feel like the windshield wiping has reached its peak now and we'll see slight east shifts in the next model runs. This is partially based on the fact that the Euro showed the SW center relocation and still went quite far east with respect to the other models. If so a Tampa landfall sounds like a possible scenario. But in its short life so far Ian has been one of the most difficult storms to track this season so there's still a lot of uncertainty.

But even TWC mets are "warning" of shifts more to the west. I think they're setting up to adjust the cone westward a bit.

Setting up the cone westward but not the track necessarily. Maybe slightly north near Tampa. 5pm update will really be important

[verruckt]

I know we’re still about 4 days out, but is it safe to assume that SE FL (specifically Miami and Fort Lauderdale) are out of the woods? Seems like the worst possible outcome here would be some feeder bands containing TS force wind gusts.

Not at all…would not put your guard down til we get a real center and models figure out that trough but I would feel a lot better than I did three days ago

This.

Models are just doing their usual back and forth at 5 days. Assuming you're "all clear" because a model moved off in 12 hours doesn't mean you're "all clear". Especially when sufficient recon data has not been ingested - it's wishcasting.

Look at the cone. All of FL is still within the 5 day window. Don't let your guard down, because you're being given ample time to prepare.

No one really knows yet where it will go in Florida at this point, and being a native Floridian who has gone through a few, this could change at any moment.

[jlauderdal]

Based purely on a gut instinct I feel like the windshield wiping has reached its peak now and we'll see slight east shifts in the next model runs. This is partially based on the fact that the Euro showed the SW center relocation and still went quite far east with respect to the other models. If so a Tampa landfall sounds like a possible scenario. But in its short life so far Ian has been one of the most difficult storms to track this season so there's still a lot of uncertainty.

But even TWC mets are "warning" of shifts more to the west. I think they're setting up to adjust the cone westward a bit.

Setting up the cone westward but not the track necessarily. Maybe slightly north near Tampa. 5pm update will really be important

The cone follows the track, they don't set the cone, they set the track and the cone is nothing more than error over the last 5 years.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

[FLWeatherX]

I know we’re still about 4 days out, but is it safe to assume that SE FL (specifically Miami and Fort Lauderdale) are out of the woods? Seems like the worst possible outcome here would be some feeder bands containing TS force wind gusts.

Not at all…would not put your guard down til we get a real center and models figure out that trough but I would feel a lot better than I did three days ago

This.

Models are just doing their usual back and forth at 5 days. Assuming you're "all clear" because a model moved off in 12 hours doesn't mean you're "all clear". Especially when sufficient recon data has not been ingested - it's wishcasting.

Look at the cone. All of FL is still within the 5 day window. Don't let your guard down, because you're being given ample time to prepare.

No one really knows yet where it will go in Florida at this point, and being a native Floridian who has gone through a few, this could change at any moment.

Great example is Charley. Supposed to hit Tampa but went south because it got stronger. Honestly feel like anything going north can eventually end up back south and East. Just have to watch and see.

[FLWeatherX]

But even TWC mets are "warning" of shifts more to the west. I think they're setting up to adjust the cone westward a bit.

Setting up the cone westward but not the track necessarily. Maybe slightly north near Tampa. 5pm update will really be important

The cone follows the track, they don't set the cone, they set the track and the cone is nothing more than error over the last 5 years.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Yeah, just meant they could change track slightly north. Wobbles are going to happen 5 days out. Tonight’s Euro run is key if this west trend is real.

[Beachside]

I know we’re still about 4 days out, but is it safe to assume that SE FL (specifically Miami and Fort Lauderdale) are out of the woods? Seems like the worst possible outcome here would be some feeder bands containing TS force wind gusts.

At least until a storm is north of your latitude do you EVER think about ruling anything out.

Of course that is usually true...but Jeanne back in '04 fooled me...did a loop d loop out in the Atlantic and came darn near right at me.

[jfk08c]

Small bump north from the NHC. Now just north of Tampa Bay

[pcolaman]

But even TWC mets are "warning" of shifts more to the west. I think they're setting up to adjust the cone westward a bit.

Setting up the cone westward but not the track necessarily. Maybe slightly north near Tampa. 5pm update will really be important

The cone follows the track, they don't set the cone, they set the track and the cone is nothing more than error over the last 5 years.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

People get hyped up when the cone hits them and that's reasonable. But like you said the cone of error for 4 to 5 days out could have major impacts down the road for anyone in the cone. Storm is just getting it's act together and if the storm is south of you, you watch an prepare for a storm. Putting trust in one model is always not the best of ideas but to take the majority of the models and cone of error is probably your best bet. There will always be model wars and speculation of where the storm goes. Just be prepared to have the safest plans in place just in case.