ATL: IAN - Models

[Blown Away]

06 GFS… Notice it shows a little E jog after landfall, I think the GFS landfall point was a bit N of Ian now, but it appears Ian is moving slowly @ENE?

[cane5]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sxpnqP9D/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-fh6-36.gif [/url]
06 GFS… Notice it shows a little E jog after landfall, I think the GFS landfall point was a bit N of Ian now, but it appears Ian is moving slowly @ENE?

Should be interesting trough is weakening and high pressure ridge in place.

[FLLurker32]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sxpnqP9D/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-fh6-36.gif [/url]
06 GFS… Notice it shows a little E jog after landfall, I think the GFS landfall point was a bit N of Ian now, but it appears Ian is moving slowly @ENE?

Intensity is underdone, of course. That may play into how it interacts. I’m concerned it may not weaken to below hurricane strength as it moves through the state.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1575147958256951296

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: 2nd landfall much further north at Myrtle Beach instead of Charleston and near a cat 2!

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 26.0N 82.7W 949 92
0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 27.4N 81.4W 978 47
1200UTC 29.09.2022 24 28.5N 80.6W 987 51
0000UTC 30.09.2022 36 29.7N 79.5W 983 59
1200UTC 30.09.2022 48 31.5N 79.0W 976 62
0000UTC 01.10.2022 60 34.6N 79.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 72 36.3N 79.5W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 84 37.5N 79.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 02.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

[Vdogg]

12Z UKMET: 2nd landfall much further north at Myrtle Beach instead of Charleston and near a cat 2!

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 26.0N 82.7W 949 92
0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 27.4N 81.4W 978 47
1200UTC 29.09.2022 24 28.5N 80.6W 987 51
0000UTC 30.09.2022 36 29.7N 79.5W 983 59
1200UTC 30.09.2022 48 31.5N 79.0W 976 62
0000UTC 01.10.2022 60 34.6N 79.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 72 36.3N 79.5W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 84 37.5N 79.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 02.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

Knew it as soon as I saw Hmon and Hafs book it due east in their last run. I think ultimately the east trend may settle around Hatteras, which is not good considering more time over water.

[pgoss11]

12Z UKMET: 2nd landfall much further north at Myrtle Beach instead of Charleston and near a cat 2!

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 26.0N 82.7W 949 92
0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 27.4N 81.4W 978 47
1200UTC 29.09.2022 24 28.5N 80.6W 987 51
0000UTC 30.09.2022 36 29.7N 79.5W 983 59
1200UTC 30.09.2022 48 31.5N 79.0W 976 62
0000UTC 01.10.2022 60 34.6N 79.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 72 36.3N 79.5W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 84 37.5N 79.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 02.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

The UKMET did well with Ian. So the UKMET doesn’t have Ian moving NW after emerging into the Atlantic?

[Vdogg]

12Z UKMET: 2nd landfall much further north at Myrtle Beach instead of Charleston and near a cat 2!

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 26.0N 82.7W 949 92
0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 27.4N 81.4W 978 47
1200UTC 29.09.2022 24 28.5N 80.6W 987 51
0000UTC 30.09.2022 36 29.7N 79.5W 983 59
1200UTC 30.09.2022 48 31.5N 79.0W 976 62
0000UTC 01.10.2022 60 34.6N 79.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 72 36.3N 79.5W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 84 37.5N 79.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 02.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

The UKMET did well with Ian. So the UKMET doesn’t have Ian moving NW after emerging into the Atlantic?

I never bought NW, very unusual trajectory for our area with a gulf storm. I think the turn will eventually be made, but not nearly as sharp as initially forecast.

[MrJames]

12z UKMET

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: 2nd landfall much further north at Myrtle Beach instead of Charleston and near a cat 2!

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 26.0N 82.7W 949 92
0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 27.4N 81.4W 978 47
1200UTC 29.09.2022 24 28.5N 80.6W 987 51
0000UTC 30.09.2022 36 29.7N 79.5W 983 59
1200UTC 30.09.2022 48 31.5N 79.0W 976 62
0000UTC 01.10.2022 60 34.6N 79.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 72 36.3N 79.5W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 84 37.5N 79.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 02.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

The UKMET did well with Ian. So the UKMET doesn’t have Ian moving NW after emerging into the Atlantic?

I never bought NW, very unusual trajectory for our area with a gulf storm. I think the turn will eventually be made, but not nearly as sharp as initially forecast.

Indeed, per history, a sharp NNW to NW turn into the SAV-CHS corridor and then well inland after a NE crossing over FL would be pretty close to unprecedented at least since 1851. That doesn't mean it can't happen, of course. But climo/history says to not bet too heavily on it if it is showing up a few days out on models. Let's see if the 12Z Euro changes their tune on this. The non-Euro/GFS model consensus is at least hinting at a trend away from this NW turn.

[Vdogg]

12z UKMET

https://i.imgur.com/eGwSnyC.gif

Now THIS looks plausible. Let's see if Euro latches on.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1575147958256951296?s=20&t=JXCHYJNv--I8Ots9UgiaFw

10 yrs ago i remember laughing about the HWRF always being the overdramatic one, but the last 5 yrs, theyre over the top bullish predictions seem to be more and more accurate.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[FLLurker32]

12z UKMET

https://i.imgur.com/eGwSnyC.gif

It would need to immediately go NE right now for this angle to verify. As of now satellite is still showing NNE.

[Vdogg]

12z UKMET

https://i.imgur.com/eGwSnyC.gif

It would need to immediately go NE right now for this angle to verify. As of now satellite is still showing NNE.

Radar appears to be NE. Satellite is hard to track at times. Use radar whenever available.

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET

https://i.imgur.com/eGwSnyC.gif

Now THIS looks plausible. Let's see if Euro latches on.

The 12Z Euro appears to be subtly latching on a correction at least somewhat in the UKMET direction with a SE coast landfall that may now be further north than Savannah at least. I'll have to see the detailed maps later.

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET

https://i.imgur.com/eGwSnyC.gif

Now THIS looks plausible. Let's see if Euro latches on.

The 12Z Euro appears to be subtly latching on a correction at least somewhat in the UKMET direction with a SE coast landfall that may now be further north than Savannah at least. I'll have to see the detailed maps later.

I was largely wrong as the detailed 12Z Euro 6 hour maps still show a SAV/Hilton Head landfall.

[ColdMiser123]

There are many EPS members that show reintensification before another landfall into South Carolina. The forecasting aspect of this isn't done yet, and posters in the Carolinas should keep an eye on this.